Expectations of a Fed rate cut and escalating geopolitical tensions pushed gold above $3,440 and approaching $3,500.
2025-09-01 14:45:09
Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward trend in early trading on Monday, reaching a high of $3,486, its highest level since April. Market consensus suggests the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with the CME tool showing an 87% probability of a rate cut.
This has led to a continued weakening of the US dollar, providing support for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. At the same time, market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, further weakening the appeal of the US dollar and increasing the safe-haven value of gold.
According to market research, analysts pointed out that "the current rise in gold prices is not only the result of interest rate expectations, but also reflects the shaking of investors' confidence in US dollar assets."
Geopolitical risks have recently intensified significantly, with escalating conflicts in Eastern Europe and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, further fueling safe-haven buying. Russia has launched an intensive offensive against Ukrainian cities, prompting Ukraine to vow retaliation. Meanwhile, Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip have expanded. Safe-haven demand has become a key support for gold bulls.
An international investment bank commented: "At least 30% of the current rise in gold prices comes from the escalation of geopolitical tensions."
From the daily chart, gold opened up new upward space after breaking through the upper edge of the consolidation range of $3,440. The RSI indicator is close to the overbought zone, indicating that it may encounter psychological resistance near $3,500 in the short term.
However, the $3,440 and $3,400 levels have formed solid support. If it falls below $3,400, gold could pull back to the $3,372-3,350 range. The overall market remains strong, with active bargain hunting.
Editor's opinion:
Gold's recent surge is driven by expectations of macroeconomic easing and risk aversion. A weakening dollar and global uncertainty are combining to create conditions for gold prices to continue their push towards historic highs after breaking through a key range. While there may be short-term technical adjustments, in the medium to long term, if the Fed's policy turning point is confirmed, gold's strategic value will continue to rise.
This has led to a continued weakening of the US dollar, providing support for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. At the same time, market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, further weakening the appeal of the US dollar and increasing the safe-haven value of gold.
According to market research, analysts pointed out that "the current rise in gold prices is not only the result of interest rate expectations, but also reflects the shaking of investors' confidence in US dollar assets."
Geopolitical risks have recently intensified significantly, with escalating conflicts in Eastern Europe and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, further fueling safe-haven buying. Russia has launched an intensive offensive against Ukrainian cities, prompting Ukraine to vow retaliation. Meanwhile, Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip have expanded. Safe-haven demand has become a key support for gold bulls.
An international investment bank commented: "At least 30% of the current rise in gold prices comes from the escalation of geopolitical tensions."
From the daily chart, gold opened up new upward space after breaking through the upper edge of the consolidation range of $3,440. The RSI indicator is close to the overbought zone, indicating that it may encounter psychological resistance near $3,500 in the short term.
However, the $3,440 and $3,400 levels have formed solid support. If it falls below $3,400, gold could pull back to the $3,372-3,350 range. The overall market remains strong, with active bargain hunting.
Editor's opinion:
Gold's recent surge is driven by expectations of macroeconomic easing and risk aversion. A weakening dollar and global uncertainty are combining to create conditions for gold prices to continue their push towards historic highs after breaking through a key range. While there may be short-term technical adjustments, in the medium to long term, if the Fed's policy turning point is confirmed, gold's strategic value will continue to rise.
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