Brent crude futures fell 0.45% to $66.07 a barrel in Asian trading on Friday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 0.5% to $62.00. In the previous session, Brent and WTI had already fallen 1.7% and 2%, respectively, indicating that market sentiment remained under pressure.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted in its monthly report that global supply will grow faster than expected in 2025, driven by OPEC+'s production increase plan. Meanwhile, OPEC maintained its high growth forecast for global demand in 2025 and 2026, emphasizing that the global economy remains on a solid growth trajectory.

OPEC+ decided at its latest meeting to further increase production quotas from October, while Saudi Arabia has made it clear that it hopes to regain market share by increasing production.

Saudi state energy company Aramco plans to export about 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil to the Asian giant in October, up from 1.43 million bpd in September, according to market research.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the market is questioning whether the Asian giant can absorb more crude oil in the long term and maintain low levels of OECD inventories, while investors are also paying attention to potential new sanctions on Russian oil.

The International Energy Agency pointed out that Russia, the world's second-largest crude oil producer since 2024, saw its revenue from crude oil and oil products fall to one of the lowest levels since the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict in August.

There are also market sources saying that Russia plans to reduce ESPO crude oil exports from the Far Eastern port of Kozmino to 4 million tons (about 1 million barrels per day) in September, down from 4.2 million tons in August.

In the United States, consumer prices recorded the largest increase in seven months in August, and the number of first-time unemployment claims unexpectedly rose. Therefore, the market expects that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week to stimulate growth, which may indirectly benefit crude oil demand in the future.

However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels last week, exacerbating concerns about oversupply.

From the daily chart, WTI crude oil has been under pressure recently from the downtrend line resistance above $65, and has failed to break through after several rebounds, indicating that the market lacks upward momentum. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI is hovering in the neutral range, indicating that the bulls and bears are temporarily balanced.

However, if the price falls below the key support of $61.50, it may further drop to the round mark of $60. On the contrary, if it can effectively stand above $63.50, it is expected to usher in a phased repair rebound.

Editor's opinion:
The oil market is currently caught in a dual game of increasing supply and demand concerns. OPEC+'s production increases and Saudi Arabia's efforts to seize market share have heightened expectations of oversupply. Rising US inventories and weak consumption data are also undermining demand support.

Although the Fed's possible interest rate cut will be beneficial to oil prices in the medium and long term, in the short term, oil prices still face downward pressure, especially as market confidence is gradually turning cautious.