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[The Specter of Inflation Resurfaces: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision in Suspicion] ⑴ A Reuters poll of economists shows that most respondents expect the Bank of England to maintain its key policy rate at 4.00% at its September 18th meeting to address rising inflationary pressures. However, market expectations for future rate cuts are subtly shifting, with a growing consensus that the cut cycle for the rest of the year may be over. ⑵ Currently, UK inflation has climbed to nearly double the Bank of England's 2% target, with forecasts suggesting it will reach 4% in September and may not return to target until mid-2027. Although inflation briefly dipped last year, cost-of-living pressures are unlikely to ease in the short term, and the Bank of England Governor recently expressed uncertainty about the pace of rate cuts, complicating policymaking. ⑶ Among the 67 economists surveyed, while a majority (42) predicted a 25 basis point rate cut next quarter, the proportion of respondents who believe rates will remain unchanged for the rest of the year has risen significantly to over 30%, significantly higher than the 15% in August. This shift may indicate a cautious adjustment in market expectations for the Bank of England's easing policy. ⑷ James Rossiter, head of macro strategy at TD Securities, pointed out that the upcoming inflation and labor data will be crucial in determining whether there will be a rate cut in November. If inflation falls slightly and the labor market remains weak, the conditions for a rate cut will be more mature; conversely, any unexpected rise in inflation may change this expectation. ⑸ Analysts pointed out that although the UK has performed well among the G7 countries, this is largely due to government spending and relatively weak private demand. Continued inflation and high interest rates will continue to squeeze household real income and put pressure on private sector demand. Economic growth is expected to slow to a quarter-on-quarter level of 0.2%-0.4% in 2026.