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[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Market Diverges, Pre-Holiday Inventory Replenishment Expectations Support Costs] ⑴ Rebar faces high inventory pressure, with warehouse receipts continuing to increase. However, raw material supply disruptions and the expectation of pre-holiday inventory replenishment are providing strong support for costs. The short-term center of gravity may shift slightly upward, with the 01 contract trading range indicated at 3140-3200 yuan. ⑵ On the capital side, the top 20 positions in the 01 rebar contract saw a reduction in positions, with a larger reduction in long positions, indicating cautious market sentiment. However, the 01 hot-rolled coil contract saw an increase in positions, with a significant increase in short positions, and position changes were biased towards the bearish side. ⑶ On the iron ore supply side, Brazilian shipments have returned to normal, global shipments remain high, and hot metal production remains high. Port inventories fluctuate slightly, suggesting minimal real-world conflicts. ⑷ Expectations of pre-holiday inventory replenishment are supporting ore prices. In the short term, attention should be paid to the production restrictions in Tangshan. In the medium term, the shipment status of the Simandou project (whether the first batch of cargoes can be shipped normally in November and December) remains to be monitored. Weak market expectations have been somewhat addressed, with the extent of the decline in hot metal production being a key concern. 5. Coking coal market sentiment has improved with rising market prices, with auction prices rising and the unsold rate remaining low. The crackdown on overproduction at coal mines has entered its realization phase, and pre-holiday inventory restocking is driving short-term upward momentum. 6. However, caution should be exercised against the risk of a correction due to a continued weakening basis (spot prices failing to keep up with the market, leading to widening premiums) and profit-taking capital exiting the market. Strategically, a diversified allocation strategy across the supply chain should be maintained. 7. In the coke market, profit-driven coke companies are actively producing, downstream hot metal production remains high, and coupled with the expectation of pre-holiday inventory restocking, cost support is evident, making further price increases more difficult. However, market valuations are already high, so chasing the upward trend is not advisable. Attention should be paid to the impact of production restrictions. 8. Manganese silicon is insufficiently driven by its own upward momentum. Manganese ore shipments remain stable, factory operations have rebounded, and factory inventories have increased slightly. Expectations of declining demand persist, and prices may fluctuate at a low level, following the raw material market.