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[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector Fluctuates Strong, Geopolitical Risks Support Oil Prices] ⑴ OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production in October has been gradually digested by the market, and geopolitical factors have recently dominated crude oil market fluctuations. ⑵ Trump's threat of new economic sanctions against Russia, coupled with continued attacks on Russian refineries and oil depots by Ukraine, maintains a short-term geopolitical sentiment premium, and oil prices are expected to have limited downward momentum. ⑶ US sanctions on some terminal and storage operators, coupled with uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East situation, have led to a strong fuel oil price differential. We do not recommend an overly bearish outlook, and expect low-level fluctuations. ⑷ Sustained buying sentiment in the midstream glass market has led to slight adjustments in spot prices, but anti-involutionary measures and the spread of news regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan have driven upward fluctuations in the market. ⑸ Short-term premiums are high, so chasing highs is not recommended. However, given the seasonal improvement in glass demand in September and October, medium-term optimism is warranted, with a target entry range of 1200-1210. ⑹ The soda ash market is stabilizing, with prices firming. Some companies are raising prices slightly. The spot-futures basis shows a discount of 110 RMB for the Hebei 01 contract delivered to warehouses, and a discount of 95 RMB for deliveries to Shahe. ⑺ Although the long-term outlook is weak, the downstream glass market is currently strong, upstream coal costs are stabilizing, and anti-involution sentiment is resurfacing, leading to a significant rebound in the market. Given the weak basis, short-term buying is discouraged, with a focus on dips. ⑻ Liquid caustic soda sales in Shandong Province are sluggish, with major downstream purchase prices falling by 18 RMB. Most companies are accumulating inventory, and retail prices have dropped by 10-40 RMB. Other regions are currently stable. ⑼ Given the expectation of continued inventory replenishment before the National Day holiday at the end of the month and the continued high production of alumina, the outlook for the caustic soda market is optimistic. ⑽ The spot price of methanol in Taicang is 2,292 RMB, down 3 RMB month-on-month. Import supply remains high recently, and port inventory pressures may continue to increase, suppressing the market. ⑾ The market switches back and forth in trading logic during the period of high inventory at ports and expected peak season, and the market fluctuates widely. Considering the strong short-term commodity sentiment, methanol can be regarded as fluctuating strongly.