Precious Metals: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated overnight that interest rates remain moderately restrictive and that US stocks are overvalued. He reiterated that the Fed faces the dual challenges of rising inflation and declining employment, but offered no clear statement on whether to cut rates in October. Following Powell's remarks, both US stocks and precious metals retreated. Divisions within the Fed are currently intensifying. Bowman believes the current rate-cutting process is lagging behind the curve and supports three cuts this year, while Goolsbee suggests the Fed should exercise caution regarding further rate cuts. Overall, short-term positive news is limited. Long-term, amid global de-dollarization and geopolitical risks, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue. Long-term long positions are recommended. The reference range for Shanghai Gold 2512 is 830-860 yuan/gram, and the reference range for Shanghai Silver 2512 is 10,000-10,500 yuan/kilogram.


Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.29%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.21%, the STAR Market 50 Index fell 0.10%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.06%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.09%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.61%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.09%. Trading volume across the two markets totaled 2.494382 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 372.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan first-level sectors, the best-performing sectors were banks (1.52%), coal (1.11%), and power equipment (0.43%). The worst-performing sectors were social services (-3.11%), commerce and retail (-2.90%), and computers (-2.39%). Regarding basis, IH and IF basis strengthened slightly, while IC and IM basis weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are 0.80% and -3.40%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -14.40% and -16.40%, respectively. For hedging purposes, short positions may consider using quarterly contracts. Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dipped and then rebounded, experiencing significant intraday fluctuations. They closed slightly lower at the end of trading, but trading volume in both markets was slightly higher compared to the previous day. Looking at the performance of primary sectors, large-cap heavyweight sectors such as banks and coal, which have recently experienced significant declines, performed well, providing strong support for the index, while sectors such as computers and pharmaceuticals and biotechnology showed slight gains. Yesterday's index rebounded after a heavy decline, indicating continued recognition of the long-term investment value of the stock market and strong support flows. However, the market still lacks clear upward signals in the short term, and the short-term correction is far from over. On the other hand, as we approach mid-October, details of the next phase of economic development direction and goals may gradually emerge. The market is also expected to gradually shift towards trading in a new round of policy support, making the current market correction likely to conclude this week. The medium- and long-term support for the index from policies, macroeconomics and monetary liquidity remains unchanged. It is recommended to observe with a light position and buy on dips.

Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures fell on Tuesday. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year contract fell 0.67%, the 10-year contract fell 0.21%, the 5-year contract fell 0.13%, and the 2-year contract fell 0.05%. The yield on the active 30-year bond rose 1.6 basis points to 2.099%, the yield on the active 10-year bond rose 1.05 basis points to 1.798%, and the yield on the active 2-year bond rose 1.25 basis points to 1.425%. Inter-product spreads for futures: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL changed by 0.03 yuan, -0.04 yuan, and 0.08 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategies: Sentiment weakened again, with long-term bonds showing even greater weakness. The late-session rebound in the equity market exerted significant pressure. The September LPR rate remained unchanged. The postponement of interest rate cut expectations is positive for the bond market, and the cooling of expectations for strong stimulus is also positive for long-term bonds. The State Council Information Office press conference has concluded, but no unexpected policies have been released. Regarding operations, we are moderately optimistic in the short term, holding a light long position in TL, but remain cautious in the medium term. Cross-product strategy: The interest rate curve is expected to remain flat, so we should adopt an arbitrage strategy combining short (TS) and long (T). This arbitrage strategy currently outperforms unilateral strategies. Hedging strategy: The net basis has fallen back to its early September level, so we recommend a long basis portfolio.

Industrial silicon: After a surge, the market has returned to a sluggish state. Both transaction volume and open interest have declined, and the bull-bear market is weakening, with the market awaiting new stimulus. From a fundamental perspective, industrial silicon production is at a year-to-date high, with supply expected to increase further. Downstream polysilicon prices remain firm under policy guidance, but there remains the risk of production controls reducing industrial silicon consumption. The rest of the downstream market remains relatively stable. Overall, industrial silicon fundamentals lack significant bullish support, with market sentiment driven more by policy expectations. Be mindful of the risk of a market correction after the previous price surge. Opportunistically, a light short position is recommended, with the SI2511 contract trading range at 8,500-9,100 yuan/ton.

Ferroalloys: Viewpoint: Neutral alloy prices rebounded on reduced positions, with significant upward pressure. Spot market trading was average, with active futures and spot quotes. Downstream suppliers were restocking on demand, but this restocking is nearing its end. End-user steel demand has yet to see sustained improvement, and the post-holiday period remains a critical testing period, requiring caution. On the supply side, production has essentially peaked, with inventories decreasing slightly, but overall, they remain ample. Support from below is strong on the cost side, with ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices remaining around 5,500 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively. Focus will be on the implementation of macroeconomic policies and anti-involutionary policies in October. Viewpoint: A wait-and-see approach is recommended for futures trading ahead of the holiday.

Coke: Due to the impact of Typhoon Hakkar, heavy to torrential rain, with localized torrential downpours, is expected in eastern Fujian, central and southern Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan from September 23rd to 26th. At 7:00 PM on September 23rd, the Ministry of Water Resources activated a Level IV flood emergency response for Fujian, Guangxi, and Hainan, and upgraded Guangdong's Level IV emergency response to Level III. As of September 19th, coking plant inventories decreased by 14,300 tons, steel mill inventories increased by 113,800 tons, port inventories decreased by 10,100 tons, and total coke inventories increased by 89,400 tons.

Coking Coal: According to a bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major import ports of Ganqimaodu, Ceke, and Mandula will be closed from October 1 to 7, 2025, with normal customs clearance resuming on October 8. According to Mysteel statistics, the seven-day closure of the three major ports during the 2025 National Day and Holiday period will affect Mongolian coal imports by approximately 1.8756 million tons. As of September 19, mine inventories decreased by 217,300 tons, while those at coal washeries increased by 237,700 tons, those at coking plants increased by 568,700 tons, and those at steel mills decreased by 33,900 tons. Port inventories increased by 110,800 tons, for a total increase of 666,000 tons.

Rebar: Blast furnace steel mills are accelerating their resumption of production, with operating rates rebounding to high levels and daily hot metal output increasing significantly. Last week, rebar production fell by 54,800 tons to 2,064,500 tons. Social inventories decreased by 20,200 tons, while on-site inventories edged down by 15,600 tons. Apparent demand increased by 119,600 tons compared to the previous week. Market sentiment was skewed this week, with a significant decrease in speculative demand. Coupled with recent rainy weather in some regions, overall demand remained weak. Pre-holiday prices for construction steel are expected to fluctuate and remain weak.

Hot-rolled Coil (HRC): Last week, HRC production increased by 13,500 tons, while inventories edged up by 46,700 tons. Apparent demand fell by 43,400 tons to 3.2182 million tons. While steel mills are currently seeing narrowing profits, they are still profitable. This has led to a rapid recovery in production, but demand has improved only slightly. Overall HRC production is currently high, and destocking efforts are limited, with a slight increase in inventory again last week. We should monitor the progress of destocking efforts. If demand remains weak, prices remain at risk of a further decline. Strategically, target the 3050-3200 range for rebar 2601 and the 3300-3450 range for HRC 2601.

Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to forward this to "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]