Is there no such thing as a top at a high level? Observe the 4-hour chart to see where silver will go next.
2025-09-24 17:44:20
Spot silver prices fluctuated around $44.10/oz during the European session on Wednesday (September 24th). Having reached a high of $44.440/oz the previous trading day, the current price remains within a nearly 14-year high. Macroeconomic factors continue to weigh on the Federal Reserve's expectations of a 25bp rate cut in October, the perceived risk premium associated with geopolitical risks, and a tight physical market. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY 97.60, up 0.4%) strengthened again after retreating over the previous two days, placing a marginal constraint on silver bulls.
Policy expectations: CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a rate cut in October is about 93% (rising from 90% the previous day), and some markets are betting on a coherent path of further rate cuts in October and December, which provides an interest rate transmission that raises the valuation of interest-free assets such as silver.
Officials' signals diverged: Chairman Powell stressed the need to strike a balance between inflation stickiness and slowing employment, and warned against the risk of "excessive easing leading to inflation failing to achieve its full potential and being forced to retreat"; in contrast, Board Member Michelle Bowman advocated for faster interest rate cuts to hedge against weakening employment - this divergence makes the "medium- and short-term repricing" of the interest rate curve noisy, making the silver rally susceptible to high-frequency speech fluctuations.
Data Outlook: This week, focus will be on the final US Q2 GDP, durable goods orders, and the PCE price index. If the PCE continues to show a sticky upward trend, it will temporarily support the US dollar and suppress the risk premium of precious metals. Conversely, silver is expected to continue the bullish trend of interest rate cuts and falling inflation.
Geopolitical risks: NATO responded to the incident in Russian airspace, while the spillover effects of the Middle East situation remain lingering – safe-haven demand provides a supportive backdrop for silver. Furthermore, the US, while primarily a political statement, hinted at a potential "tougher round of tariffs" at the UN, nonetheless created a marginal disturbance in global risk appetite.
Supply and demand structure: The fundamentals continue to be a combination of "tight supply and stable demand", and the industrial demand for photovoltaics, automotive electric drives and electronic terminals remains resilient; India's imports are expected to rebound, and the surplus from the previous year will be digested at a relatively fast rate, strengthening the structural support of "tight inventory balance-price resilience".
The reflexivity of the US dollar and silver: Although interest rate expectations are dovish, the rebound of DXY to 97.60 suggests that "interest rate cuts do not necessarily mean a weak dollar" - when global growth expectations and risk appetite are simultaneously downgraded, the liquidity premium of the US dollar will rise temporarily, thereby creating hedging pressure on silver.
The four-hour chart (240 minutes) shows the middle Bollinger Band at 43.130, the upper Bollinger Band at 45.156, and the lower Bollinger Band at 41.103. The price is currently trading above the middle band and below the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a strong pullback and consolidation pattern within the rising channel. The recent candlestick chart shows sideways movement at a high level following consecutive days of gains, with the previous high marked at 44.440, and below this, there is a high level of concentrated trading at 44.20.
Bollinger Band structure: The bandwidth is expanding significantly and then entering a high-level convergence, suggesting that volatility is transitioning from "trend release" to "energy redistribution". If the upper band of 45.156 is not effectively broken and the band mouth narrows, the price will tend to do mean-reversion tug-of-war around the middle band of 43.130.
MACD(26,12,9): The market shows DIFF=0.505, DEA=0.505, and the histogram≈0. The two lines almost overlap above the zero axis, and the histogram has shifted from previous expansion to contraction, indicating that the upward momentum has slowed down but has not reversed. If a death cross occurs subsequently and returns to the zero axis, it will trigger a stronger signal of a technical retracement.
RSI (14): The value is 64.167, which is in the bullish zone but not extreme. It once approached the upper edge of 75 before falling back, forming a "high-level cooling" situation. This, together with the synchronous slowdown of MACD-Histogram, forms an indicator resonance, supporting the short-term rhythm judgment of "high-level oscillation and adjustment while moving forward".
Price structure and key points:
Resistance: 44.20 is the near-term observation level, above which is the stage high of 44.440; once it breaks through strongly and stabilizes, the bulls will face the trend strength watershed of 45.156 (Bollinger upper band).
Support: First, look at the dynamic support bands of 43.50 and 43.130 (middle band); if this fails, look for the static steps of 42.80/42.00. Further down, 41.115-40.874 is the key trough area of the previous period, which is the end point of strong support.
After silver surged to 44.440 recently, the market turned into a high-level sideways game:
Bullish market sentiment remains dominant, driven by the triangular support of "high probability of interest rate cuts (93%) + geopolitical risk aversion + resilience of industrial demand";
The bearish market sentiment received two "reflexive ammunition": first, the rebound of the US dollar to 97.60 triggered pricing comparison and profit-taking by bulls; second, the technical self-reinforcement brought about by the decline of MACD column and cooling of RSI in the four-hour chart.
From a crowd-psychological perspective, investors who missed out earlier are hesitant to chase the rally above 44, while early bulls are inclined to reduce their positions on rallies to manage the risk of a pullback. Sentiment hasn't cooled, but it has shifted from widespread optimism to increasing divergence, a typical sign of volatility moving from expansion to convergence.
Fundamentals: Rate cut bets heat up, risk aversion and supply and demand resonate, but the dollar's reflexivity remains
Policy expectations: CME FedWatch shows that the probability of a rate cut in October is about 93% (rising from 90% the previous day), and some markets are betting on a coherent path of further rate cuts in October and December, which provides an interest rate transmission that raises the valuation of interest-free assets such as silver.
Officials' signals diverged: Chairman Powell stressed the need to strike a balance between inflation stickiness and slowing employment, and warned against the risk of "excessive easing leading to inflation failing to achieve its full potential and being forced to retreat"; in contrast, Board Member Michelle Bowman advocated for faster interest rate cuts to hedge against weakening employment - this divergence makes the "medium- and short-term repricing" of the interest rate curve noisy, making the silver rally susceptible to high-frequency speech fluctuations.
Data Outlook: This week, focus will be on the final US Q2 GDP, durable goods orders, and the PCE price index. If the PCE continues to show a sticky upward trend, it will temporarily support the US dollar and suppress the risk premium of precious metals. Conversely, silver is expected to continue the bullish trend of interest rate cuts and falling inflation.
Geopolitical risks: NATO responded to the incident in Russian airspace, while the spillover effects of the Middle East situation remain lingering – safe-haven demand provides a supportive backdrop for silver. Furthermore, the US, while primarily a political statement, hinted at a potential "tougher round of tariffs" at the UN, nonetheless created a marginal disturbance in global risk appetite.
Supply and demand structure: The fundamentals continue to be a combination of "tight supply and stable demand", and the industrial demand for photovoltaics, automotive electric drives and electronic terminals remains resilient; India's imports are expected to rebound, and the surplus from the previous year will be digested at a relatively fast rate, strengthening the structural support of "tight inventory balance-price resilience".
The reflexivity of the US dollar and silver: Although interest rate expectations are dovish, the rebound of DXY to 97.60 suggests that "interest rate cuts do not necessarily mean a weak dollar" - when global growth expectations and risk appetite are simultaneously downgraded, the liquidity premium of the US dollar will rise temporarily, thereby creating hedging pressure on silver.
Technical aspects:
The four-hour chart (240 minutes) shows the middle Bollinger Band at 43.130, the upper Bollinger Band at 45.156, and the lower Bollinger Band at 41.103. The price is currently trading above the middle band and below the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a strong pullback and consolidation pattern within the rising channel. The recent candlestick chart shows sideways movement at a high level following consecutive days of gains, with the previous high marked at 44.440, and below this, there is a high level of concentrated trading at 44.20.
Bollinger Band structure: The bandwidth is expanding significantly and then entering a high-level convergence, suggesting that volatility is transitioning from "trend release" to "energy redistribution". If the upper band of 45.156 is not effectively broken and the band mouth narrows, the price will tend to do mean-reversion tug-of-war around the middle band of 43.130.
MACD(26,12,9): The market shows DIFF=0.505, DEA=0.505, and the histogram≈0. The two lines almost overlap above the zero axis, and the histogram has shifted from previous expansion to contraction, indicating that the upward momentum has slowed down but has not reversed. If a death cross occurs subsequently and returns to the zero axis, it will trigger a stronger signal of a technical retracement.
RSI (14): The value is 64.167, which is in the bullish zone but not extreme. It once approached the upper edge of 75 before falling back, forming a "high-level cooling" situation. This, together with the synchronous slowdown of MACD-Histogram, forms an indicator resonance, supporting the short-term rhythm judgment of "high-level oscillation and adjustment while moving forward".
Price structure and key points:
Resistance: 44.20 is the near-term observation level, above which is the stage high of 44.440; once it breaks through strongly and stabilizes, the bulls will face the trend strength watershed of 45.156 (Bollinger upper band).
Support: First, look at the dynamic support bands of 43.50 and 43.130 (middle band); if this fails, look for the static steps of 42.80/42.00. Further down, 41.115-40.874 is the key trough area of the previous period, which is the end point of strong support.
Market sentiment observation: from "chasing high" to "trial and error", the sentiment is cooling down marginally
After silver surged to 44.440 recently, the market turned into a high-level sideways game:
Bullish market sentiment remains dominant, driven by the triangular support of "high probability of interest rate cuts (93%) + geopolitical risk aversion + resilience of industrial demand";
The bearish market sentiment received two "reflexive ammunition": first, the rebound of the US dollar to 97.60 triggered pricing comparison and profit-taking by bulls; second, the technical self-reinforcement brought about by the decline of MACD column and cooling of RSI in the four-hour chart.
From a crowd-psychological perspective, investors who missed out earlier are hesitant to chase the rally above 44, while early bulls are inclined to reduce their positions on rallies to manage the risk of a pullback. Sentiment hasn't cooled, but it has shifted from widespread optimism to increasing divergence, a typical sign of volatility moving from expansion to convergence.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
