Gold and silver are under pressure amid conventional profit-taking
2025-10-10 00:49:37
Gold and silver futures weakened during U.S. trading on Thursday (October 9th). This followed Wednesday's record highs for gold and a 14-year high for silver, prompting short-term futures traders to take profits. The current U.S. government shutdown, coupled with other geopolitical uncertainties, has maintained steady demand for safe-haven precious metals, which will provide short-term support for both precious metals. December gold futures fell $70.80 to $3,999.70 (currently over a dozen dollars above spot gold), while December silver futures fell $1.424 to $47.57.
Global stock markets saw mixed performance overnight, but overall they showed strength. After hitting record highs overnight, US stock indexes are expected to remain stable when the New York market opens.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting indicate further interest rate cuts are possible this year. The minutes of the September FOMC meeting, released Wednesday afternoon, indicate that committee members were open to further rate cuts this year, but most remained cautious due to concerns about inflation. Most members believed further monetary easing would be appropriate for the remainder of the year, and new projections indicate officials anticipate two more quarter-point rate cuts before the end of the year. Participants emphasized the importance of a balanced approach in achieving the committee's employment and inflation goals as they considered their next steps. At the meeting, Fed officials voted 11-1 to lower the federal funds rate range by 0.25 percentage points to 4%-4.25%, the first rate cut of the year. Newly appointed official Stephen Miran dissented, having advocated for a half-point rate cut. The market reacted modestly to the minutes, as they contained no surprises.
The bond market is signaling the possibility of "increased volatility" once US economic data is released. While there's no immediate sign of an end to the US government shutdown, volatility is expected to rise once the backlog of US economic data begins to roll out. This is the view of US Treasury traders, who are often considered "the most discerning group in the market." Delayed US economic data include reports on employment and inflation.
A Bloomberg report stated: "Data delays could complicate economic data collection, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to determine whether to implement further easing policies; options trading activity shows that investors are seeking to hedge against various Fed policy scenarios. Traders are preparing for potential turmoil in the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market, and options pricing suggests that market volatility is likely once the data is released; some predict that price movements could be more volatile if the data deviates significantly from expectations."
Israel and Hamas are nearing an end to their war. Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement to release all hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, a significant step toward ending the two-year conflict. The agreement, brokered by the United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, came after several days of indirect negotiations between the warring parties at the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. Under the terms of the agreement, Israel will release Palestinian prisoners and increase aid supplies to the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, Israeli troops will withdraw in phases, ultimately to a buffer zone just inside the Gaza border.
Key external market trends today are as follows: the U.S. dollar index rose slightly and is at a nine-week high; crude oil prices fell slightly and are currently trading at around $61.70 per barrel; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently at 4.148%.
Technically, December gold futures bulls have the significant overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is pushing futures prices above the key resistance level of $4,100.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below key technical support at $3,850.00. First resistance is seen at the all-time high of $4,081.00, followed by $4,100.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,019.20, followed by $4,000.00.
(Comex Gold Daily Chart Source: Yihuitong)
December silver futures bulls also have the significant overall technical advantage in the near-term. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above key technical resistance at $50.00. Bears' next downside price objective is closing prices below key support at $45.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $49.195, followed by $50.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $47.85, followed by $47.00.
(Comex Silver Daily Chart Source: Yihuitong)
Global stock markets saw mixed performance overnight, but overall they showed strength. After hitting record highs overnight, US stock indexes are expected to remain stable when the New York market opens.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting indicate further interest rate cuts are possible this year. The minutes of the September FOMC meeting, released Wednesday afternoon, indicate that committee members were open to further rate cuts this year, but most remained cautious due to concerns about inflation. Most members believed further monetary easing would be appropriate for the remainder of the year, and new projections indicate officials anticipate two more quarter-point rate cuts before the end of the year. Participants emphasized the importance of a balanced approach in achieving the committee's employment and inflation goals as they considered their next steps. At the meeting, Fed officials voted 11-1 to lower the federal funds rate range by 0.25 percentage points to 4%-4.25%, the first rate cut of the year. Newly appointed official Stephen Miran dissented, having advocated for a half-point rate cut. The market reacted modestly to the minutes, as they contained no surprises.
The bond market is signaling the possibility of "increased volatility" once US economic data is released. While there's no immediate sign of an end to the US government shutdown, volatility is expected to rise once the backlog of US economic data begins to roll out. This is the view of US Treasury traders, who are often considered "the most discerning group in the market." Delayed US economic data include reports on employment and inflation.
A Bloomberg report stated: "Data delays could complicate economic data collection, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to determine whether to implement further easing policies; options trading activity shows that investors are seeking to hedge against various Fed policy scenarios. Traders are preparing for potential turmoil in the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market, and options pricing suggests that market volatility is likely once the data is released; some predict that price movements could be more volatile if the data deviates significantly from expectations."
Israel and Hamas are nearing an end to their war. Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement to release all hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, a significant step toward ending the two-year conflict. The agreement, brokered by the United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, came after several days of indirect negotiations between the warring parties at the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. Under the terms of the agreement, Israel will release Palestinian prisoners and increase aid supplies to the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, Israeli troops will withdraw in phases, ultimately to a buffer zone just inside the Gaza border.
Key external market trends today are as follows: the U.S. dollar index rose slightly and is at a nine-week high; crude oil prices fell slightly and are currently trading at around $61.70 per barrel; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently at 4.148%.
Technically, December gold futures bulls have the significant overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is pushing futures prices above the key resistance level of $4,100.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below key technical support at $3,850.00. First resistance is seen at the all-time high of $4,081.00, followed by $4,100.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,019.20, followed by $4,000.00.
(Comex Gold Daily Chart Source: Yihuitong)
December silver futures bulls also have the significant overall technical advantage in the near-term. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above key technical resistance at $50.00. Bears' next downside price objective is closing prices below key support at $45.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $49.195, followed by $50.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $47.85, followed by $47.00.
(Comex Silver Daily Chart Source: Yihuitong)
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