CITIC Construction Investment Futures: Safe-haven demand slightly decreased, precious metals fluctuated
2025-10-24 10:48:46
Precious Metals: After a period of pullback, precious metals are gradually stabilizing. The easing of tensions between Russia and Ukraine has lagged behind expectations. New Western sanctions against Russia and the postponement of the Trump-Putin meeting also highlight uncertainty in the peace process, thus maintaining support for precious metals. However, the recent agreement between China and the United States to hold trade consultations in Malaysia may provide room for easing trade tensions, weakening upward momentum for precious metals. Overall, short-term market risk aversion has declined slightly, and precious metals may enter a period of volatility. However, long-term support factors such as de-dollarization remain, and precious metals remain in a long-term bull market. Regarding short-term trading, be mindful of the risk of a pullback, while holding long-term long positions is recommended. The reference range for Shanghai Gold 2512 is 910-960 yuan/gram, and the reference range for Shanghai Silver 2512 is 11,200-11,800 yuan/kilogram.
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%, the STAR Market 50 Index fell 0.30%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.30%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.56%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.20%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.06%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 1.64391 trillion yuan, down approximately 23.947 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan primary sectors, the best performers were coal (1.75%), petroleum and petrochemicals (1.52%), and social services (1.07%). The worst performers were communications (-1.51%), real estate (-0.99%), and building materials (-0.91%). Regarding basis, the four major index futures saw slight strength. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are -0.20% and -2.80%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -9.20% and -11.60%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly contracts may be considered for short positions. Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower and fell throughout the morning session, but saw a slight increase in volume after the afternoon opening, ultimately closing slightly higher. Trading volume in both markets declined further. Yesterday, both markets continued to fluctuate with reduced volume. In terms of sector and style performance, the broad market dividend sector dominated, with primary sectors such as coal, petroleum, and petrochemicals leading the gains, while the communications sector continued to adjust. Yesterday afternoon, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce announced that China and the United States will commence a new round of trade negotiations in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th. The outcome of these negotiations will offset recent uncertainty surrounding Sino-US trade and warrants continued monitoring. Possibly influenced by this, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets saw a slight increase in volume, and the basis of the four major index futures also strengthened further. However, the further decrease in trading volume may indicate that market sentiment remains cautious. The short-term trend is still difficult to determine, so it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the long position configuration opportunities of IM.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%, the STAR Market 50 Index fell 0.3%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.3%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.56%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.2%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.06%, and the SZSE 100 ETF rose 0.14%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 1.64391 trillion yuan, down approximately 23.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Securities primary sectors, the best performers were coal (1.75%), petroleum and petrochemicals (1.52%), and social services (1.07%). The worst performers were building materials (-0.91%), real estate (-0.99%), and communications (-1.51%). Market volume has decreased significantly in recent days, and stock indices have entered a period of volatility after adjusting at high levels. In the medium to long term, supported by policy and funding, the A-share market is likely to continue its slow bull market. Furthermore, if further policy support is coupled with subsequent improvement in fundamentals, the stock index has ample room for upward movement. The market is likely to maintain a volatile upward trend over the long term. Currently, stock index futures are trading at a significant discount. During corrections, consider a covered call strategy involving long positions in stock index futures and selling out-of-the-money call options.
Treasury bond futures fell on Thursday. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year bond futures contract fell 0.34%, the 10-year contract fell 0.12%, the 5-year contract fell 0.07%, and the 2-year contract fell 0.02%. The yield on the active 30-year bond rose 0.75 basis points to 2.1925%, the yield on the active 10-year bond rose 0.55 basis points to 1.833%, and the yield on the active 2-year bond fell 0.5 basis points to 1.495%. Inter-product spreads for futures: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL changed by 0.061 yuan, -0.015 yuan, and 0.015 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategies: Bond futures prices fell, with short-term bonds showing slight strength. US-China trade talks will resume in Malaysia on the 24th, and rising market risk appetite is dampening bullish sentiment in bond futures. Looking ahead, we believe bond market pricing will return to fundamentals. With the quasi-deflationary landscape still intact, closely monitoring opportunities for long futures on dips is a key strategy for the near future. Cross-product strategies: TL's resilience is evident, and we recommend a short (TF) and long (TL) arbitrage strategy. Currently, arbitrage strategies outperform single-sided strategies. Hedging strategies: T-bond net basis has rebounded from low levels, but overall levels are not high. We recommend maintaining a long T-bond basis portfolio.
Industrial silicon futures rebounded yesterday, driven by market concerns about contract disputes affecting production at major manufacturers. Other upstream and downstream sectors saw limited movement. From a fundamental perspective, industrial silicon production is at a year-to-date high, with the trend of increasing production in northern China and decreasing production in southern China continuing. Xinjiang, in particular, saw an unexpectedly rapid ramp-up, significantly increasing supply. Downstream market demand remains stable in the short term, but potential polysilicon production cuts and silicone production reductions for maintenance also dampen optimistic demand expectations. Overall, industrial silicon fundamentals remain weak, and pressure remains. A light short position is recommended, with the SI2601 contract trading range at 8,600-9,200 yuan/ton.
Copper: Shanghai copper futures rose overnight to 86,730 yuan, while London copper also rose to around $10,815. Macroeconomic conditions are bullish. Domestically, the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China set the tone for the 15th Five-Year Plan, and policy expectations boosted market sentiment. Overseas, Chinese senior officials will travel to Malaysia from the 24th to the 27th for trade consultations with the US, signaling a return to negotiations between China and the US, and improving risk aversion. Fundamentals are neutral to bullish. Yesterday, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 505 tons to 36,000 tons, while LME copper inventories increased by 75 tons to 137,000 tons. Watch for an inventory inflection point. In the spot market, firm copper prices are cooling consumption, and coupled with routine inspections at upstream refineries such as Jinlong Copper, spot trading activity continues to cool. Overall, trade war concerns are expected to ease, domestic policy expectations are rising, and the global inventory inflection point is entering a window of opportunity. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen, driven by a combination of macro and industrial positives. Today's Shanghai copper main operating range is 86,200-87,200 yuan/ton. Strategically, we maintain the medium- and long-term buy-low-buy strategy.
Ferroalloys: Following the conclusion of a major meeting, policy measures remained within expectations, maintaining stable commodity market sentiment. Downstream procurement is primarily based on demand, with steel mills experiencing slight but limited production cuts. Supply remains high, with significant increases in silicomanganese mill inventories and relatively normal ferrosilicon levels. Cost support remains strong overall, but with rising futures prices, hedging margins are improving. If prices continue to rise, selling pressure may gradually emerge. Overall, while alloys are undervalued, upward momentum is lacking. Viewpoint: A wait-and-see approach is recommended for the 01 futures contract, while holding the out-of-the-money put option on the 12 contract.
Rebar: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China concluded, with limited focus on traditional growth drivers. The next window for economic policy negotiation will be the Central Economic Work Conference in December. Industry-wide, rebar production increased by 59,100 tons to 2.0707 million tons this week, while social inventories decreased by 189,300 tons to 4.3748 million tons. Factory inventories decreased by 1,000 tons to 1.8463 million tons, reflecting a 62,600-ton increase in apparent demand compared to last week. Demand for rebar is rebounding seasonally, while supply is also increasing. Despite the dual supply and demand situation, fundamentals are improving only slightly, and inventory reduction pressure persists. Steel prices remain vulnerable to pressure, but cost support is a factor, and prices are expected to remain volatile at low levels.
Hot-rolled coil (HCR): This week's production increased by 6,200 tons, while inventories decreased by 42,700 tons. Apparent demand rebounded by 111,800 tons to 3,267,300 tons. Short-term supply and demand pressures remain high, with peak season inventory reduction falling short of expectations. Demand performance remains acceptable, but concerns remain. A substantial improvement in basic fabric prices is unlikely, and HRC prices remain under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. We expect continued volatility and a bottoming-out trend. Strategically, rebar 2601 is recommended for trading in the 3000-3200 range, while HRC 2601 is recommended for trading in the 3200-3400 range.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
Stock Index Futures: In the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%, the STAR Market 50 Index fell 0.30%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.30%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.56%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.20%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.06%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 1.64391 trillion yuan, down approximately 23.947 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan primary sectors, the best performers were coal (1.75%), petroleum and petrochemicals (1.52%), and social services (1.07%). The worst performers were communications (-1.51%), real estate (-0.99%), and building materials (-0.91%). Regarding basis, the four major index futures saw slight strength. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts are -0.20% and -2.80%, respectively; while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts are -9.20% and -11.60%, respectively. For hedging purposes, quarterly contracts may be considered for short positions. Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower and fell throughout the morning session, but saw a slight increase in volume after the afternoon opening, ultimately closing slightly higher. Trading volume in both markets declined further. Yesterday, both markets continued to fluctuate with reduced volume. In terms of sector and style performance, the broad market dividend sector dominated, with primary sectors such as coal, petroleum, and petrochemicals leading the gains, while the communications sector continued to adjust. Yesterday afternoon, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce announced that China and the United States will commence a new round of trade negotiations in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th. The outcome of these negotiations will offset recent uncertainty surrounding Sino-US trade and warrants continued monitoring. Possibly influenced by this, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets saw a slight increase in volume, and the basis of the four major index futures also strengthened further. However, the further decrease in trading volume may indicate that market sentiment remains cautious. The short-term trend is still difficult to determine, so it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the long position configuration opportunities of IM.
Stock Index Options: Last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%, the STAR Market 50 Index fell 0.3%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.3%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.56%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.2%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.06%, and the SZSE 100 ETF rose 0.14%. Trading volume for the two markets totaled 1.64391 trillion yuan, down approximately 23.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Securities primary sectors, the best performers were coal (1.75%), petroleum and petrochemicals (1.52%), and social services (1.07%). The worst performers were building materials (-0.91%), real estate (-0.99%), and communications (-1.51%). Market volume has decreased significantly in recent days, and stock indices have entered a period of volatility after adjusting at high levels. In the medium to long term, supported by policy and funding, the A-share market is likely to continue its slow bull market. Furthermore, if further policy support is coupled with subsequent improvement in fundamentals, the stock index has ample room for upward movement. The market is likely to maintain a volatile upward trend over the long term. Currently, stock index futures are trading at a significant discount. During corrections, consider a covered call strategy involving long positions in stock index futures and selling out-of-the-money call options.
Treasury bond futures fell on Thursday. Unilaterally, based on closing prices, the 30-year bond futures contract fell 0.34%, the 10-year contract fell 0.12%, the 5-year contract fell 0.07%, and the 2-year contract fell 0.02%. The yield on the active 30-year bond rose 0.75 basis points to 2.1925%, the yield on the active 10-year bond rose 0.55 basis points to 1.833%, and the yield on the active 2-year bond fell 0.5 basis points to 1.495%. Inter-product spreads for futures: 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL changed by 0.061 yuan, -0.015 yuan, and 0.015 yuan, respectively. Unilateral strategies: Bond futures prices fell, with short-term bonds showing slight strength. US-China trade talks will resume in Malaysia on the 24th, and rising market risk appetite is dampening bullish sentiment in bond futures. Looking ahead, we believe bond market pricing will return to fundamentals. With the quasi-deflationary landscape still intact, closely monitoring opportunities for long futures on dips is a key strategy for the near future. Cross-product strategies: TL's resilience is evident, and we recommend a short (TF) and long (TL) arbitrage strategy. Currently, arbitrage strategies outperform single-sided strategies. Hedging strategies: T-bond net basis has rebounded from low levels, but overall levels are not high. We recommend maintaining a long T-bond basis portfolio.
Industrial silicon futures rebounded yesterday, driven by market concerns about contract disputes affecting production at major manufacturers. Other upstream and downstream sectors saw limited movement. From a fundamental perspective, industrial silicon production is at a year-to-date high, with the trend of increasing production in northern China and decreasing production in southern China continuing. Xinjiang, in particular, saw an unexpectedly rapid ramp-up, significantly increasing supply. Downstream market demand remains stable in the short term, but potential polysilicon production cuts and silicone production reductions for maintenance also dampen optimistic demand expectations. Overall, industrial silicon fundamentals remain weak, and pressure remains. A light short position is recommended, with the SI2601 contract trading range at 8,600-9,200 yuan/ton.
Copper: Shanghai copper futures rose overnight to 86,730 yuan, while London copper also rose to around $10,815. Macroeconomic conditions are bullish. Domestically, the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China set the tone for the 15th Five-Year Plan, and policy expectations boosted market sentiment. Overseas, Chinese senior officials will travel to Malaysia from the 24th to the 27th for trade consultations with the US, signaling a return to negotiations between China and the US, and improving risk aversion. Fundamentals are neutral to bullish. Yesterday, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 505 tons to 36,000 tons, while LME copper inventories increased by 75 tons to 137,000 tons. Watch for an inventory inflection point. In the spot market, firm copper prices are cooling consumption, and coupled with routine inspections at upstream refineries such as Jinlong Copper, spot trading activity continues to cool. Overall, trade war concerns are expected to ease, domestic policy expectations are rising, and the global inventory inflection point is entering a window of opportunity. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen, driven by a combination of macro and industrial positives. Today's Shanghai copper main operating range is 86,200-87,200 yuan/ton. Strategically, we maintain the medium- and long-term buy-low-buy strategy.
Ferroalloys: Following the conclusion of a major meeting, policy measures remained within expectations, maintaining stable commodity market sentiment. Downstream procurement is primarily based on demand, with steel mills experiencing slight but limited production cuts. Supply remains high, with significant increases in silicomanganese mill inventories and relatively normal ferrosilicon levels. Cost support remains strong overall, but with rising futures prices, hedging margins are improving. If prices continue to rise, selling pressure may gradually emerge. Overall, while alloys are undervalued, upward momentum is lacking. Viewpoint: A wait-and-see approach is recommended for the 01 futures contract, while holding the out-of-the-money put option on the 12 contract.
Rebar: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China concluded, with limited focus on traditional growth drivers. The next window for economic policy negotiation will be the Central Economic Work Conference in December. Industry-wide, rebar production increased by 59,100 tons to 2.0707 million tons this week, while social inventories decreased by 189,300 tons to 4.3748 million tons. Factory inventories decreased by 1,000 tons to 1.8463 million tons, reflecting a 62,600-ton increase in apparent demand compared to last week. Demand for rebar is rebounding seasonally, while supply is also increasing. Despite the dual supply and demand situation, fundamentals are improving only slightly, and inventory reduction pressure persists. Steel prices remain vulnerable to pressure, but cost support is a factor, and prices are expected to remain volatile at low levels.
Hot-rolled coil (HCR): This week's production increased by 6,200 tons, while inventories decreased by 42,700 tons. Apparent demand rebounded by 111,800 tons to 3,267,300 tons. Short-term supply and demand pressures remain high, with peak season inventory reduction falling short of expectations. Demand performance remains acceptable, but concerns remain. A substantial improvement in basic fabric prices is unlikely, and HRC prices remain under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. We expect continued volatility and a bottoming-out trend. Strategically, rebar 2601 is recommended for trading in the 3000-3200 range, while HRC 2601 is recommended for trading in the 3200-3400 range.
Authorized by CITIC Construction Investment Futures Co., Ltd. to be forwarded by "a professional market analysis information website focusing on domestic futures derivatives trading": [ http:// ]
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
