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2025-10-24 19:23:31
The Copper Mine Supply Crisis Continues to Fester, and the Global Inventory Landscape Holds Hidden Signs. ⑴ The International Copper Study Group projects that global refined copper production will decline by 150,000 tons in 2026, a significant reversal from its April forecast of a 209,000-ton oversupply. ⑵ The forecast for mine supply growth in 2025 has been lowered from 2.3% to 1.4%, with several institutions predicting actual growth may be close to zero. ⑶ Accidents at major mines such as Kakula, El Teniente, and Grasberg will have a cumulative impact that will be fully felt next year. ⑷ A shortage of concentrate will lead to a halt in primary smelter production next year, and a projected 6% increase in secondary copper production will still be insufficient to offset the shortfall. ⑸ Total exchange inventories have increased by 120,000 tons since the beginning of the year, with CME inventories exceeding the combined total of the London and Shanghai Futures Exchanges for the first time. ⑹ Despite ample short-term supply, the LME three-month copper price remains firmly above $11,000, indicating that the market is pricing in a future supply gap.
