The Fed's interest rate cut expectations failed to boost safe-haven buying, and the gold price fell below the $4,000 mark, which may open up room for adjustment.
2025-10-28 14:04:18
Gold prices remained under pressure in Asian trading on Tuesday, falling from $4,000 to a three-week low. While expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve weighed on the dollar, rising risk appetite driven by improved global trade relations weakened gold's safe-haven appeal.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut remain a key market focus. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors have almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in October and believe another rate cut will occur in December.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September released last week rose by 3% year-on-year, and the core CPI also remained at 3%, indicating that although inflation has slowed down, it is still above the target range, providing policy space for "moderate interest rate cuts."
A precious metals strategist in New York said: "Gold's short-term trend is constrained by the improvement in risk appetite, but the market's expectation of interest rate cuts still provides bottom support for gold prices. The real breakthrough direction needs to wait for the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting."
In geopolitical terms, US President Trump, in response to Russia's announcement of the successful test of a new nuclear-powered cruise missile, said the US had deployed nuclear submarines off the Russian coast. This statement briefly boosted geopolitical risk sentiment and provided limited support for gold prices.
Overall, market sentiment remains optimistic and investors tend to take profits above $4,000.
Technically, gold prices have fallen below the psychologically important $4,000 level in the short term, with bearish momentum gradually increasing. Daily indicators show the RSI falling below 50, while the MACD is showing signs of a death cross, suggesting a continuation of the short-term bearish trend.
If gold prices continue to come under pressure and fall below the $3,950 support level, it may trigger further selling pressure, targeting $3,900 (corresponding to the 50% retracement level of the July-October rally).
On the contrary, if the gold price rebounds and breaks through the resistance of $4020, it will face strong pressure from the $4050-4060 area. If the price stabilizes above this level, a short-term technical correction may occur, with the target of $4110 (23.6% retracement level) and the $4155-4160 supply zone, but the overall trend is still weak and volatile.
A Tokyo precious metals trader pointed out: "As long as the gold price fails to effectively recover the $4,050 mark, the short-term structure will still tend to fluctuate downward, and the market may usher in a directional breakthrough after the Fed meeting."
Editor's opinion:
The core contradiction facing gold today lies in the tug-of-war between expectations of policy easing supporting gold prices and risk appetite weakening safe-haven demand. The Fed's policy signals will determine whether gold can hold steady at $4,000.
If the pace of rate cuts accelerates, gold prices could regain momentum. Conversely, if the Fed signals a pause in easing, gold prices could retest the $3,800 support level. Focus on a breakout above the $3,900 support level and the $4,050 resistance level. The medium-term trend remains bearish with a volatile bias.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut remain a key market focus. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors have almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in October and believe another rate cut will occur in December.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September released last week rose by 3% year-on-year, and the core CPI also remained at 3%, indicating that although inflation has slowed down, it is still above the target range, providing policy space for "moderate interest rate cuts."
A precious metals strategist in New York said: "Gold's short-term trend is constrained by the improvement in risk appetite, but the market's expectation of interest rate cuts still provides bottom support for gold prices. The real breakthrough direction needs to wait for the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting."
In geopolitical terms, US President Trump, in response to Russia's announcement of the successful test of a new nuclear-powered cruise missile, said the US had deployed nuclear submarines off the Russian coast. This statement briefly boosted geopolitical risk sentiment and provided limited support for gold prices.
Overall, market sentiment remains optimistic and investors tend to take profits above $4,000.
Technically, gold prices have fallen below the psychologically important $4,000 level in the short term, with bearish momentum gradually increasing. Daily indicators show the RSI falling below 50, while the MACD is showing signs of a death cross, suggesting a continuation of the short-term bearish trend.
If gold prices continue to come under pressure and fall below the $3,950 support level, it may trigger further selling pressure, targeting $3,900 (corresponding to the 50% retracement level of the July-October rally).
On the contrary, if the gold price rebounds and breaks through the resistance of $4020, it will face strong pressure from the $4050-4060 area. If the price stabilizes above this level, a short-term technical correction may occur, with the target of $4110 (23.6% retracement level) and the $4155-4160 supply zone, but the overall trend is still weak and volatile.
A Tokyo precious metals trader pointed out: "As long as the gold price fails to effectively recover the $4,050 mark, the short-term structure will still tend to fluctuate downward, and the market may usher in a directional breakthrough after the Fed meeting."
Editor's opinion:
The core contradiction facing gold today lies in the tug-of-war between expectations of policy easing supporting gold prices and risk appetite weakening safe-haven demand. The Fed's policy signals will determine whether gold can hold steady at $4,000.
If the pace of rate cuts accelerates, gold prices could regain momentum. Conversely, if the Fed signals a pause in easing, gold prices could retest the $3,800 support level. Focus on a breakout above the $3,900 support level and the $4,050 resistance level. The medium-term trend remains bearish with a volatile bias.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
