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[Caixin Futures: Agricultural Products Market Supply and Demand Diverge] ⑴ Palm oil supply remains accommodative. Malaysia is expected to continue accumulating inventories in October, with high production forecasts. This has led to continued selling pressure in producing areas, resulting in a continued backlog of 600,000 tons in domestic palm oil inventories. Short-term supply drivers are lacking. ⑵ In terms of market conditions, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell by 140 yuan to 8,860 yuan/ton, with the futures market showing a premium. Domestic spot basis weakened, and inventories rose slightly. ⑶ Further declines are expected in the 2601 futures contract. A bearish stance is maintained. Support is expected to be in the 8,800-9,050 yuan/ton range. Be cautious about shorting below 9,000 yuan. Short positions around 9,050 yuan/ton should be within the take-profit zone. ⑷ US soybean prices have recently strengthened, driven by relatively firm domestic spot prices and robust domestic crushing demand. Import costs are supporting a rebound in domestic meal prices. ⑹ Currently, domestic soybean supply is not a major issue in the fourth quarter, but a potential shortage may occur in the first quarter of next year, supporting a premium for the deferred month. However, short-term momentum is insufficient, so we recommend a range-bound, weak market. ⑺ Seasonal selling pressure on corn persists, and downstream feed mills and deep processing companies remain reluctant to purchase, maintaining a focus on on-demand purchases. Supply pressure is high, while demand is weak. ⑻ Overall, a loose supply structure will persist in the short term, with prices expected to remain weak. We recommend a short-term sell-off. ⑼ In the long term, increasing supply is the primary concern, particularly with a significant increase in theoretical slaughter in October, which may further exacerbate the loose supply structure. ⑽ However, increased market speculation, the entry of second-stage breeding stock into the piggery market, and increased inventory intake by slaughterhouses are supporting rising pork prices. This support is expected to be temporary, so we recommend against chasing the price increase and instead maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term. ⑾ The current narrowing price gap between large and small eggs, coupled with a decline in the proportion of small-sized eggs purchased by traders, indicates a low number of newly laid hens and a continued high level of enthusiasm among farmers to cull older chickens. ⑿ Pay attention to the progress and speed of the turning point in egg production. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see.