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2025-10-29 21:06:14
[US Job Market Sees Shocking Layoffs! Key Basis for Fed Rate Cut] ⑴ The US labor market has shifted from a "no hiring, no layoffs" model to a "no hiring, many layoffs" model, providing a basis for the Fed to cut interest rates. ⑵ Amazon announced 14,000 layoffs on Tuesday, and UPS has cut 48,000 jobs in the past year, with the technology and retail industries being the hardest hit. ⑶ Intel laid off 25,000, Microsoft laid off 15,000, and Accenture laid off 11,000, with layoffs sweeping across multiple industries. ⑷ From January to September, US employers announced a total of 947,000 layoffs, with the government, technology, and retail industries being the most severely affected. ⑸ Due to the lack of official employment data caused by the government shutdown, corporate layoff announcements have become a key indicator for judging market conditions. ⑹ The Chicago Fed model shows that the proportion of "layoffs and other departures" continues to rise, while the proportion of "unemployed people finding new jobs" has fallen to a four-year low. ⑺ ADP weekly data shows that the average increase in jobs over the four weeks ending October 11 was only 14,250, with job growth almost stagnant. (8) Although inflation is still 1 percentage point above the target, the downside risk to employment has outweighed the upside risk to inflation, becoming the dominant factor in policy.
