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October 30th Financial Breakfast: Powell dampened expectations of a December rate cut, gold prices narrowed gains, and higher-than-expected inventories supported oil prices.

2025-10-30 07:32:11

On Thursday (October 30, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $3,950 per ounce. Gold prices narrowed their gains significantly on Wednesday, despite the Federal Reserve announcing a 25 basis point rate cut as expected by the market. However, the initial optimism surrounding gold was quickly dampened by Chairman Powell's cautious remarks. US crude oil was trading around $60.18 per barrel. Oil prices rose on Wednesday after data showed a larger-than-expected drop in US crude oil and fuel inventories last week, and US President Trump's optimism about trade talks helped ease economic tensions.

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Key Focus Today



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stock market


U.S. stock markets diverged on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average unexpectedly closing lower after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the S&P 500 closing nearly flat, and the Nasdaq hitting a new high driven by the artificial intelligence boom.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16% to 47,632.00; the S&P 500 fell 0.30 points to 6,890.59; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.55% to 23,958.47.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the interest rate range to 3.75%-4.00%, which should have boosted market sentiment. However, Powell's subsequent remarks dampened market optimism—he clearly stated that another rate cut in December was "far from a certainty." This hawkish comment immediately triggered a market repricing, with traders' bets on a December rate cut plummeting from 85% to 62%.

In this interplay between policy and market forces, Nvidia has emerged as the brightest star. The AI chip manufacturer's stock closed up 3%, its market capitalization historically surpassing the $5 trillion mark, with a year-to-date gain exceeding 50%. Its strong performance not only propelled the Nasdaq index against the trend but also highlighted that artificial intelligence continues to lead market trends.

Corporate earnings reports presented a stark contrast. Industrial giant Caterpillar's stock price surged 11.6% due to better-than-expected profits, while the after-hours results from tech giants showed a clear divergence: Alphabet rose 5% due to strong AI demand, while Microsoft fell 1% due to concerns about record AI infrastructure spending. The worst performer was Meta, whose stock price plummeted more than 8% in after-hours trading due to a $16 billion one-time charge and a forecast of a surge in capital expenditures next year.

While the Federal Reserve's cautious stance has caused short-term market volatility, the fundamentals remain solid. Data shows that approximately 84.2% of companies reported earnings exceeding expectations this earnings season, above historical averages. As market experts have noted, while interest rate cuts are important, corporate earnings remain the ultimate driver of long-term stock market performance. The market is currently in a delicate rebalancing process between policy expectations and corporate fundamentals.

Gold Market


Gold prices narrowed their gains sharply on Wednesday. Despite the Federal Reserve announcing a 25-basis-point rate cut, as expected, bringing rates down to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, initial optimism surrounding gold was quickly dampened by Chairman Powell's cautious comments.

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Spot gold closed at $3,964.39 per ounce, up only 0.3% on the day, well below its earlier 2% surge. December gold futures in the US closed 0.4% higher at $4,000.7 per ounce. The turning point came when Powell stated at the press conference that "further rate cuts at the December meeting are by no means a certainty," and emphasized that policy was not on the expected track, revealing significant disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the future path.

The market reacted swiftly. Analyst Peter Grant noted that gold responded logically to Powell's attempt to reverse expectations of a December rate cut. As bets on a year-end rate cut were significantly reduced in the federal funds rate futures market, the dollar gained support, putting pressure on dollar-denominated gold. This pullback has brought gold down more than 3% so far this week, partly due to signs of easing global trade tensions, despite gold prices still rising 51% year-to-date and recently hitting a record high.

In other precious metals markets, spot silver performed strongly, rising 1.7%; platinum and palladium also recorded gains of 0.6% and 1.9%, respectively.

oil market


Oil prices rose on Wednesday after data showed a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude and fuel inventories last week, and President Trump’s optimism about trade talks helped ease economic tensions.

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Brent crude futures rose 0.8% to settle at $64.92 a barrel; U.S. crude futures rose 0.6% to settle at $60.48.

Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories all fell more than analysts expected last week. The data showed that crude oil inventories decreased by nearly 7 million barrels, far exceeding the predicted drop of 211,000 barrels.

"Where is the oversupply? The less oversupply appears, the more we doubt its existence," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, following the report's release.

Optimism surrounding trade negotiations and the agreement reached with South Korea have helped alleviate concerns about a decline in economic activity caused by Trump's tariffs and trade war, which in recent months have fueled worries about oil demand and dragged down commodity prices.

However, the global economic outlook remains troubled by other issues. The divided Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday, but Chairman Powell expressed caution about the future in his post-meeting comments.

Four sources familiar with the talks said that OPEC+, the world’s largest oil-producing group, is inclined to increase production slightly in December, with two of the sources saying the increase would be 137,000 barrels per day.

Foreign exchange market


The dollar rose across the board on Wednesday, primarily thanks to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's successful reversal of strong market expectations for another rate cut in December. Although the Fed announced a rate cut as anticipated, significant internal divisions emerged in the decision: Governor Milan advocated for a more substantial reduction in borrowing costs, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid insisted that rates should not be cut given persistent inflation. This hawkish dissent highlighted the policy divisions within the Fed, providing a basis for Powell's cautious signals.

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Powell explicitly stated that Federal Reserve officials were struggling to reach a consensus on the future path, and the market should not assume that another rate cut by the end of the year is inevitable. This statement had an immediate effect, with market expectations for a December rate cut plummeting from approximately 85% earlier in the day to 62%. Simultaneously, the Federal Reserve announced it would resume limited purchases of Treasury bonds to alleviate tightening liquidity pressures in the money market.

Against this backdrop, the US dollar index rose significantly by 0.63% to 99.28. Major currencies generally weakened against the dollar: the euro fell 0.56% to $1.1585; the yen fell 0.56% against the dollar to 152.86 yen, despite having strengthened earlier after US Treasury Secretary Bessenter urged the Japanese government to give the central bank room to raise interest rates.

The pound was one of the weakest currencies of the day, falling 0.9% against the dollar to $1.3151, a five-and-a-half-month low. Market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut next week continued to rise, as recent data showed signs of easing in the UK labor market and inflation unexpectedly holding steady, creating conditions for the central bank to ease policy. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast accordingly, expecting the Bank of England to cut rates next month.

The Canadian dollar traded relatively steadily throughout the day, after hitting a one-month high. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates as expected, but also hinted that this could be the end of the current rate-cutting cycle unless the economic outlook changes.

International News


Summary of Powell's October press conference

1. Policy Rate Outlook: Another Fed rate cut in December is not a certainty. Opinions were very divided today. Some FOMC members believe it's time to pause. 2. Balance Sheet: No decisions were made today regarding the composition of the balance sheet. Balance sheet composition is a long-term process and will be gradual. The hope is to move towards a shorter-duration balance sheet. 3. Labor Market: The labor market continues to cool due to restrictive policy. No exacerbation of the weakness in the labor market has been observed; job vacancies do indicate the market has remained stable over the past four weeks. The dramatic decline in labor supply has impacted the labor market. The Fed closely monitors layoff decisions. 4. Inflation: September CPI was more moderate than expected. Services inflation, excluding the housing market, has been trending unilaterally. Core PCE, excluding tariffs, is likely at 2.3% or 2.4%. To date, non-tariff inflation has not strayed far from the 2% inflation target. The base case is that the US will experience some additional tariff inflation. 5. Government shutdown: Data disclosed by the private sector cannot replace statistical results from government departments (such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics). It is conceivable that a government shutdown would affect the December FOMC monetary policy meeting.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.8%.

According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.8%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.2%.

Key points from the Federal Reserve's interest rate statement: A 25 basis point rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening; two dissenting voices.

The key points of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday are as follows: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%. The Fed announced that it will stop shrinking its balance sheet on December 1, at which time maturing agency debt will be reinvested in Treasury bills. Fed Governor Stephen Milan opposed the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid advocated keeping the interest rate unchanged. The statement continued the previous description of the labor market, stating that "job growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has risen, but remained low as of August." The statement added that "recent indicators are consistent with these changes," and that "downside risks to employment have increased in recent months." The Fed stated that current indicators suggest economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, and reiterated that inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains relatively high.

The payroll of U.S. House of Representatives staff will be suspended due to the government shutdown.

On October 29, local time, staff members of the U.S. House of Representatives were notified that they would not be able to receive their salaries, which were due on October 31. The notice stated, "Due to the funding interruption, the Office of the Administrator is not authorized to pay salaries until Congress passes a temporary funding resolution or the 2026 fiscal year appropriations bill and signs it into force." Unlike Senate staff who receive salaries twice a month, House staff are paid monthly and are therefore more directly affected.

US media: The government shutdown may see a turning point early next week.

According to Politico, after nearly a month of government shutdown, the situation appears to be finally beginning to change. The looming critical deadlines, coupled with external pressure, are adding new urgency to the bipartisan dialogue that has been stalled for weeks. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and his Senate allies, House Speaker Mike Johnson and other House Republican leaders seem increasingly confident that a growing number of moderate Democrats are prepared to compromise on a temporary funding bill to mitigate the shutdown's impact, possibly as early as next week. Republican leaders are discussing a new temporary funding bill, with dozens of options already in place, including providing temporary funding to the government until around January 21 or later into March.

The EU-Ukraine trade upgrade agreement officially came into effect.

On October 29, local time, the European Commission issued a statement announcing that the upgraded EU-Ukraine Deep Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) officially came into effect on the same day. The upgraded agreement restricts EU imports of sensitive agricultural products, incorporates strong new safeguard provisions, and stipulates harmonization of production standards between Ukraine and the EU. On October 13, the European Council announced that it had passed a resolution to reduce or eliminate tariffs on Ukrainian dairy products, fresh fruits and vegetables, meat, and other agricultural products within the EU-Ukraine Joint Commission. This resolution stems from the preliminary agreement reached on June 30, 2025, regarding the review of the EU-Ukraine Deep Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, aiming to build a long-term mutually beneficial trade framework. (CCTV News)

The amount of gold hoarded by Russian citizens is comparable to that of Spain's national reserves.

A study shows that gold has become one of the most popular savings methods in Russia over the past four years, with the total amount of gold purchased by Russian consumers poised to reach the level of national reserves in Spain or Austria. Quantitative research startup Al Banyan Tree Research predicts that retail purchases of gold bars, coins, and jewelry in Russia will reach 62.2 tons (nearly 2 million troy ounces) this year.

South Korea and the United States reached a trade agreement, under which South Korea will invest $350 billion in the United States.

According to foreign media reports, after months of negotiations, the United States and South Korea have finally reached a trade agreement. South Korea will invest $150 billion in the United States for shipbuilding, and $200 billion of its $350 billion investment in the US will be in installments of cash. The investment cap is $20 billion per year. Furthermore, a South Korean presidential advisor stated that the United States will maintain its overall 15% tariff on South Korean goods, while tariffs on automobiles will be reduced to 15%, and South Korea will receive most-favored-nation treatment regarding pharmaceutical tariffs.

Domestic News


China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC): Exploring pilot programs for financial technology innovation combining AI and the capital market.


Li Chao, Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), stated at the Capital Market Fintech Forum of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting on October 29th that the CSRC will explore pilot projects for fintech innovation in the area of "artificial intelligence + capital market," while strengthening risk control and tolerance for failure. Under the premise of complying with national and industry requirements and ensuring controllable risks, the CSRC will continue to deepen the research and application of artificial intelligence in key business scenarios. "A new round of technological revolution is accelerating, and artificial intelligence, as a strategic emerging technology, is profoundly changing the ecosystem and operating model of the capital market," Li Chao said. He emphasized the need to regulate the application of artificial intelligence technology, mitigate potential risks, strengthen data security and business risk prevention, conduct business in compliance with regulations, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.

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