World Bank: Gold and silver will continue to reach new highs in 2026, but the rally will end in 2027.
2025-10-31 10:57:26
The gold market is expected to continue its ascent to record highs, but investors should exercise caution. World Bank analysts' latest forecast predicts gold prices will rise by only 5% in 2026, far below this year's 50% increase.
According to the latest commodity outlook, the World Bank projects that gold prices will average $3,575 per ounce in 2026, while silver will average $41, a 7.9% increase from current average prices.
However, the gold and silver rally may end in 2027. The World Bank predicts that the average gold price that year will be $3,375, a drop of more than 5% compared to 2026; and the average silver price will be $37, a decrease of nearly 10%.
Analysts stated, "The recent rally has been primarily driven by investment demand, supported by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic concerns, policy uncertainty, Federal Reserve easing, and a weaker dollar. Gold prices are projected to rise 42% year-on-year by 2025. The last major surge occurred in 1979-80, when soaring inflation, oil price shocks, a weak dollar, and geopolitical turmoil nearly doubled gold prices. While similar geopolitical and dollar factors exist this time, inflation and energy disturbances are more moderate, and the unprecedented pace of central bank gold purchases is a key differentiator."
Despite potential selling pressure in 2027, the World Bank still expects the market to establish a higher baseline. "Prices in 2026 are projected to be more than 180% higher than the 2019-2019 average."
The World Bank is more optimistic about silver next year, driven by both investment and industrial demand. "Silver demand is expected to grow steadily, highlighting its dual role as a safe-haven asset and a key input in rapidly growing sectors such as renewable energy and semiconductors."
Despite a cautious outlook, analysts point to upside risks. "While recent geopolitical and policy uncertainties have eased, trade frictions, tariff increases, or escalating conflicts could trigger additional safe-haven flows, driving gold and silver prices higher than expected. Unexpected financial volatility could also boost precious metal prices."
Conversely, easing geopolitical tensions and hawkish monetary policies may weaken the safe-haven and investment demand for gold and silver.
At 10:56 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4011.09 per ounce.
According to the latest commodity outlook, the World Bank projects that gold prices will average $3,575 per ounce in 2026, while silver will average $41, a 7.9% increase from current average prices.
However, the gold and silver rally may end in 2027. The World Bank predicts that the average gold price that year will be $3,375, a drop of more than 5% compared to 2026; and the average silver price will be $37, a decrease of nearly 10%.
Analysts stated, "The recent rally has been primarily driven by investment demand, supported by geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic concerns, policy uncertainty, Federal Reserve easing, and a weaker dollar. Gold prices are projected to rise 42% year-on-year by 2025. The last major surge occurred in 1979-80, when soaring inflation, oil price shocks, a weak dollar, and geopolitical turmoil nearly doubled gold prices. While similar geopolitical and dollar factors exist this time, inflation and energy disturbances are more moderate, and the unprecedented pace of central bank gold purchases is a key differentiator."
Despite potential selling pressure in 2027, the World Bank still expects the market to establish a higher baseline. "Prices in 2026 are projected to be more than 180% higher than the 2019-2019 average."
The World Bank is more optimistic about silver next year, driven by both investment and industrial demand. "Silver demand is expected to grow steadily, highlighting its dual role as a safe-haven asset and a key input in rapidly growing sectors such as renewable energy and semiconductors."
Despite a cautious outlook, analysts point to upside risks. "While recent geopolitical and policy uncertainties have eased, trade frictions, tariff increases, or escalating conflicts could trigger additional safe-haven flows, driving gold and silver prices higher than expected. Unexpected financial volatility could also boost precious metal prices."
Conversely, easing geopolitical tensions and hawkish monetary policies may weaken the safe-haven and investment demand for gold and silver.
At 10:56 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4011.09 per ounce.
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