The euro/dollar pair continued to decline in October, and November may present similar challenges for speculators who are still betting on the pair's upward momentum.



The euro/dollar pair traded highly volatilely in October, and one thing is clear: the pair failed to maintain a significant upward trend. Currently, the euro/dollar exchange rate is near 1.16280, with no clear catalyst for a sudden rebound. Although it rose in mid-October, the exchange rate quickly fell back to lower levels.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points again last night, but this move had already been priced into the euro/dollar exchange rate. The market also reacted mildly to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, as Fed Chairman Powell did not hint at another rate cut in December.

US government shutdown and uncertainty

Global financial markets, particularly stock markets, are experiencing strong upward momentum, but the foreign exchange market, including the euro/dollar exchange rate, remains highly volatile. Financial institutions remain cautious about the US dollar. Since reaching a high of around 1.17320 on October 17th, the euro/dollar exchange rate has been under continuous pressure.

Despite the apparent oversold condition of the euro/dollar, financial institutions are clearly unwilling to bet on its rise in the medium term. The lack of economic data due to the US government shutdown has further exacerbated market concerns about the future interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve. Day traders who believe the euro/dollar is bound to strengthen should remain cautious; the volatility in October has clearly shown a gradual downward trend for this currency pair.

Market Speculative Reaction to EUR/USD Lows

As October draws to a close, the euro/dollar pair faces strong resistance and is under pressure. In mid-October, President Trump's threat of harsh tariffs against China triggered significant volatility in financial markets, with the euro/dollar pair briefly touching a low of around 1.15450. Although it subsequently rebounded from that low, the current price action is not optimistic for the euro.

Volatility in the EUR/USD exchange rate is common in the forex market, and traders need to recognize the complexity of the current overall market environment. Traders must remember that subjective expectations are not equivalent to market reality.

Betting on a rise in EUR/USD requires caution, as the pair's volatile pattern is likely to continue in the short term.

Financial institutions that had expected the Federal Reserve to make it clear that a rate cut in December was inevitable may be disappointed today, which undoubtedly led to some selling pressure on the euro/dollar in early trading.

The question of where the effective support level for EUR/USD lies and when an upward trend will form remains highly uncertain.

EUR/USD Outlook for November 2025: Speculative Price Range for EUR/USD: 1.15700-1.18100


(EUR/USD 1-hour chart source: FX678)

The US government shutdown appears destined to last longer, having already exceeded four weeks and drawing widespread market attention. However, neither party has yet felt sufficient pressure to end this shutdown, which stems from political maneuvering and fiscal concerns. Nevertheless, the euro/dollar exchange rate is more influenced by cautious sentiment stemming from uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy; an end to the shutdown could potentially strengthen the euro/dollar.

In the coming weeks, many financial institutions will maintain a conservative stance to assess market trends next month. If uncertainty surrounding US economic data persists, the euro/dollar pair may remain at the lower end of its current price range—the pair briefly broke above 1.18800 on September 17th. Intraday traders should exercise caution with the euro/dollar in November, while technical traders who only speculate around highs and lows may still have an advantage.