Download App

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in the Metals Market] ⑴ The new gold value-added tax policy has different impacts on the gold financial market and the spot trading market. On the one hand, it has driven some off-exchange transactions to the exchange, and on the other hand, the sales costs of downstream investment gold bars and gold jewelry have increased. ⑵ Gold prices dipped slightly in early trading today, hitting a low of 911 yuan, briefly breaking through last week's first support level of 915 yuan before quickly rebounding. The effectiveness of this price level as the lower edge of an important bullish trading range has been initially verified. ⑶ The short-term gold price trading range remains focused on 915-926 yuan. In terms of trading, it is crucial to pay close attention to changes in trading volume: if there is an increase in open interest and a breakout above 926 yuan, the upside target could be the 935 yuan gap; if there is a rebound with reduced open interest, long positions should be closed for profit in a timely manner. ⑷ Several Federal Reserve officials spoke out intensively after this week's interest rate meeting. Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Hammarck explicitly stated their opposition to this week's interest rate cut decision, while Fed Governor Waller called for continued interest rate cuts. (5) Despite the hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, given the continued disruptions to copper mines both domestically and internationally, the persistently negative copper concentrate import index, tight supply expectations, and escalating geopolitical tensions, Shanghai copper prices will likely remain supported in the future. The overall strategy remains to buy on dips. (6) LME inventories remain low, and while domestic social inventories have decreased slightly but remain at historically high levels, export windows are open, and demand is relatively stable. Considering the continued oversupply in the domestic market, the upside potential for Shanghai zinc prices is limited. (7) The overall supply and demand for alumina remains relatively loose, with both operating capacity and inventory at high levels in the short term. Short-term fundamental drivers remain weak, but the market shows some signs of bottoming out. Future attention should be paid to whether production companies will reduce production due to losses. (8) Today, aluminum-related commodities saw a significant increase in open interest and upward movement, possibly based on positive long-term demand expectations and the recovery of the copper-aluminum price ratio, with bullish funds entering the market in large numbers. (9) Production cuts by Century Aluminum and next year's production cuts by Mozambique aluminum plants are expected to tighten overseas supply. Domestic supply is stable, but inventory reduction is slow due to high aluminum prices and weak downstream demand. (10) Overall, given the mixed macroeconomic environment and fundamental factors, the outlook for Shanghai aluminum and foundry aluminum remains unchanged, with a strategy of buying on dips. (11) Going forward, attention should be paid to the risk of mining disruptions before the Guinea elections on December 28th, and the negative feedback effect of high aluminum prices on demand.