Precious Metals: Despite positive US economic data, including a significantly higher-than-expected ADP employment report and an eight-month high in the October ISM Services PMI, precious metals did not experience downward pressure. Instead, they showed a slight upward trend, likely due to the ongoing US government shutdown and uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies. The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large-scale tariffs, with several justices questioning the president's authority. The continuity of Trump's tariff policies remains unclear. Overall, the short-term market is mixed, with wide fluctuations in the precious metals market. However, long-term supporting factors such as "de-dollarization" remain, and precious metals are still in a long-term bull market. In terms of trading strategy, short-term traders should be aware of the risk of pullbacks, while long-term long positions can be maintained. The reference range for Shanghai Gold 2512 is 900-940 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver 2512 is 11100-11600 yuan/kilogram.


Stock Index Futures: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.03%, the STAR Market 50 Index rose 0.23%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.19%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.17%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.26%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.39%. The total turnover of the two markets was 1,872.341 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 43.417 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among the Shenwan Level 1 industries, the best performing industries were: Power Equipment (3.04%), Coal (1.39%), and Retail (1.22%). The worst performing industries were: Computer (-0.97%), Non-bank Financials (-0.49%), and Communications (-0.43%). Regarding basis, the IH basis strengthened slightly, while the IF, IC, and IM basis all weakened slightly. The annualized basis rates for the IH and IF quarterly contracts were -0.40% and -3.50% respectively, while the annualized basis rates for the IC and IM quarterly contracts were -11.10% and -13.80% respectively. For hedging, short positions could consider quarterly contracts. Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened sharply lower and then fluctuated upwards. Trading volume in both markets declined again compared to the previous trading day, remaining below the 2 trillion yuan mark. Yesterday, possibly influenced by the significant declines in US stock indices and Asian external indices, market panic was strong at the beginning of the session, with both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opening sharply lower. However, the panic subsided relatively quickly, and both markets closed slightly higher. In terms of first-tier industry performance, power equipment, coal, and retail sectors led the gains yesterday, while computer and communication technology-related sectors led the declines, possibly influenced by the sharp decline in the AI computing power sector in the US stock market. The market as a whole is showing a short-term sector rotation trend, and the continued decline and low level of turnover in both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges may indicate that the recent sector rotation adjustment is nearing its end. Regarding indices, yesterday's decline in the financial sector may have put significant pressure on the SSE 50. As the market style rotation gradually completes, the performance differences between indices are expected to narrow. The profit recovery of small and mid-cap companies may be slightly stronger than that of large-cap companies; it is recommended to maintain long positions in IF and IM futures.

Treasury Bond Futures: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures fluctuated. In terms of directional trading, based on closing prices, the 30-year main contract fell 0.08%, the 10-year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5-year main contract remained unchanged, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.01%. The yield on the most actively traded 30-year treasury bond rose 0.65 basis points to 2.1425%, the yield on the most actively traded 10-year bond rose 0.25 basis points to 1.7925%, and the yield on the most actively traded 2-year bond rose 0.25 basis points to 1.3525%. Regarding cross-product spreads, the spreads for 4TS-T, 2TF-T, and 3T-TL changed by -0.025 yuan, 0.005 yuan, and 0.045 yuan, respectively. Directional Strategy: With treasury bond futures fluctuating, TL (Treasury Bond Futures) still shows a clear negative correlation with the equity market, while TS (Treasury Bond Futures) is affected by liquidity expectations. The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading is in line with expectations, and the probability of stable liquidity in the market is relatively high. Looking ahead, we believe that bond pricing is gradually returning to fundamentals, and in a loose liquidity environment, we recommend holding long positions in TS bonds. Cross-product strategy: We recommend holding a long-short (TS) and long-term (T) arbitrage strategy; with expectations of loose liquidity, short-term bonds may show greater resilience. Hedging strategy: The T net basis is fluctuating at low levels, and the overall level is not high; we recommend continuing to hold a long T basis portfolio.

Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon futures rebounded slightly yesterday, with manufacturers continuing to hold back sales, providing support for the spot market. Easing macroeconomic pressures contributed to the firm performance of the futures market. From a fundamental perspective, industrial silicon operating rates have declined slightly from their high levels. The pace of increase in operating rates in the north is gradually slowing, while the number of furnace shutdowns in the south is rapidly increasing as the dry season approaches. Downstream market demand is stable in the short term, but subsequent reductions in polysilicon production and maintenance shutdowns in organosilicon production also make demand expectations less optimistic. Overall, industrial silicon supply is experiencing seasonal production cuts, demand expectations are weakening slightly, and the overall supply and demand situation is stable. The market will still need to pay attention to changes in domestic policies. For trading, a wait-and-see approach is recommended. The reference range for the SI2601 contract is 8700-9300 yuan/ton.

Ferroalloys: The spot market remains weak, but futures rebounded somewhat due to rising coal prices. Thermal coal prices continued to rise, creating strong cost expectations for futures, but demand has not yet picked up. Steel mill production intensity is slowly declining, profitability is deteriorating, and some steel mills are planning maintenance shutdowns, indicating weakening demand. There is still time before winter stockpiling, and downstream restocking has not yet begun. Factory production is normal, and output remains high. Manganese silicon plants are experiencing significantly increased inventory pressure, while ferrosilicon inventory is relatively normal. Ferrosilicon fundamentals continue to be stronger than ferrosilicon. A short-term rebound is expected, but attention should be paid to upward pressure. Recommendation: Consider selling out-of-the-money call options for the January contract (3 strikes out of the box).

Rubber: On Wednesday, domestically produced full-latex rubber was priced at 14,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber was priced at 14,380 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. Raw materials: Yesterday, Thai latex closed at 56.3 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; Thai cup lump was unavailable; Yunnan latex closed at 13.6 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day; Hainan latex closed at 13.1 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.056 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, or 1.6%, from the previous day. China's total dark-colored rubber social inventory was 658,000 tons, an increase of 3%. Among them, Qingdao spot inventory increased by 3.6%; Yunnan increased by 0.5%; Vietnam No. 10 increased by 2.2%; and NR inventory increased by 4.7% in total. China's total social inventory of light-colored rubber was 398,000 tons, down 0.4% month-on-month. Among them, old full-latex rubber decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, 3L increased by 0.9% month-on-month, and RU inventory decreased by 0.9% in total. Viewpoint: Recent fundamental contradictions are limited. With the second wave of downward pressure from Sino-US trade relations, the current valuation bubble in unilateral prices may have been largely digested. Looking ahead, considering that the deterioration of Sino-US trade relations has not materialized, it means that China's economic growth has not actually faced additional downward pressure. The demand growth driven by anti-involution is already a reality. That is, assuming no unexpected changes on the supply side (seasonal increases in supply are rationally expected), the end point of demand-side pricing should not be lower than before the anti-involution measures were introduced in July. Furthermore, US tariffs this year may continue to suppress global demand growth. Therefore, it is expected that the future unilateral price range for RU&NR will be higher than the low point in early July but lower than the high point in mid-July.

Methanol: In terms of spot prices, Daqi was 1970, Luoyang 2050, and Lubei 2150. Some upstream factories saw premium transactions, and the sentiment of inland traders improved, with a good atmosphere for replenishing orders. In the short term, the spot coal winter storage window is expected to provide some support to the raw material side; upstream methanol production remains high, coupled with the postponement of inland gas-based maintenance, it is expected that inland plants will maintain high supply in the short term; inventory in producing areas is at a medium level, and there is some demand for destocking in winter; traders have high inventory and mainly supply downstream demand. On Wednesday, the basis in East China was 01-35, and the basis for November was 01-0 (data at Wednesday afternoon closing), with the basis maintaining a narrow range of fluctuation. In the short term, high imports from Iran and non-Iranian countries continue, and the reality of high port inventory and weak profits remains, with the profit of the industry chain recovering downstream; in the medium and long term, attention should be paid to Middle Eastern weather, Southwest gas prices, and environmental protection policies in producing areas. In terms of operation, methanol is expected to trade weakly in the short term, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended. The reference range for methanol 2601 is 2060-2200 yuan/ton.

Urea: In terms of spot prices, the ex-factory price in Shandong is 1540 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price in Henan is 1530-1540 yuan/ton. The domestic urea market is mainly fluctuating, with better transactions at lower prices. On the supply side, weekly urea production has rebounded to nearly 200,000 tons, and high production is expected to continue in the short term; some agricultural demand and reserve demand have been released, which will reduce the pressure on inland inventory to some extent; port inventory is being consumed rapidly, reaching a low level for the year; recent news in the compound fertilizer industry has been concentrated, which may boost demand to some extent. Overall, upstream suppliers have a certain willingness to support prices, and the supply and demand contradiction of urea has not been resolved. If futures prices rise significantly, there will be profit-taking in both spot and futures markets, resulting in short-term fluctuations and downward pressure; in the medium to long term, attention should be paid to export quotas and winter stockpiling. In terms of operation, urea prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the urea 2601 contract expected to fluctuate within a range of 1560-1660 yuan/ton.

Soda Ash: Soda ash futures fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday, while spot prices remained stable to decline. The commodity market saw more declines than gains on Wednesday, with market sentiment weak. From a fundamental perspective, recent soda ash maintenance schedules have decreased, and last week's soda ash production increased by 17,000 tons to 757,000 tons. Recent production changes have been minimal, and supply-side pressure continues. Downstream demand has stabilized compared to the previous week. The latest soda ash plant inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 1,692,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and the latest delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 11,000 tons to 666,000 tons compared to the previous week. Last week, there were no changes in float glass and photovoltaic glass production lines; this week, one photovoltaic glass production line and four float glass production lines underwent cold repairs. Recently, the combined daily melting capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has decreased slightly, leading to a slight decrease in demand for heavy soda ash and temporary stability in demand for light soda ash. Downstream and midstream purchasing activity was generally moderate. In September, soda ash imports rose slightly to 400 tons, while exports decreased to 187,900 tons, with exports showing a slight decline. On the macro front, recent domestic real estate sales data showed a month-on-month decline, falling below the level of the same period last year; the impact of international macroeconomic factors was neutral (the US dollar index fell, and concerns about trade frictions eased); domestic policy disturbances weakened. Overall, in the short term, new soda ash production capacity coming online will increase supply while demand remains weak, leading to a generally weak and volatile market. Regarding warehouse receipts, soda ash warehouse receipts decreased by 290 to 9618 on Wednesday. Short-term soda ash futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with SA2601 expected to trade within the 1180-1210 range intraday.

Glass: Glass futures rose and then fell on Wednesday, while spot prices remained stable. Short-term glass fundamentals have weakened slightly, with demand showing weakness. Last week, glass production remained stable compared to the previous week, downstream purchasing activity improved, and inventory decreased compared to the previous week. The latest glass inventory decreased by 41,000 tons to 3.29 million tons, an increase of 28.9% year-on-year. Four glass production lines underwent cold repairs this week. Recently, daily glass melting capacity has declined, with the latest daily melting capacity in operation at 159,275 tons/day, an increase of 0.3% year-on-year. From January to September, the completed floor space of domestic housing decreased by approximately 15.3% year-on-year (the decline narrowed). Recent real estate sales data showed a month-on-month decline, lower than the same period last year. The latest number of deep-processing orders for glass increased by 0.4 days to 10.8 days month-on-month, a decrease of 16.1% year-on-year. Short-term glass supply is decreasing, and demand is dragging down prices, with futures prices temporarily fluctuating. Short-term glass futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with FG2601 expected to trade between 1090-1120 intraday.

Rebar: In terms of the industry, rebar production increased by 55,200 tons to 2,125,900 tons last week, while social inventory decreased by 66,800 tons to 4,308,100 tons, and mill inventory decreased by 129,200 tons to 1,717,100 tons. Apparent demand rebounded by 61,900 tons compared to the previous week. Rebar demand is seasonally recovering, while supply is also increasing. Under this situation of both supply and demand growth, the fundamentals have limited improvement, and the pressure to reduce inventory has not subsided. Cost support weakened this week, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slightly downward bias.

Hot-rolled coil: Last week, hot-rolled coil production increased by 11,000 tons, while inventory decreased by 83,300 tons. Explicit demand rebounded by 51,600 tons to 3,318,900 tons. Short-term supply and demand pressures remain high, and inventory reduction during the peak season is less than expected. Demand is performing reasonably well, but there are underlying concerns. Fundamental material conditions are unlikely to improve substantially, and cost support weakens this week. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slightly downward bias.

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