Trump claimed that rising prices in the United States made it easier to pay bills and that he had successfully curbed inflation, while upward pressure on prices for all categories of goods in the U.S., from food and furniture to automobiles, continues to mount.

He posted on social media, saying "Stop making up lies," denying the ongoing crisis of unpaid bills. President Trump claimed he had successfully curbed inflation, but in reality, consumers are still under significant inflationary pressure.

Retail price increases continue, with significant increases in core commodities.

According to a special analysis by DataWeave, Target's average price per item rose 5.5% nationwide this year, while Walmart's rose 5.3%. The analysis covered approximately 16,000 core items across the two retailers' websites.

Another report indicates that Amazon's average price increase has exceeded 12%.

Seven months after Trump's tariff policy was implemented, Americans have had to pay higher costs for almost everything—from a cup of coffee and a high-end living room sofa to children's toys.

Food inflation is diverging, with meat and imported products under pressure.

According to September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, food inflation has fallen to 3.1%, a stark contrast to the double-digit increases during the Biden administration.

However, prices for some food items, especially meat, remain high due to multiple factors. Banana prices rose 8.6%, mainly due to tariffs (the US produces almost no bananas); chicken and egg prices continued to fluctuate due to the avian flu outbreak.

Beef prices have risen across the board—steak prices have increased by over 19%, and ground beef by 14%. Ranchers say the main reason is the drought leading to a reduction in cattle herd size, while tariffs on foreign beef have also contributed to the price increase. Trump has stated that he is considering increasing imports of Argentine beef to alleviate cost pressures on consumers.

Statements from the White House and politicians: Emphasizing policy effectiveness and easing pressure on consumption.

"Completely eradicating the inflation crisis of the Joe Biden era is a core priority for President Trump from his first day in office," White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement to The Washington Post on Thursday.

"Americans have already reduced their spending on necessities such as gasoline and eggs, and now the government has signed a new drug pricing agreement, bringing unprecedented savings in medical expenses to ordinary people."

He further stated that as the Trump administration continues its tax cuts and deregulation agenda, "stronger economic performance is still on the horizon."

Voters listed economic issues as a core topic in this election. The elected socialist mayor, Zohran Mamdani, promised during his campaign to provide free public services such as public transportation, with his core demand being to alleviate the pressure of high living costs in the city.

Vice President JD Vance urged Republicans on social media to “focus on the domestic economy and people’s livelihoods,” emphasizing that “affordability will be a key metric by which voters judge us in 2026.”

Public perception: Increased spending but decreased consumption, voter disappointment spreads.

Chris Sohan, 61, who lives in Queens, buys groceries for his wife, son, and himself every week, and says he hasn't felt any cost relief.

“Prices for all goods are high,” he said. “Now each shopping trip costs $50 to $100 more. I haven’t increased my purchases—I used to buy beef every week, now I buy it every two weeks, and I choose chicken more often.”

Sohan, who voted for Trump twice, is now deeply disappointed. He said, "I had high hopes for him because of his campaign promises, but he clearly cares more about wealthy allies than ordinary voters like me. If I could choose again, I would never vote for him."

Goldman Sachs warns that costs will be passed on to end consumers, who will ultimately bear the brunt of the burden.

For months, businesses have borne the brunt of the cost pressures from Trump’s tariffs, which cover major trading partners such as China and Vietnam and involve key goods such as furniture, aluminum products, automobiles and auto parts.

Businesses are now beginning to pass these costs on to end consumers—Goldman Sachs economists warn that by the end of this year, consumers will be the primary bearers of these costs.

According to publicly available market data, from January to the end of September, the average price of clothing on Amazon, Target, and Walmart rose by 11.5%.
Prices of home furnishings, pet supplies, daily necessities, health and beauty products, and durable goods (including electronics, furniture, and appliances) at these large chain retailers rose by 10.8%, 6.1%, 7%, and 8.3%, respectively.

Bill Currence, founder of the Cornerstone Consulting Organization, said that Amazon faces greater pressure to raise prices compared to its competitors because its core business model relies on third-party sellers. The organization's clients include Toyota, Volvo, and Amazon.

But he added that Amazon "still generates huge profits thanks to its dominant market share."

Collins pointed out to The Washington Post that most businesses may follow the business logic of "never wasting a crisis"—the real key is whether commodity prices will return to a reasonable range after the trade war settles down.

Retailers responded: They denied raising prices across the board; prices of some items remained stable or even decreased.

Amazon has denied claims of price increases across its entire product line. An Amazon spokesperson responded, "In any large retailer's product mix, if you were to carefully select items, you could find those with price increases. The fact is, we offer Amazon users competitively priced products... There have been no widespread price increases other than normal market fluctuations."

A Target spokesperson said the company has stabilized prices on some items, such as school supplies. Walmart revealed that it has permanently reduced prices on 2,000 items since February.

The impact of tariffs is becoming more tangible: furniture, electronics, and fast fashion companies are raising prices.

The impact of tariffs on prices can be illustrated by the following example: In October, the Trump administration imposed high new tariffs on goods such as medicines, kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and heavy trucks, with furniture tariffs reaching as high as 30%.

Later that month, IKEA raised the price of a three-piece oak bedroom furniture set from $949 in August to $1,049, and the price of an Uppland sofa also increased from $849 to $899.

Federal data shows that in September, prices for living room, kitchen and dining room furniture (which is mainly imported) rose 9.5% year-on-year, while furniture and bedding prices rose 4.7% and home furnishings and supplies prices rose 2.8% during the same period.

Most low-cost furniture sold in the US market (such as affordable chairs) comes from overseas, with China being the main supplier.

Bob King, founder and CEO of ergonomic office furniture manufacturer Humanscale, said that even high-end furniture made in the United States relies heavily on imports for its textiles and other components.

Toys, video games, and electronic products are also severely impacted by tariffs, as these goods generally rely on imports.

In August, Sony raised the price of the PlayStation 5 by $50 to $550, blaming the price increase on Trump's tariff policies, which it said cost the company $685 million annually.

According to social media reports, the price of a Tyrannosaurus Rex toy at Walmart surged from $39.92 to $55 in May.

The retailer's "Baby Born" doll price rose from $34.94 in March to $49.97 in May, while the "Etched Sketch" toy's price increased from $14.97 to $24.99 during the same period.

After the Trump administration revoked tariff exemptions previously enjoyed by fast fashion companies (exemptions that had been used to circumvent U.S. customs tariffs), these companies raised their product prices.

Impact of Dollar Index-Linked Trading: Bull-Bear Game Amid Inflation Divergence

From a foreign exchange trading perspective, the current divergence in inflation directly impacts the volatility of the US dollar index. Although the overall CPI has fallen to 3.1%, the "implicit inflation" resulting from rising core commodity prices and consumer cost pressures continues to support the Federal Reserve's relatively hawkish stance, providing a floor for the US dollar index.

The increased import costs caused by tariff policies have put pressure on the US trade deficit in the short term, but the downside potential of the dollar has been limited by global risk aversion and weak recovery in non-US economies, leading to increased range-bound trading.

However, it is worth noting that since the price increase is based on the increase in import and production costs, rather than the price increase caused by excessive money supply, the inflationary pressure may be alleviated by substituting products with cost advantages. In other words, the inflation may be a one-off event.

However, considering the more than 1 million layoffs in the US this year and the disappointing non-farm payroll data, the upside potential of the US dollar index is also limited until the US labor market crisis is disproven.

Traders can continue to track inflation data, as higher-than-expected increases could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain policy resilience and keep the dollar index strong. However, if there are signals such as consumption downgrades due to high commodity prices and contraction in consumption data, it could trigger profit-taking by dollar bulls and a short-term correction. In other words, short-term inflation will boost the dollar index, while long-term inflation will weaken it.


(US Dollar Index Daily Chart, Source: FX678)

At 20:56 Beijing time, the US dollar index is currently at 99.68.