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2025-11-12 20:34:43
[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Market Continues to Fluctuate] ⑴ The steel market exhibits characteristics of "low valuation and weak drivers," with prices at relatively low levels but lacking upward catalysts, and is expected to maintain low-level fluctuations in the short term. ⑵ The top 20 long and short positions in the rebar and hot-rolled coil 01 contract decreased, with short positions decreasing more significantly, easing downward pressure but lacking bullish confidence. ⑶ The rebar 01 contract is in a key fluctuation range of 3010-3060; attention should be paid to the direction of the breakout. ⑷ Iron ore supply and demand are weak, with shipments declining, pig iron production decreasing, and port inventories accumulating, lacking rebound momentum. ⑸ Steel mills' imported ore inventories are low, and restocking expectations and basis repair space limit the decline. ⑹ The top 20 long and short positions in the iron ore 01 contract decreased, with short positions decreasing more significantly; attention should be paid to fund flows. ⑺ Coking coal market sentiment weakened, traders' willingness to ship increased, and coking plants' purchasing enthusiasm declined. ⑻ Coal mine inventories are low, supply recovery is slow, and price support is strong. (9) It is recommended to wait and see before establishing long positions after winter stockpiling begins. (10) Both long and short positions in the top 20 coking coal 01 contract decreased, with a slight increase in short positions. (11) Coke production is constrained by environmental protection and profit requirements, while low steel mill inventories support restocking demand. (12) Expectations for a fourth round of price increases are strong, and the market is oscillating between cost support and declining demand, mainly following the trend of raw coal. (13) Supply and demand drivers for manganese silicon are weak, with factory operating rates declining and mill inventories increasing, but cost support is relatively strong. (14) Pay attention to the breakout of the 5700-5850 range for the manganese silicon 01 contract; the positions of the top 20 positions have not changed significantly.
