According to APP, global bond markets rallied across the board on Wednesday as US President Trump hinted that the war with Iran could end within weeks, while oil prices plummeted. Investors quickly repriced their expectations for interest rate hikes , and concerns about the energy crisis that had plagued global markets for a month showed a significant easing. Latest market data shows that yields on UK government bonds and Eurozone government bonds from countries such as France and Italy fell by more than 10 basis points; the yield on Germany's benchmark 10-year government bond fell 6 basis points to 2.94%, a new low since March 18. The yields on US 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds fell by as much as 6 basis points, to 3.73% and 4.26%, respectively. The yield on Japan's 40-year government bond fell 12 basis points to 3.795%. These changes reflect that investors' optimistic expectations of easing inflationary pressures are rapidly reshaping the global yield curve.

Trump's latest remarks ignited market expectations of a rapid decline in geopolitical risks. Coupled with falling energy prices, this significantly reduced global inflation expectations, driving up bond prices and lowering yields. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish comments on Monday clearly stated that "policy will remain flexible, focusing on the impact of economic data on growth and employment, rather than solely on energy price fluctuations." This statement further reinforced market pricing in a Fed rate cut this year, causing the 10-year Treasury yield to fall more rapidly.

To clearly illustrate the comparison of yield changes across different markets, the following table summarizes the performance differences of major global government bonds on Wednesday:

At a deeper level, the current broad-based rebound in the bond market is essentially driven by a dual force: a decline in risk premiums and a resurgence of easing expectations . The sharp drop in oil prices directly alleviated concerns about the energy crisis, reducing the necessity for central banks worldwide to tighten monetary policy. Simultaneously, Powell 's dovish signals refocused the market on economic growth risks rather than inflation, leading to a weakening dollar and further amplifying the rebound potential of gold and non-US currencies. However, despite the possibility of a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, based on previous market feedback, the probability of recurrence is high. Short-term volatility has not decreased significantly, and investors should be wary of another pullback in gold prices and continue to monitor the performance of long-term US Treasury yields .

Looking ahead, if the situation in Iran is confirmed to ease, global bond yields are expected to continue to decline, and oil prices may test lower support levels. Conversely, if there is further fluctuation, yields may rebound quickly, and gold's safe-haven appeal will reappear. Market focus has shifted from geopolitical risks to the Federal Reserve's policy path, with US employment and inflation data serving as key confirmation signals. Overall, global asset pricing is currently at a sensitive window between expectation correction and reality confirmation . Investors are advised to maintain flexible positions and closely monitor long-term US Treasury yields as a leading indicator.

Editor's Summary : Trump's hints at easing geopolitical tensions significantly boosted global bond markets and suppressed oil prices. The collective decline in yields signifies a temporary easing of energy crisis concerns. However, recurring risks and the actual implementation of Fed rate cut expectations will still determine future trends. The sustainability of the bond market rebound depends on the final verification of policy signals and geopolitical developments.