November 25th Financial Breakfast: The probability of a Fed rate cut surges, gold prices rebound above $4100, and geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Russia and Ukraine limit oil price declines.
2025-11-25 07:25:54
On Tuesday (November 25th, Beijing time), spot gold traded around $4128.50 per ounce. Gold prices rose nearly 1.7% on Monday, mainly benefiting from increasing market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. US crude oil traded around $58.92 per barrel. Market expectations of a possible Fed rate cut in December boosted risk assets, while investor caution regarding Russia's ability to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine to boost its oil exports limited the decline in oil prices.
U.S. stocks rose across the board on Monday, with a strong rebound in technology stocks pushing the Nasdaq up 2.69%, mainly driven by a significant increase in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
All three major indexes closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.44% and the S&P 500 climbing 1.55%. Economic data released after the government shutdown ended showed a weak labor market, coupled with dovish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, causing market expectations for a December rate cut to surge from 42.4% a week earlier to 85%.
Technology stocks led the market, with artificial intelligence-related stocks performing particularly strongly. Despite lingering investor concerns about tech stock valuations, Deutsche Bank released an optimistic forecast, predicting the S&P 500 will reach 8,000 points by the end of 2026, further boosting market sentiment.
With earnings season nearing its end, data shows that nearly 95% of S&P 500 companies have released their results, with 83% of them exceeding earnings expectations and overall profit growth projected at 14.7%. As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, the market will focus on upcoming retail data and holiday shopping season performance. Retailers such as Best Buy will release their earnings reports this week, providing further clues about consumer health.
Gold prices rose significantly on Monday, with spot gold gaining nearly 1.7% to $4,111.86 per ounce, mainly driven by growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. U.S. gold futures for December delivery also closed up 0.4%, settling at $4,094.2 per ounce.
"The market is increasingly convinced that the Fed will cut rates in December," said Bart Melek, head of commodities strategy at TD Securities. This expectation is supported by data – the CME FedWatch tool shows that the market now expects an 85% probability of a rate cut in December.
Investors' focus has now shifted to a number of key economic data releases scheduled for this week, including retail sales, jobless claims, and the producer price index. These data, delayed due to the government shutdown, will provide clearer guidance for the path of monetary policy.
Meanwhile, geopolitical factors continued to support gold prices. The United States and Ukraine continued talks on Monday to discuss ways to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, agreeing to revise earlier U.S. proposals that had been criticized as being too favorable to Moscow.
Other precious metals followed gold's upward trend: spot silver rose 1.7% to $50.84 per ounce; platinum rose 2.3% to $1,545.91; and palladium rose 1.7% to $1,398.21. Analysts believe that gold will remain within its current range-bound trading pattern, influenced by both the Federal Reserve policy debate and geopolitical volatility.
International oil prices rose about 1% on Monday, ending a previous losing streak. Market expectations of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December boosted risk assets, while investors remained cautious about Russia's ability to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine that would boost its oil exports.
At the close of trading, Brent crude futures rose 1.3% to settle at $63.37 a barrel; U.S. crude futures also rose 1.3% to settle at $58.84 a barrel.
The current oil market is affected by a mix of bullish and bearish factors: Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that current employment data supports another rate cut, which has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in December, potentially boosting economic growth and oil demand.
The United States and Ukraine continued talks on Monday on a plan to end the war, but markets remained skeptical about the peace process.
Russia's oil and gas revenues in November are likely to decline by about 35% year-on-year. Energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates believes that the recent weakness in oil prices is mainly due to the progress of the Ukraine-Russia peace talks, but the current reduction in risk premiums may be excessive. Analysts point out that the possibility of continued war remains, and geopolitical risks may be reintroduced into the oil market.
JPMorgan Chase maintained its 2026 oil price forecast, with Brent crude expected to average $58 per barrel and WTI crude average $54 per barrel. The bank also predicted that Brent and WTI crude average prices would fall to $57 and $53 per barrel respectively in 2027.
The market is closely watching upcoming US economic data and further progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, factors that will continue to dominate short-term oil price movements.
Global currency markets diverged on Monday, with the dollar index falling slightly by 0.1% to 100.15, mainly influenced by dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials. Meanwhile, the dollar bucked the trend, rising 0.2% against the yen to 156.755, as markets remained highly vigilant about potential intervention by Japanese authorities in the currency market.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated clearly on Monday that current labor market data supports another 25 basis point rate cut at the December policy meeting. This view echoes comments made by New York Fed President Williams last Friday, who believes the Fed can still cut rates "in the near future" without jeopardizing its inflation target. As a result, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectation of a December rate cut has surged from 30% to 85%.
Despite the overall weakening of the US dollar, the yen still faces downward pressure. Traders generally believe that the Japanese Ministry of Finance may intervene in the 158-162 yen range, and the thin trading this week due to the US Thanksgiving holiday may provide a suitable window for intervention. Japanese government advisor Takuji Aida publicly stated on Sunday that Japan has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to mitigate the negative impact of the yen's depreciation.
The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1526, while the pound rose slightly to $1.3108 ahead of Wednesday's UK budget announcement. Markets are closely watching upcoming US retail sales and producer price data, which could provide new direction for exchange rate movements.
As the debate within the Federal Reserve continues regarding "retrospective data" versus "forward-looking factors," currency market volatility is expected to intensify further, and investors should be wary of potential unexpected market movements during the holiday period.
The EU rejected a US proposal to lower steel and aluminum tariffs in exchange for easing digital regulations.
The EU's antitrust chief ruled out easing the group's technology regulations after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Brussels needed to amend its digital regulations in order to reach an agreement to reduce steel and aluminum tariffs. Lutnick said in an interview on Monday that the US would offer a "good steel and aluminum" deal in exchange for the EU relaxing its technology regulations. The US currently imposes a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum from the EU. "Europe's digital rules are not negotiable," European Commission Vice-President Teresa Ribera said in a statement later Monday. "We Europeans set these rules to ensure fair markets and protect consumers, while securing Europe's digital future."
Russia: The "European solution" to ending the Ukraine crisis is not constructive.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov stated on the 24th that Russia is aware of the peace plan proposed by Europe to end the Ukraine crisis, but that the plan is neither constructive nor in Russia's interest. Ushakov made this response in an interview with Russian media. Western media view this "European plan" as a "counter-proposal" from Europe to the 28-point new plan proposed by the United States.
The European Council approved the 2026 EU budget.
The European Council approved the 2026 EU budget on March 24. The total budget is €192.8 billion, with total expenditures set at €190.1 billion. Nicolai Wamen, the Danish Finance Minister whose country holds the rotating EU presidency and who is also the chief negotiator for the 2026 EU budget, said the 2026 budget focuses on priority areas such as defense, immigration, and competitiveness to "resolutely respond to the needs of European citizens." At the same time, the budget also retains some flexibility to "address evolving crises." In the 2026 budget, the EU has reserved a surplus of €715.7 million, in accordance with its spending commitments under its "multi-annual fiscal framework," to ensure its ability to respond to unforeseen circumstances. (Xinhua)
Russian Presidential Aide: Many aspects of the peace plan are acceptable; signals of a meeting with the US have been received.
On the 24th local time, Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov stated that the US plan regarding the Ukraine issue will undergo further refinement by Russia, Ukraine, Europe, and the US. According to information available to Russia, many aspects of the plan are acceptable. Russia has received signals from the US indicating a willingness to hold face-to-face meetings on the Ukraine issue, but no concrete consensus has yet been reached. Ushakov also stated that, in Russia's view, the European proposals for resolving the Ukraine issue are unconstructive and do not align with Russia's position.
Ukrainian officials: The previous 28-point peace plan no longer exists.
According to Ukraine's Interfax news agency, Oleksandr Bevz, chief advisor to the Ukrainian president's office, stated after the Geneva talks that the 28-point peace plan previously seen by everyone no longer exists; some points have been deleted, and others have been revised. Bevz stated, "Ukraine discussed every point of the proposed plan with the United States, and every comment from the Ukrainian side was responded to." He pointed out that conspiracy theories about this matter far outweigh the facts. The chief advisor to the president's office added, "One day I will write in my memoirs how the leadership of the delegation navigated a fog of manipulation to ensure that this meeting was not only successful but also constructive." As previously reported, Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to receive the full report from the Geneva negotiating delegation on Monday evening, and further steps will be determined based on the report.
Europe meticulously modifies the new US plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Representatives from the United States and Ukraine held talks in Geneva on November 23 regarding the U.S.-proposed "28-point" plan to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Prior to this, Ukraine met with national security advisors from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. The European side raised objections to the U.S. "28-point" plan point by point, primarily concerning Ukrainian territory, security guarantees, and the use of frozen Russian assets. Chen Yu, deputy director of the Institute of Eurasian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, pointed out that the U.S. and Europe have significant differences on many key issues related to ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, making it unlikely that a comprehensive solution can be reached overnight.
Venezuelan Vice President: US pressure is motivated by both economic and ideological factors.
On November 24, local time, the US government officially designated Venezuela's so-called "Solar Group" as a "foreign terrorist organization." In response, Venezuelan Vice President Rodriguez stated that the US military deployment near the Venezuelan coast was an attempt to intervene in Venezuela and seize its natural resources. Rodriguez emphasized that the US government's specific objective was to control Venezuela's oil, natural gas, gold, diamonds, iron, and bauxite. Furthermore, the US government expressed "unease and concern" about the political and ideological concepts supported by Venezuela, indicating that the motivations behind US pressure included not only economic factors but also ideological ones, attempting to undermine Venezuela's advocated development and sovereignty model. Recently, the US, under the pretext of "drug interdiction," deployed multiple warships in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela. Since early September, the US military has sunk more than 20 so-called "drug-trafficking ships" in the Caribbean Sea and the Eastern Pacific, resulting in the deaths of more than 80 people. Recent reports from the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) indicate that Venezuela is not a major source of drugs flowing into the US. The Venezuelan government has repeatedly accused the US of attempting to instigate regime change in Venezuela through military threats and of military expansion in Latin America. (CCTV News)
China's first optical quantum computer manufacturing plant completed
Photons are the fundamental particles that transmit electromagnetic interactions and are the smallest energy units of light. On the 24th, my country's first manufacturing plant for optical quantum computers was officially completed in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. The plant, covering approximately 5,000 square meters, integrates research and development, manufacturing, and testing, and is used to achieve the engineering, standardization, and large-scale production of optical quantum computers. The production of an optical quantum computer requires seven major processes, 223 procedures, and over 1,000 steps. Its technical principle involves first queuing photons into a special computing space, maintaining spacing, and continuously "circling" at high speed. Measurements then allow for single calculations to be completed within milliseconds, with tens of thousands of calculations per day. The mass production of optical quantum computers has officially entered the commercial stage, marking my country's progress in the field of quantum computing "from the laboratory to the production line." (CCTV News)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks rose across the board on Monday, with a strong rebound in technology stocks pushing the Nasdaq up 2.69%, mainly driven by a significant increase in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
All three major indexes closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.44% and the S&P 500 climbing 1.55%. Economic data released after the government shutdown ended showed a weak labor market, coupled with dovish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, causing market expectations for a December rate cut to surge from 42.4% a week earlier to 85%.
Technology stocks led the market, with artificial intelligence-related stocks performing particularly strongly. Despite lingering investor concerns about tech stock valuations, Deutsche Bank released an optimistic forecast, predicting the S&P 500 will reach 8,000 points by the end of 2026, further boosting market sentiment.
With earnings season nearing its end, data shows that nearly 95% of S&P 500 companies have released their results, with 83% of them exceeding earnings expectations and overall profit growth projected at 14.7%. As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, the market will focus on upcoming retail data and holiday shopping season performance. Retailers such as Best Buy will release their earnings reports this week, providing further clues about consumer health.
Gold Market
Gold prices rose significantly on Monday, with spot gold gaining nearly 1.7% to $4,111.86 per ounce, mainly driven by growing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. U.S. gold futures for December delivery also closed up 0.4%, settling at $4,094.2 per ounce.
"The market is increasingly convinced that the Fed will cut rates in December," said Bart Melek, head of commodities strategy at TD Securities. This expectation is supported by data – the CME FedWatch tool shows that the market now expects an 85% probability of a rate cut in December.
Investors' focus has now shifted to a number of key economic data releases scheduled for this week, including retail sales, jobless claims, and the producer price index. These data, delayed due to the government shutdown, will provide clearer guidance for the path of monetary policy.
Meanwhile, geopolitical factors continued to support gold prices. The United States and Ukraine continued talks on Monday to discuss ways to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, agreeing to revise earlier U.S. proposals that had been criticized as being too favorable to Moscow.
Other precious metals followed gold's upward trend: spot silver rose 1.7% to $50.84 per ounce; platinum rose 2.3% to $1,545.91; and palladium rose 1.7% to $1,398.21. Analysts believe that gold will remain within its current range-bound trading pattern, influenced by both the Federal Reserve policy debate and geopolitical volatility.
oil market
International oil prices rose about 1% on Monday, ending a previous losing streak. Market expectations of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December boosted risk assets, while investors remained cautious about Russia's ability to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine that would boost its oil exports.
At the close of trading, Brent crude futures rose 1.3% to settle at $63.37 a barrel; U.S. crude futures also rose 1.3% to settle at $58.84 a barrel.
The current oil market is affected by a mix of bullish and bearish factors: Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that current employment data supports another rate cut, which has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in December, potentially boosting economic growth and oil demand.
The United States and Ukraine continued talks on Monday on a plan to end the war, but markets remained skeptical about the peace process.
Russia's oil and gas revenues in November are likely to decline by about 35% year-on-year. Energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates believes that the recent weakness in oil prices is mainly due to the progress of the Ukraine-Russia peace talks, but the current reduction in risk premiums may be excessive. Analysts point out that the possibility of continued war remains, and geopolitical risks may be reintroduced into the oil market.
JPMorgan Chase maintained its 2026 oil price forecast, with Brent crude expected to average $58 per barrel and WTI crude average $54 per barrel. The bank also predicted that Brent and WTI crude average prices would fall to $57 and $53 per barrel respectively in 2027.
The market is closely watching upcoming US economic data and further progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, factors that will continue to dominate short-term oil price movements.
Foreign exchange market
Global currency markets diverged on Monday, with the dollar index falling slightly by 0.1% to 100.15, mainly influenced by dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials. Meanwhile, the dollar bucked the trend, rising 0.2% against the yen to 156.755, as markets remained highly vigilant about potential intervention by Japanese authorities in the currency market.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated clearly on Monday that current labor market data supports another 25 basis point rate cut at the December policy meeting. This view echoes comments made by New York Fed President Williams last Friday, who believes the Fed can still cut rates "in the near future" without jeopardizing its inflation target. As a result, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectation of a December rate cut has surged from 30% to 85%.
Despite the overall weakening of the US dollar, the yen still faces downward pressure. Traders generally believe that the Japanese Ministry of Finance may intervene in the 158-162 yen range, and the thin trading this week due to the US Thanksgiving holiday may provide a suitable window for intervention. Japanese government advisor Takuji Aida publicly stated on Sunday that Japan has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to mitigate the negative impact of the yen's depreciation.
The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1526, while the pound rose slightly to $1.3108 ahead of Wednesday's UK budget announcement. Markets are closely watching upcoming US retail sales and producer price data, which could provide new direction for exchange rate movements.
As the debate within the Federal Reserve continues regarding "retrospective data" versus "forward-looking factors," currency market volatility is expected to intensify further, and investors should be wary of potential unexpected market movements during the holiday period.
International News
The EU rejected a US proposal to lower steel and aluminum tariffs in exchange for easing digital regulations.
The EU's antitrust chief ruled out easing the group's technology regulations after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Brussels needed to amend its digital regulations in order to reach an agreement to reduce steel and aluminum tariffs. Lutnick said in an interview on Monday that the US would offer a "good steel and aluminum" deal in exchange for the EU relaxing its technology regulations. The US currently imposes a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum from the EU. "Europe's digital rules are not negotiable," European Commission Vice-President Teresa Ribera said in a statement later Monday. "We Europeans set these rules to ensure fair markets and protect consumers, while securing Europe's digital future."
Russia: The "European solution" to ending the Ukraine crisis is not constructive.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov stated on the 24th that Russia is aware of the peace plan proposed by Europe to end the Ukraine crisis, but that the plan is neither constructive nor in Russia's interest. Ushakov made this response in an interview with Russian media. Western media view this "European plan" as a "counter-proposal" from Europe to the 28-point new plan proposed by the United States.
The European Council approved the 2026 EU budget.
The European Council approved the 2026 EU budget on March 24. The total budget is €192.8 billion, with total expenditures set at €190.1 billion. Nicolai Wamen, the Danish Finance Minister whose country holds the rotating EU presidency and who is also the chief negotiator for the 2026 EU budget, said the 2026 budget focuses on priority areas such as defense, immigration, and competitiveness to "resolutely respond to the needs of European citizens." At the same time, the budget also retains some flexibility to "address evolving crises." In the 2026 budget, the EU has reserved a surplus of €715.7 million, in accordance with its spending commitments under its "multi-annual fiscal framework," to ensure its ability to respond to unforeseen circumstances. (Xinhua)
Russian Presidential Aide: Many aspects of the peace plan are acceptable; signals of a meeting with the US have been received.
On the 24th local time, Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov stated that the US plan regarding the Ukraine issue will undergo further refinement by Russia, Ukraine, Europe, and the US. According to information available to Russia, many aspects of the plan are acceptable. Russia has received signals from the US indicating a willingness to hold face-to-face meetings on the Ukraine issue, but no concrete consensus has yet been reached. Ushakov also stated that, in Russia's view, the European proposals for resolving the Ukraine issue are unconstructive and do not align with Russia's position.
Ukrainian officials: The previous 28-point peace plan no longer exists.
According to Ukraine's Interfax news agency, Oleksandr Bevz, chief advisor to the Ukrainian president's office, stated after the Geneva talks that the 28-point peace plan previously seen by everyone no longer exists; some points have been deleted, and others have been revised. Bevz stated, "Ukraine discussed every point of the proposed plan with the United States, and every comment from the Ukrainian side was responded to." He pointed out that conspiracy theories about this matter far outweigh the facts. The chief advisor to the president's office added, "One day I will write in my memoirs how the leadership of the delegation navigated a fog of manipulation to ensure that this meeting was not only successful but also constructive." As previously reported, Ukrainian President Zelensky is expected to receive the full report from the Geneva negotiating delegation on Monday evening, and further steps will be determined based on the report.
Europe meticulously modifies the new US plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Representatives from the United States and Ukraine held talks in Geneva on November 23 regarding the U.S.-proposed "28-point" plan to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Prior to this, Ukraine met with national security advisors from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. The European side raised objections to the U.S. "28-point" plan point by point, primarily concerning Ukrainian territory, security guarantees, and the use of frozen Russian assets. Chen Yu, deputy director of the Institute of Eurasian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, pointed out that the U.S. and Europe have significant differences on many key issues related to ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, making it unlikely that a comprehensive solution can be reached overnight.
Venezuelan Vice President: US pressure is motivated by both economic and ideological factors.
On November 24, local time, the US government officially designated Venezuela's so-called "Solar Group" as a "foreign terrorist organization." In response, Venezuelan Vice President Rodriguez stated that the US military deployment near the Venezuelan coast was an attempt to intervene in Venezuela and seize its natural resources. Rodriguez emphasized that the US government's specific objective was to control Venezuela's oil, natural gas, gold, diamonds, iron, and bauxite. Furthermore, the US government expressed "unease and concern" about the political and ideological concepts supported by Venezuela, indicating that the motivations behind US pressure included not only economic factors but also ideological ones, attempting to undermine Venezuela's advocated development and sovereignty model. Recently, the US, under the pretext of "drug interdiction," deployed multiple warships in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela. Since early September, the US military has sunk more than 20 so-called "drug-trafficking ships" in the Caribbean Sea and the Eastern Pacific, resulting in the deaths of more than 80 people. Recent reports from the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) indicate that Venezuela is not a major source of drugs flowing into the US. The Venezuelan government has repeatedly accused the US of attempting to instigate regime change in Venezuela through military threats and of military expansion in Latin America. (CCTV News)
Domestic News
China's first optical quantum computer manufacturing plant completed
Photons are the fundamental particles that transmit electromagnetic interactions and are the smallest energy units of light. On the 24th, my country's first manufacturing plant for optical quantum computers was officially completed in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. The plant, covering approximately 5,000 square meters, integrates research and development, manufacturing, and testing, and is used to achieve the engineering, standardization, and large-scale production of optical quantum computers. The production of an optical quantum computer requires seven major processes, 223 procedures, and over 1,000 steps. Its technical principle involves first queuing photons into a special computing space, maintaining spacing, and continuously "circling" at high speed. Measurements then allow for single calculations to be completed within milliseconds, with tens of thousands of calculations per day. The mass production of optical quantum computers has officially entered the commercial stage, marking my country's progress in the field of quantum computing "from the laboratory to the production line." (CCTV News)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
