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2025-12-03 14:21:44
[Inflationary Pressures Emerge in Australia, Rate Hike Expected to Happen in the First Half of Next Year] 1. Australia's third-quarter GDP data showed strong domestic demand growth, fueling market expectations of a shift in monetary policy. Many economists believe that inflationary pressures may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates in the first half of 2026, and even reverse a rate cut implemented in February of this year. 2. UBS Chief Economist George Tharenou pointed out that although his baseline forecast remains a rate hike at the end of next year, the risk balance has shifted towards around the middle of next year. He emphasized: "GDP data releases inflationary signals from the perspective of wages and unit labor costs, which is particularly alarming for the RBA." 3. The current market focus has shifted from "whether to raise interest rates" to "when to raise interest rates," with the continued strong performance of labor costs and domestic demand gradually changing the game of interest rate prospects.
