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[Market Expectations Show Diverging Policy Paths Among Major Central Banks; Fed and Bank of England May Be the Only Two to Cut Rates] ⑴ Market pricing indicates that traders' expectations for 2026 have shifted from rate cuts to rate hikes, with most major central banks adopting a more hawkish stance, except for the Federal Reserve. ⑵ The Fed is expected to cut rates by 54 basis points by the end of 2026, with a 73% probability of maintaining the rate at its next meeting; the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 61 basis points, with a 90% probability of a rate cut at its next meeting. ⑶ The Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, with a 93% probability of holding rates steady at its next meeting; the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 10 basis points, with a 100% probability of maintaining the rate at its next meeting. ⑷ The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 67 basis points, with a 76% probability of a rate hike at its next meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise rates by 40 basis points, with an 82% probability of maintaining the rate at its next meeting. ⑸ The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise rates by 58 basis points, with a 97% probability of maintaining the rate at its next meeting; the Swiss National Bank is expected to raise rates by 6 basis points, with a 100% probability of maintaining the rate at its next meeting. (6) Currently, only the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are still expected to cut interest rates several times before 2026. This divergence in monetary policy may put pressure on the US dollar and the British pound, but hawkish repricing triggered by economic data could also create trading opportunities. (7) Next week, the market will see the US non-farm payroll report and consumer price index data. This will be a crucial week, with the focus mainly on the non-farm payroll report, as the Federal Reserve continues to pay close attention to the labor market situation. (8) Strong data, especially a decline in the unemployment rate, could trigger a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations, thereby boosting the US dollar and putting pressure on stocks and precious metals. (9) Conversely, weak data will support expectations of further interest rate cuts, and the trend may continue. The US dollar may continue to weaken, stocks may reach new highs, and precious metals will remain strong.