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2025-12-12 19:27:30

[AI Frenzy Suffers "Oracle Curse": Trillion-Dollar Capital Expenditure Sparks Valuation Concerns] ⑴ A disappointing report from Oracle Corporation severely impacted the booming AI-related stock market. Its massive debt-financed AI investments and significant upward revision of its fiscal year 2026 capital expenditure forecast triggered market concerns about overvaluation and a bubble in AI, causing the stock price to plummet by over 16% in a single day. ⑵ This event reignited market scrutiny of the AI industry's capital expenditure frenzy and uncertain returns. Investors are worried about the unclear timeline for AI investment returns and are becoming increasingly selective, unwilling to indiscriminately reward massive expenditures. ⑶ However, market opinions are significantly divided. Some investors believe this is a unique problem for Oracle, whose cash flow and financial strength cannot compare with true tech giants like Microsoft and Google, and does not represent the overall predicament of the AI industry. ⑷ Market data shows that investors remain highly cautious about shorting AI giants, with short-selling interest mainly concentrated on small and mid-cap AI concept stocks rather than leading companies. This indicates that the market has not formed a broad and coordinated bearish bet on an AI bubble. (5) A key sign of market resilience is that despite the sharp declines in the share prices of companies like Oracle, the S&P 500 still closed higher on Thursday, hitting a record high, suggesting that the market may be undergoing a healthy sector rotation rather than a systemic collapse. (6) The core challenge now lies in whether the market can successfully shift from overly enthusiastic speculative trading to a more fundamentally driven logic focused on actual earnings and cash flow without triggering a significant overall index correction. So far, the market is attempting this difficult transition.

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