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[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Market Continues to Diverge, with Diverse Drivers Among Varieties] ⑴ Steel inventories continue to decline, easing high inventory pressure, but remain at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. ⑵ Current demand expectations are weak, coupled with a continued decline in pig iron production, gradually weakening cost support. ⑶ The rebar 05 contract showed a declining trend with reduced volume, with the top 20 positions showing an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions; the hot-rolled coil 05 contract saw a more significant increase in long positions, with overall position changes leaning towards the bullish side. ⑷ The steel market itself has limited industry-driven factors, and prices may mainly follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with limited upside and downside potential. It is recommended to closely monitor the pace and intensity of raw material winter stockpiling. ⑸ The continued decline in pig iron production weakens the rigid demand for iron ore, and port inventories continue to accumulate and remain at an absolute high level, putting overall price pressure. ⑹ Steel mills' imported iron ore inventories have fallen to a relatively low level in recent years, and with the winter stockpiling period approaching, the expected bottom support is gradually strengthening. (7) The top 20 positions in the iron ore 05 contract mainly reduced short positions, and the price is likely to fluctuate within the 745-775 yuan range in the short term, lacking a clear unilateral driver. (8) The coking coal market maintains a pattern of intertwined "weak reality" and "weak expectations." After entering December, the scope of coal mine production cuts expanded, and the supply in producing areas continued to tighten. (9) The top 20 positions in the main 05 contract significantly reduced short positions, and some floating profits began to be realized. Prices may have approached a stage bottom, and valuations are low, making it unprofitable to continue shorting. (10) Regarding coke, some coking plants' production was restricted due to environmental protection measures, resulting in a tightening supply. After the second round of price reductions was implemented, steel mill purchases rebounded somewhat, but overall purchasing sentiment remained weak. (11) The coke 01 contract price has already priced in about five rounds of price reduction expectations, while the spot market generally expects only three rounds. The pessimistic expectation of a decline in spot prices has been fully reflected in the futures market, and valuations have entered a low range. 12. Operating rates at ferromanganese manufacturers have risen slightly, while demand continues to decline. With supply increasing and demand decreasing, inventories continue to rise. However, manganese ore prices remain stable, and manufacturers are inclined to maintain prices. Therefore, short-term price fluctuations may be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the 5660-5800 yuan trading range of the March contract can be effectively broken.