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[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector: Geopolitical Disturbances and Weak Demand Struggle, Most Commodities Expected to Trade Weakly] ⑴ Recent geopolitical tensions have become more complex. The US intervention in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has had limited effect, and a short-term end to the conflict is unlikely. ⑵ The US National Security Strategy report designates the Western Hemisphere as a "core interest zone" and a "homeland security zone," and is preparing to seize more oil tankers off the Venezuelan coast. Geopolitical uncertainty supports oil prices. ⑶ Crude oil prices encountered resistance and fell back between the 20- and 60-day moving averages. Downstream refined oil demand is weak, and inventories have risen above seasonal levels. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. ⑷ Regarding fuel oil, the Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue but are unlikely to yield results in the short term. The probability of a US military strike against Venezuela is increasing. ⑸ The expectation of reduced high-sulfur fuel oil supply due to sanctions remains, but fuel oil prices are expected to follow suit with weak fluctuations due to weakening downstream demand. ⑹ In the glass market, despite upstream production cuts, the market is concerned that a premature rebound in prices could lead to delays or cancellations of cold repair plans. Furthermore, midstream inventories are large, and the valuation of the May contract has begun to decline. (7) Demand weakened significantly year-on-year, losses worsened, and expectations for float glass cold repairs and production conversion strengthened, but the supply-demand pattern has not yet reversed. Upstream inventory decreased by 2.05% this week, but midstream inventory remained high, indicating a clear "low valuation and weak driver," and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly at low levels. (8) Regarding soda ash, the Alashan Phase II plant was ignited, and the new production line at Yinghua Chemical will also be ignited, further highlighting supply and demand pressures. (9) On Thursday, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 0.82 million tons compared to Monday. Today, the soda ash operating rate was 84.22%, with basis offers for Hebei warehouse delivery at flat to 01-20, and Shahe delivery at 01+10 to 20. (10) With maintenance support, soda ash can basically achieve a supply-demand balance, but the market is suppressed by declining costs, expectations of supply recovery, and overcapacity; short selling on rallies is advisable. (11) In the caustic soda market, liquid soda prices remained stable in some regions. A few companies in southwestern Shandong slightly lowered prices due to poor sales at high prices, while the overall inventory in northern Shandong remained low, with expectations of further price increases. 12. The sharp drop in liquid chlorine prices supported the temporary stability of liquid caustic soda prices, and domestic inventories began to decline (down 9.46% month-on-month), slightly improving the supply and demand situation. However, caustic soda remains in a state of high supply and high inventory, and the weak reality continues. Furthermore, the continued decline in alumina prices strengthens expectations of production cuts, and non-aluminum products are in the off-season. Therefore, caustic soda prices are likely to continue to fluctuate at low levels. 13. In the methanol market, today's spot price in Taicang was 2092 yuan, down 13 yuan, and the price in the northern Inner Mongolia region was 1965 yuan, down 17.5 yuan. 14. The inland methanol market is weak. Auction transactions at enterprises were relatively smooth, while the basis in the port methanol market was weak, and negotiated transactions were generally average. 15. This week, factory inventories decreased by 0.87 million tons, and port inventories decreased by 11.5 million tons. However, absolute methanol inventories are still high. Due to the risk of reduced imports in the far-month market caused by Iranian gas restrictions, the near-term outlook remains weak while the far-term outlook remains strong. The methanol market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with price fluctuations narrowing.