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[Fed's "Hawkish" Figure Reveals His Hand: Inflation Uncertainty is the Only Concern; Rate Cut Expected Next Year but Needs to Be Waited For] ⑴ Chicago Fed President Goolsby elaborated on his reasons for opposing this week's rate cut in an interview, emphasizing that current inflation cannot be assumed to be temporary and more data is needed to confirm that inflation is declining. He believes that waiting until the first quarter of next year will give the Fed more confidence. ⑵ He explained that he is not "hawkish" on next year's interest rates; on the contrary, he is optimistic that rates will decline next year, but he is uneasy about "front-loading" easing policies at the current juncture. ⑶ Goolsby pointed out that prices are one of the main concerns for businesses and consumers regarding the economy, and inflation in the service sector before the government shutdown is also a concern. Although there are reasons to believe that inflation will decline next year, the Fed needs more certainty. ⑷ Regarding the labor market, he believes that various indicators are "quite stable," with low hiring and low layoffs, which does not suggest a cyclical downturn in the economy, and he expects the unemployment rate to remain broadly stable. ⑸ On interest rate forecasts, Goolsby stated that his expected rate cut in 2026 is lower than the median forecast of the Federal Open Market Committee. He expects signs of declining inflation to appear in the first quarter of next year. (6) Regarding the recent market focus on the independence of the Federal Reserve's personnel and policies, he insisted that the re-election process for regional Fed presidents is "very sound," and that those involved take their work seriously, which is the foundation of the Fed's independence. He also emphasized that restarting securities purchases is a technical operation to ensure interest rate control, not part of monetary policy.