Download App

[Caixin Futures: Short-Term Outlook for the Ferrous Metals Market, Cost-Driven Price Fluctuations Dominate Range-Bound Trading] ⑴ In the steel market, while the actual pressure has eased marginally, the expected supply and demand are weak, and upward momentum remains insufficient before full-scale restocking begins. ⑵ Meanwhile, relatively low valuations and gradually strengthening cost support provide downside protection. The rebar 05 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the core fluctuation range likely between 3040 and 3100. ⑶ From a capital structure perspective, the top 20 long positions in the rebar and hot-rolled coil 05 contract have seen a more significant increase, with overall position changes signaling a bullish bias. ⑷ In summary, the steel industry's own driving force is relatively limited, and price movements in the short term will likely be mainly anchored to cost fluctuations, with both upward and downward potential constrained. ⑸ Operationally, it is recommended to closely monitor the actual pace and extent of raw material winter stockpiling. ⑹ In the iron ore market, from a practical perspective, pig iron production continues to decline, port inventories continue to accumulate and remain at absolute high levels, putting overall price pressure on the market. (7) From an expectation perspective, steel mills' imported iron ore inventories have fallen to a relatively low level in recent years. With the winter stockpiling season approaching, the expectation of price support at the bottom is gradually strengthening. (8) In the short term, the iron ore 05 contract may fluctuate within the range of 745-775 yuan. (9) In terms of capital, both long and short positions in the top 20 positions of the 05 contract decreased, indicating a more cautious market sentiment. (10) In summary, the iron ore market lacks a clear unilateral driver in the short term, with bullish and bearish factors balancing each other, and the oscillating pattern may continue. (11) In the coking coal market, under the combined influence of policy guidance and low valuations, the market is showing signs of bottoming out and rebounding. (12) From a fundamental perspective, current coal mine production is generally stable, and with the gradual start of winter stockpiling, downstream demand is expected to improve marginally, and futures prices may have bottomed out in stages. (13) In terms of capital, the top 20 positions of the main 05 contract showed an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions, with the position structure conveying a bullish signal. 14. Operationally, it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long after spot prices stabilize. 15. In the coking coal market, environmental protection restrictions in production areas have been largely lifted, and related enterprises are gradually increasing production, leading to a month-on-month increase in coking coal supply. 16. On the demand side, affected by the continued decline in pig iron production, rigid demand is weak, and coupled with the accumulation of inventory at coking plants, the third round of spot price reductions may be implemented this week. 17. In terms of valuation, the current coking coal 01 contract price already reflects expectations of about five rounds of price reductions, while the spot market generally expects only three. 18. The pessimistic expectations for the spot market have been largely priced in, and valuations have entered a relatively low range. 19. Overall, the coking coal market is currently in a game between "low valuation" and "weak driving forces."