2025-12-15 20:57:15
[Caixin Futures: Short-Term Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals and New Energy Markets; Macro Sentiment is Positive, Most Commodities Recommended for Buying on Dips] ⑴ Shanghai Copper: After a sharp drop in prices on Friday night, the positive news was fully priced in, but prices rebounded in today's daytime session as sentiment improved. ⑵ Macroeconomic factors: The Fed's dovish stance at its December meeting and expectations of a dovish candidate for the next Fed Chair have led to continued market optimism. ⑶ Fundamentals: On the supply side, domestic and imported supplies are limited, but year-end sales have significantly increased, resulting in ample supply in the spot market. ⑷ Strategically, we believe that buying on dips remains the best approach, waiting for market entry opportunities. ⑸ Shanghai Zinc: The macroeconomic environment is also supported by dovish Fed expectations, leading to optimistic market sentiment. ⑹ Fundamentals: Zinc concentrate processing fees continue to decline, smelter profits are affected, reducing production willingness. Domestic zinc ingot inventories are continuously decreasing, providing support on the supply side, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term. (7) Considering the long-term trend of supply increasing and demand remaining stable, the zinc supply-demand balance tends to have a surplus. The realization of the current surplus expectation still depends on further transmission from the mining to the smelting end, limiting the long-term upside potential for zinc prices. (8) Regarding precious metals, prices also experienced a sharp drop in Friday night trading, but rebounded in today's daytime trading as sentiment improved. (9) At the macro level, the Fed's dovish expectations continue to boost market sentiment. (10) In the long term, precious metal prices still have support, and a buy-on-dips strategy is advisable. (11) Prices may continue to fluctuate sharply in the near term; investors should operate cautiously and avoid chasing highs and lows. (12) Regarding alumina, the rebound was significant due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals still maintain a supply surplus situation. (13) Some high-cost enterprises are already facing losses, but there has been no large-scale production cut, and inventories are still accumulating. (14) Approximately 9 million tons of domestic capacity is expected to come online in 2026, making it difficult to improve the overall surplus situation, and a trend reversal is unlikely in the short term. 12. Short-term traders can consider a rebound-selling strategy, but should pay attention to whether production companies experience loss-making production cuts and be wary of unexpected supply-side shocks. 13. Regarding aluminum and cast aluminum, affected by declining global market risk appetite, they followed the non-ferrous metals sector's decline in Friday night trading. 14. However, given the overall bullish macroeconomic environment both domestically and internationally, coupled with expectations of tightening overseas supply, the medium- to long-term upward trend remains unchanged, and the strategy remains primarily to buy on dips. 18. Going forward, attention should be paid to domestic demand and inventory trends.