A weakening US dollar index has led to a bullish technical outlook for gold and silver, resulting in a significant price increase.
2025-12-15 23:06:29
Gold and silver prices surged in early U.S. trading on Monday (December 14), both nearing record highs. The two precious metals were supported by strong technical buying and benefited from a weakening U.S. dollar index. February gold futures rose $16.50 to $4,344.80 an ounce, while March silver futures rose $1.238 to $63.235 an ounce.
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indices are expected to open higher when trading begins in New York.
In overnight news, China Minmetals Group acquired Equinox Gold Corp's Brazilian operations for $1 billion, further expanding its presence in the precious metals sector. This transaction will give Minmetals full ownership of several mines or deposits in Brazil, while Equinox will receive $900 million in cash, plus up to $115 million in contingent payments. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of next year, at which point Minmetals will have full control of the Aurizona, RDM, Fazenda, and Santa Luz mines, which collectively have a stable annual gold production.
U.S., Ukrainian, and EU officials held further peace talks in Berlin. Ukraine and the United States will hold their second day of talks in Berlin, Germany, on Tuesday to discuss plans to end the Russian war, with allied security guarantees for Kyiv being a central issue. About 10 European leaders are also expected to attend today's summit, including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his team held more than five hours of talks at the German Federal Chancellery with U.S. officials led by special envoy Steve Vitkov and Jared Kushner, son-in-law of U.S. President Donald Trump. An informed source revealed that the two sides discussed the territorial issue of Ukraine, with the U.S. supporting Russia's demand for Kyiv to withdraw its troops from parts of eastern Donetsk—areas where Russian forces have failed to capture since 2014. The source said Zelensky has repeatedly rejected this demand and, along with European allies, insists on a ceasefire along the current line of contact. The source requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions. Zelensky told reporters on Sunday that Kyiv might abandon its long-standing goal of joining NATO if it could reach bilateral security agreements with the United States, Europe, and other countries, potentially including Canada and Japan. These agreements would function similarly to NATO's Article 5 collective defense commitment to prevent further war.
Warsh and Hassett are Trump's top choices for Federal Reserve Chairman. President Trump stated that Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are his top choices to lead the Federal Reserve, and he expects the next Fed chairman to consult with him on interest rates. Last Friday, Trump indicated that former Fed Governor Warsh had entered the shortlist and was poised to challenge Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council—a position many previously considered a frontrunner. "I think both Kevins are very good," he said. "I also think there are several other excellent people." Trump had previously hinted at a decision, saying on Monday he had "a fairly clear idea" of his nominees. The president also stated last month that he knew who he would choose for the position. These latest comments suggest the selection process is still evolving.
Signs of a global oil glut are becoming increasingly apparent. A report states that the Middle East oil market is weakening due to concerns that regional supply will exceed demand, further highlighting the global market's weakness. The premium of Abu Dhabi's flagship Murban crude over Brent crude has fallen to its lowest level since early October, a signal of market concerns about an oversupply in the Middle East. The International Energy Agency predicts a record global oil glut next year, with the glut expected to worsen further by 2026.
China's industrial output growth hit a 15-month low. In November, China's industrial output rose 4.8% year-on-year, down from 4.9% in October and below the expected 5.0% growth rate. This is the lowest year-on-year increase since August 2024, mainly due to weaker output in manufacturing and utilities. Meanwhile, China's total retail sales of consumer goods rose 1.3% year-on-year in November, below the expected 2.9%.
Key external market developments today show that the US dollar index fell slightly; crude oil prices declined slightly, trading around $57.00 per barrel; and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is currently at 4.17%.
Technical Analysis
(COMEX Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678)
From a technical perspective, the next upside price target for February gold futures bulls is a close above the strong resistance level of $4433.00, the contract/historical high. The near-term downside price target for bears is to push futures prices below the strong technical support level of $4200.00. The first resistance level is seen at last week's high of $4387.00, followed by $4400.00; the first support level is seen at the overnight low of $4324.40, followed by $4300.00.
The next upside price target for March silver futures bulls is a close above the strong technical resistance level of $70.00. The next downside price target for bears is a close below the strong support level of $57.00. First resistance is seen at $65.00, followed by the all-time high of $65.085; the next support is seen at $63.00, followed by $62.50.
Note: The gold market operates primarily through two pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for immediate purchase and delivery; the second is the futures market, which determines the price for delivery on a future date. Due to year-end position adjustments and market liquidity, the most actively traded contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is currently the December gold futures contract.
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indices are expected to open higher when trading begins in New York.
In overnight news, China Minmetals Group acquired Equinox Gold Corp's Brazilian operations for $1 billion, further expanding its presence in the precious metals sector. This transaction will give Minmetals full ownership of several mines or deposits in Brazil, while Equinox will receive $900 million in cash, plus up to $115 million in contingent payments. The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of next year, at which point Minmetals will have full control of the Aurizona, RDM, Fazenda, and Santa Luz mines, which collectively have a stable annual gold production.
U.S., Ukrainian, and EU officials held further peace talks in Berlin. Ukraine and the United States will hold their second day of talks in Berlin, Germany, on Tuesday to discuss plans to end the Russian war, with allied security guarantees for Kyiv being a central issue. About 10 European leaders are also expected to attend today's summit, including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his team held more than five hours of talks at the German Federal Chancellery with U.S. officials led by special envoy Steve Vitkov and Jared Kushner, son-in-law of U.S. President Donald Trump. An informed source revealed that the two sides discussed the territorial issue of Ukraine, with the U.S. supporting Russia's demand for Kyiv to withdraw its troops from parts of eastern Donetsk—areas where Russian forces have failed to capture since 2014. The source said Zelensky has repeatedly rejected this demand and, along with European allies, insists on a ceasefire along the current line of contact. The source requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions. Zelensky told reporters on Sunday that Kyiv might abandon its long-standing goal of joining NATO if it could reach bilateral security agreements with the United States, Europe, and other countries, potentially including Canada and Japan. These agreements would function similarly to NATO's Article 5 collective defense commitment to prevent further war.
Warsh and Hassett are Trump's top choices for Federal Reserve Chairman. President Trump stated that Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are his top choices to lead the Federal Reserve, and he expects the next Fed chairman to consult with him on interest rates. Last Friday, Trump indicated that former Fed Governor Warsh had entered the shortlist and was poised to challenge Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council—a position many previously considered a frontrunner. "I think both Kevins are very good," he said. "I also think there are several other excellent people." Trump had previously hinted at a decision, saying on Monday he had "a fairly clear idea" of his nominees. The president also stated last month that he knew who he would choose for the position. These latest comments suggest the selection process is still evolving.
Signs of a global oil glut are becoming increasingly apparent. A report states that the Middle East oil market is weakening due to concerns that regional supply will exceed demand, further highlighting the global market's weakness. The premium of Abu Dhabi's flagship Murban crude over Brent crude has fallen to its lowest level since early October, a signal of market concerns about an oversupply in the Middle East. The International Energy Agency predicts a record global oil glut next year, with the glut expected to worsen further by 2026.
China's industrial output growth hit a 15-month low. In November, China's industrial output rose 4.8% year-on-year, down from 4.9% in October and below the expected 5.0% growth rate. This is the lowest year-on-year increase since August 2024, mainly due to weaker output in manufacturing and utilities. Meanwhile, China's total retail sales of consumer goods rose 1.3% year-on-year in November, below the expected 2.9%.
Key external market developments today show that the US dollar index fell slightly; crude oil prices declined slightly, trading around $57.00 per barrel; and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is currently at 4.17%.
Technical Analysis
(COMEX Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678)
From a technical perspective, the next upside price target for February gold futures bulls is a close above the strong resistance level of $4433.00, the contract/historical high. The near-term downside price target for bears is to push futures prices below the strong technical support level of $4200.00. The first resistance level is seen at last week's high of $4387.00, followed by $4400.00; the first support level is seen at the overnight low of $4324.40, followed by $4300.00.
The next upside price target for March silver futures bulls is a close above the strong technical resistance level of $70.00. The next downside price target for bears is a close below the strong support level of $57.00. First resistance is seen at $65.00, followed by the all-time high of $65.085; the next support is seen at $63.00, followed by $62.50.
Note: The gold market operates primarily through two pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for immediate purchase and delivery; the second is the futures market, which determines the price for delivery on a future date. Due to year-end position adjustments and market liquidity, the most actively traded contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is currently the December gold futures contract.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
