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[Borders Beyond National Borders: Carbon Costs Spread Deeper into the Industrial Chain] ⑴ At dawn on December 17th, Beijing time, a draft document from the European Commission revealed that the carbon border adjustment mechanism is planned to extend its coverage to downstream products of steel and aluminum, shifting the policy focus from the "raw material end" to the "end of the value chain." ⑵ The document explicitly states that this move aims to block circumvention channels and prevent foreign companies from bypassing existing carbon border costs through processing transfers; the core objective remains reducing the risk of carbon leakage. ⑶ This means that in the future, when related products enter the EU market, carbon costs will no longer be reflected only in primary metals but will gradually be embedded in more complex industrial manufactured goods. ⑷ Structurally, the policy impact is not limited to trade but will reshape pricing logic; the cost transmission capacity of downstream manufacturers will become a key variable. ⑸ Meanwhile, another draft document shows that the EU plans to establish a new industry support fund, with 25% of the carbon border adjustment mechanism revenue, to support the EU's domestic industrial system. ⑹ This arrangement forms a closed loop in its mechanism design: external products bear higher carbon costs, while internal industries receive some support to buffer the pressure of transformation. (7) For the market, the aluminum and steel-related industrial chains are no longer facing just demand cycle issues, but rather a long-term cost redistribution brought about by rule changes. (8) In this context, companies' competitive advantages will depend more on low-carbon pathways, production efficiency, and the speed of adaptation to policy pace. (9) From a trading psychology perspective, short-term fluctuations may be limited, but medium- to long-term expectations are shifting, and the sensitivity of each link in the industrial chain to "carbon pricing" will continue to rise.