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2025-12-16 20:35:26

[Caixin Futures: Most Agricultural Products Sector Under Pressure, Oilseeds Show Weak Performance] ⑴ The oilseed sector declined overall today. Customs data shows that from January to November, cumulative imports of vegetable oil reached 6.27 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%; from January to October, imports of rapeseed oil reached 1.74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19%; imports of palm oil liquid reached 1.94 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16%; and imports of soybean oil reached 290,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. ⑵ In the spot market, the pre-holiday bulk oil purchasing window for branded vegetable oils is nearing its end, and spot prices are generally weakening. Specifically, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8430 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from yesterday; the spot price of soybean oil is 8390 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; and the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9400 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. ⑶ From a trading logic perspective, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that social retail sales declined year-on-year in November, with catering and grain and oil sub-categories declining by 0.6% and 3% year-on-year, respectively. Coupled with the current high inventory levels of oilseeds, a sell-on-rallies strategy is recommended. (4) Soybean meal futures have been fluctuating recently. US soybean prices have gradually returned to rationality from previous optimistic export expectations, leading to a pullback. Domestic soybean meal prices are generally bearish in the medium term due to lower import costs and ongoing domestic pressure. (5) Recently, tightened customs policies have delayed the arrival of some imported soybeans, causing domestic soybean meal prices to stabilize. Short-term, it is recommended to sell on rallies. (6) Recent market declines have somewhat dampened farmers' reluctance to sell, leading to increased selling activity. However, northern port inventories remain low year-on-year, and the logic of short-term restocking demand driving a stronger corn spot market remains. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then buy on dips. Continued monitoring of farmers' selling sentiment is necessary. (7) With the winter solstice approaching, the peak season for cured meat demand is approaching, leading to a stronger spot market. Coupled with news of swine disease in northern China, spot prices have rebounded. However, the long-term supply situation remains loose. It is recommended to sell short the March hog contract on rallies, paying attention to the slaughtering pace and the peak demand during the winter solstice. (8) Spot egg prices have been mainly fluctuating within a range recently. Although the egg 01 contract is a peak season contract, it is still maintaining a high premium, indicating a high valuation. It is recommended to consider shorting at appropriate times, but it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of changes in feed costs such as corn and soybean meal on egg prices.

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