Institutional analysis of November non-farm payrolls: Expectations for further easing by the Federal Reserve have increased.
2025-12-16 21:47:28
On Tuesday (December 16), data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 64,000 in November, higher than the market consensus.
The November jobs report and some updates to the October report did not include the unemployment rate and other October data because the government was shut down for 43 days and unable to collect household data. The U.S. economy lost 105,000 jobs in October, reflecting the departure of more than 150,000 federal employees who accepted deferred buyouts as part of the Trump administration's efforts to reduce government influence. Most of them disappeared from the government's payroll at the end of September.
The figure for non-farm payrolls in August was revised from -4,000 to -26,000; the figure for September was revised from 119,000 to 108,000. After the revisions, the combined number of new jobs in August and September was 33,000 lower than before the revisions.
Following the release of the employment data, U.S. federal funds futures indicated that the probability of a rate cut in January rose slightly from 22% before the data release to 31%. U.S. interest rate futures still project two rate cuts in 2026; the expected easing next year is 58 basis points.
Institutional Views
Analyst Anstey pointed out that November's non-farm payroll data slightly exceeded expectations, recording 64,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, which may attract the attention of the Federal Reserve. However, the labor force participation rate increased, so the rise in the unemployment rate may not be entirely bad news; we still need to examine the specific data more closely. US stock index futures rose, and the two-year US Treasury yield fell—based on the weak performance of non-farm payroll data in recent months, market expectations for further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve have increased. It should be noted that the data for August and September were also revised down by a combined 33,000.
The November jobs report and some updates to the October report did not include the unemployment rate and other October data because the government was shut down for 43 days and unable to collect household data. The U.S. economy lost 105,000 jobs in October, reflecting the departure of more than 150,000 federal employees who accepted deferred buyouts as part of the Trump administration's efforts to reduce government influence. Most of them disappeared from the government's payroll at the end of September.
The figure for non-farm payrolls in August was revised from -4,000 to -26,000; the figure for September was revised from 119,000 to 108,000. After the revisions, the combined number of new jobs in August and September was 33,000 lower than before the revisions.
Following the release of the employment data, U.S. federal funds futures indicated that the probability of a rate cut in January rose slightly from 22% before the data release to 31%. U.S. interest rate futures still project two rate cuts in 2026; the expected easing next year is 58 basis points.
Institutional Views
Analyst Anstey pointed out that November's non-farm payroll data slightly exceeded expectations, recording 64,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, which may attract the attention of the Federal Reserve. However, the labor force participation rate increased, so the rise in the unemployment rate may not be entirely bad news; we still need to examine the specific data more closely. US stock index futures rose, and the two-year US Treasury yield fell—based on the weak performance of non-farm payroll data in recent months, market expectations for further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve have increased. It should be noted that the data for August and September were also revised down by a combined 33,000.
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