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2025-12-16 22:10:41
[Interest Rate Stalemate: Can Slowing Wages Break the Bond Market's "Range Curse"?] ⑴ Interest rate strategists point out that while it's difficult to define the overall data as strong, the muted reaction in the interest rate market is not surprising. ⑵ The market is more focused on wage growth, which has slowed to 3.5% year-on-year, the lowest level in this cycle. ⑶ This change leaves open the possibility of further easing by the Federal Reserve. ⑷ However, the Fed needs to observe the December non-farm payrolls and retail sales data before making a clearer judgment on the subsequent policy path. ⑸ Given that current data has not yet shown a clear trend shift, long-term interest rates are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. ⑹ The slowdown in wage growth is a key signal, but it is not enough to trigger strong market expectations of an immediate policy shift.
