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2025-12-17 21:01:22
[The US Economy Hangs by a Thread: A Stagnant Job Market and the Hidden Dangers of Tariff Costs and Consumer Disconnection] ⑴ The current US economy presents a fragile balance. Despite widespread market concerns at the beginning of the year that Trump's tariff rhetoric would trigger a recession, real GDP is still projected to grow by 1.9% this year, and the unemployment rate is only rising slowly. ⑵ This "balance" largely benefits from the government's withdrawal or postponement of some stringent measures, but the average 17% goods-related tariff rate still constitutes a persistent burden, with more businesses passing on the costs to consumers. ⑶ The labor market appears stable on the surface, but in reality, it is trapped in a stagnant state of "no hiring, no layoffs, no departures," with the turnover rate falling to extremely low levels, which masks deep-seated structural problems. ⑷ Significant divergence has emerged within the economy: high-income groups continue to consume and maintain confidence, while middle- and low-income consumers have reduced spending, and wage growth for low-income earners has stagnated faster, while the housing market remains sluggish. ⑸ Investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure is one of the few bright spots, partially offsetting the weakness in other areas. However, if tariffs continue to erode profits, or if AI investment slows down, the current fragile balance could be broken, slid the economy in a direction predicted by pessimism.
