January 9th Financial Breakfast: Gold prices hold steady at high levels, awaiting non-farm payroll guidance; supply concerns boost oil prices, which surge by over 3%.
2026-01-09 07:21:18
On Friday (January 9th, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4475 per ounce. Gold prices held steady on Thursday as investors awaited US non-farm payroll data to gauge the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy. Meanwhile, the start of the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual adjustment this week is expected to put pressure on gold prices in the short term. US crude oil was trading around $58.40 per barrel. Driven by supply-side factors, oil prices rebounded sharply on Thursday, rising over 3% to close at a two-week high.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.55%, the S&P 500 up slightly by 0.01%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.44%. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 22, still above its five-year average.
Defense stocks rebounded after falling in the previous session, boosted by President Trump's proposal to expand the military budget to $1.5 trillion, with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman among those rising significantly. Technology stocks, however, generally declined, with Nvidia, Broadcom, and Microsoft among those falling. The S&P 500 Technology Index fell 1.5%, pressured by artificial intelligence-related stocks. Alphabet shares rose, and its market capitalization surpassed Apple's for the first time since 2019.
On the economic data front, initial jobless claims rose less than expected last week, and the market is focused on the December non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday. In addition, Piper Sandler upgraded Ford Motor's rating, driving its stock price up 4.7%.
Gold prices held steady on Thursday as investors awaited U.S. nonfarm payroll data to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Spot gold was unchanged at $4,452.64 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures edged lower. The start of the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual adjustment this week is expected to put downward pressure on gold prices in the short term.
Markets are focused on Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll data, with market surveys predicting 60,000 new jobs added in December. On the data front, initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose modestly last week, while previously released job openings and private sector employment data both indicated a cooling labor market.
The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, and a low-interest-rate environment typically benefits gold. Furthermore, HSBC predicts that geopolitical risks and rising fiscal debt will push gold prices to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026. In other precious metals, spot silver, platinum, and palladium prices all declined.
Oil prices rebounded sharply on Thursday after two consecutive days of declines, rising more than 3% to close at a two-week high. Brent crude settled at $61.99 a barrel, while U.S. crude settled at $57.76.
The rise was primarily driven by several supply-side factors. The market assessed developments in Venezuela following the announcement of a $2 billion oil deal by the United States, with representatives from US and European oil companies preparing to visit the country next week; meanwhile, the US seized two oil tankers linked to Venezuela.
In addition, the attack on an oil tanker bound for Russia in the Black Sea and Iraq's nationalization of the West Qurna 2 oil field to circumvent US sanctions have exacerbated market concerns about supplies from Russia, Iraq, and Iran.
The dollar rose against the euro and the Swiss franc on Thursday, with the dollar index hitting a near one-month high. Investors are awaiting Friday's key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report to assess labor market conditions and the interest rate outlook.
Data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose slightly last week, but the labor market as a whole remains resilient.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice this year, but uncertainty remains regarding its policy path. Furthermore, Trump's proposed $1.5 trillion military budget has raised concerns about rising US debt. The euro was pressured by weak inflation data and Trump's comments on Greenland. The US dollar rose against the Swiss franc, while the Australian dollar fell against the US dollar.
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March is 40.9%, up from 44.6% the previous day.
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 13.8%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 86.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 36.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 59.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 4.3%.
CME Group raises margin requirements for precious metals futures for the third time recently.
The CME Group issued a notice on January 8th (local time) raising margin requirements for precious metals contracts, marking its third such notice in nearly a month. The notice stated that margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts will be increased across the board after the market closes on January 9th (local time). In addition, margin requirements for most natural gas contracts will be reduced. The CME Group stated that the margin adjustments are based on a review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.
US Treasury Secretary: The US will lift some sanctions against Venezuelan entities.
On August 8th local time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter stated that the United States will lift some sanctions against Venezuelan entities. Regarding future U.S. "management" of Venezuela, Bessenter stated that he hopes to stabilize Venezuela's existing structure. Regarding assets in Venezuela, Bessenter said the U.S. Treasury Department will oversee the sale of Venezuelan assets and, as directed by Secretary of State Rubio, return the proceeds to Venezuela. Bessenter also stated that independent oil companies are interested in investing in Venezuela as soon as possible, while large oil companies may act more cautiously in Venezuela.
The U.S. government plans to send over 100 more immigration enforcement officers to Minnesota.
On January 8th local time, documents revealed that the Trump administration plans to redeploy over 100 U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents and officials from Chicago and New Orleans to Minnesota. This comes after a shooting death of a woman by federal law enforcement officers during an immigration enforcement operation in Minneapolis on January 7th. Furthermore, reports indicate that the Department of Homeland Security plans to suspend operations in Chicago to support immigration enforcement in Minnesota. Documents also show that Border Patrol officials plan to move all non-lethal weapons stored in Chicago to Minnesota. The reinforcement of Border Patrol personnel is expected to continue until the weekend, with a planned return to their respective cities on January 11th. (CCTV News)
Bessant: 2026 tax cuts will provide a "tailwind" for the US economy.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Matt Bessant said on Thursday that an earlier start to the 2026 tax season will allow the benefits of Republican-passed tax cuts to quickly reach Americans, thus providing a tailwind for the U.S. economy. Bessant stated that the Internal Revenue Service will begin accepting tax returns on January 26, one of the earliest tax seasons in a decade. Bessant also called on the Federal Reserve to adopt an “open mind” in formulating monetary policy and to “fulfill its duty” to help stimulate investment.
Trump: "Decision" made regarding the Fed Chair.
President Trump reportedly said he has finalized his nominee for the next Federal Reserve chairman, but did not reveal the specific candidate in a wide-ranging interview. “I’ve already made up my mind,” he said in the interview Wednesday evening. “I haven’t spoken to anyone about it.” When specifically asked about his chief economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, Trump said, “I don’t want to say,” but described Hassett as “certainly one of my favorites.” Whoever Trump ultimately nominates will take over an institution at a critical juncture—the Federal Reserve is currently under immense pressure from the president, who is determined to drastically lower borrowing costs. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term expires next May, has already become a frequent target of Trump’s attacks, foreshadowing a media storm if the next chairman fails to meet the president’s demands.
Report: The Trump administration is considering funding Greenland's annexation by the United States.
Sources revealed that U.S. officials have discussed a proposal to provide each Greenlander with $10,000 to $100,000 in exchange for their support for Greenland's secession from Denmark and consideration of establishing a subordinate relationship with the United States. This plan is part of a series of discussions at the White House, which also covered options such as military means and a Free Association Agreement. Polls show that while a majority of Greenlanders support independence, the vast majority do not want to join the United States, and the specific details and terms of the financial aid remain unclear.
World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs saw record annual inflows in 2025.
A World Gold Council report shows that global gold ETFs saw record annual inflows in 2025, with North America leading the way. Total assets under management in gold ETFs more than doubled in 2025, and holdings also increased significantly, both setting new records. Trading volume in the gold market remained stable in December, with the average daily trading volume for the year reaching a record high of $361 billion.
With government funds running out again, the U.S. House of Representatives passed three appropriations bills.
On January 8th local time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed three government funding bills, taking another step forward in securing funding for the federal government before the January 30th shutdown deadline. The bill passed that day is a package of appropriations, dubbed the "mini-merge bill." This bill will provide funding for the Department of Energy, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Justice, water projects, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and federal research programs, with funding coverage continuing until the end of the fiscal year. The bills are expected to be submitted to the Senate for consideration next week. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the package of appropriations bills could be considered as early as next week.
National Energy Administration: Plans to support 43 projects and 10 cities in carrying out pilot projects to enhance the construction capabilities of new power systems.
To accelerate the construction of a new energy system and build a new power system, the National Energy Administration organized the application and review process for pilot projects for the construction of new power systems. Focusing on cutting-edge directions related to new power systems, the program explored and promoted the application of new technologies and models. Following review by third-party institutions, it is proposed to support 43 projects, including the wind-solar-thermal-storage integrated system-friendly new energy power station project in Huainan City, Anhui Province, and 10 cities, including Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, to carry out pilot projects to enhance their capacity for new power system construction.
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.55%, the S&P 500 up slightly by 0.01%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.44%. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 22, still above its five-year average.
Defense stocks rebounded after falling in the previous session, boosted by President Trump's proposal to expand the military budget to $1.5 trillion, with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman among those rising significantly. Technology stocks, however, generally declined, with Nvidia, Broadcom, and Microsoft among those falling. The S&P 500 Technology Index fell 1.5%, pressured by artificial intelligence-related stocks. Alphabet shares rose, and its market capitalization surpassed Apple's for the first time since 2019.
On the economic data front, initial jobless claims rose less than expected last week, and the market is focused on the December non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday. In addition, Piper Sandler upgraded Ford Motor's rating, driving its stock price up 4.7%.
Gold Market
Gold prices held steady on Thursday as investors awaited U.S. nonfarm payroll data to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Spot gold was unchanged at $4,452.64 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures edged lower. The start of the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual adjustment this week is expected to put downward pressure on gold prices in the short term.
Markets are focused on Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll data, with market surveys predicting 60,000 new jobs added in December. On the data front, initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose modestly last week, while previously released job openings and private sector employment data both indicated a cooling labor market.
The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, and a low-interest-rate environment typically benefits gold. Furthermore, HSBC predicts that geopolitical risks and rising fiscal debt will push gold prices to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026. In other precious metals, spot silver, platinum, and palladium prices all declined.
oil market
Oil prices rebounded sharply on Thursday after two consecutive days of declines, rising more than 3% to close at a two-week high. Brent crude settled at $61.99 a barrel, while U.S. crude settled at $57.76.
The rise was primarily driven by several supply-side factors. The market assessed developments in Venezuela following the announcement of a $2 billion oil deal by the United States, with representatives from US and European oil companies preparing to visit the country next week; meanwhile, the US seized two oil tankers linked to Venezuela.
In addition, the attack on an oil tanker bound for Russia in the Black Sea and Iraq's nationalization of the West Qurna 2 oil field to circumvent US sanctions have exacerbated market concerns about supplies from Russia, Iraq, and Iran.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar rose against the euro and the Swiss franc on Thursday, with the dollar index hitting a near one-month high. Investors are awaiting Friday's key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report to assess labor market conditions and the interest rate outlook.
Data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose slightly last week, but the labor market as a whole remains resilient.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least twice this year, but uncertainty remains regarding its policy path. Furthermore, Trump's proposed $1.5 trillion military budget has raised concerns about rising US debt. The euro was pressured by weak inflation data and Trump's comments on Greenland. The US dollar rose against the Swiss franc, while the Australian dollar fell against the US dollar.
International News
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March is 40.9%, up from 44.6% the previous day.
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 13.8%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 86.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 36.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 59.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 4.3%.
CME Group raises margin requirements for precious metals futures for the third time recently.
The CME Group issued a notice on January 8th (local time) raising margin requirements for precious metals contracts, marking its third such notice in nearly a month. The notice stated that margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts will be increased across the board after the market closes on January 9th (local time). In addition, margin requirements for most natural gas contracts will be reduced. The CME Group stated that the margin adjustments are based on a review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.
US Treasury Secretary: The US will lift some sanctions against Venezuelan entities.
On August 8th local time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter stated that the United States will lift some sanctions against Venezuelan entities. Regarding future U.S. "management" of Venezuela, Bessenter stated that he hopes to stabilize Venezuela's existing structure. Regarding assets in Venezuela, Bessenter said the U.S. Treasury Department will oversee the sale of Venezuelan assets and, as directed by Secretary of State Rubio, return the proceeds to Venezuela. Bessenter also stated that independent oil companies are interested in investing in Venezuela as soon as possible, while large oil companies may act more cautiously in Venezuela.
The U.S. government plans to send over 100 more immigration enforcement officers to Minnesota.
On January 8th local time, documents revealed that the Trump administration plans to redeploy over 100 U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents and officials from Chicago and New Orleans to Minnesota. This comes after a shooting death of a woman by federal law enforcement officers during an immigration enforcement operation in Minneapolis on January 7th. Furthermore, reports indicate that the Department of Homeland Security plans to suspend operations in Chicago to support immigration enforcement in Minnesota. Documents also show that Border Patrol officials plan to move all non-lethal weapons stored in Chicago to Minnesota. The reinforcement of Border Patrol personnel is expected to continue until the weekend, with a planned return to their respective cities on January 11th. (CCTV News)
Bessant: 2026 tax cuts will provide a "tailwind" for the US economy.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Matt Bessant said on Thursday that an earlier start to the 2026 tax season will allow the benefits of Republican-passed tax cuts to quickly reach Americans, thus providing a tailwind for the U.S. economy. Bessant stated that the Internal Revenue Service will begin accepting tax returns on January 26, one of the earliest tax seasons in a decade. Bessant also called on the Federal Reserve to adopt an “open mind” in formulating monetary policy and to “fulfill its duty” to help stimulate investment.
Trump: "Decision" made regarding the Fed Chair.
President Trump reportedly said he has finalized his nominee for the next Federal Reserve chairman, but did not reveal the specific candidate in a wide-ranging interview. “I’ve already made up my mind,” he said in the interview Wednesday evening. “I haven’t spoken to anyone about it.” When specifically asked about his chief economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, Trump said, “I don’t want to say,” but described Hassett as “certainly one of my favorites.” Whoever Trump ultimately nominates will take over an institution at a critical juncture—the Federal Reserve is currently under immense pressure from the president, who is determined to drastically lower borrowing costs. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term expires next May, has already become a frequent target of Trump’s attacks, foreshadowing a media storm if the next chairman fails to meet the president’s demands.
Report: The Trump administration is considering funding Greenland's annexation by the United States.
Sources revealed that U.S. officials have discussed a proposal to provide each Greenlander with $10,000 to $100,000 in exchange for their support for Greenland's secession from Denmark and consideration of establishing a subordinate relationship with the United States. This plan is part of a series of discussions at the White House, which also covered options such as military means and a Free Association Agreement. Polls show that while a majority of Greenlanders support independence, the vast majority do not want to join the United States, and the specific details and terms of the financial aid remain unclear.
World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs saw record annual inflows in 2025.
A World Gold Council report shows that global gold ETFs saw record annual inflows in 2025, with North America leading the way. Total assets under management in gold ETFs more than doubled in 2025, and holdings also increased significantly, both setting new records. Trading volume in the gold market remained stable in December, with the average daily trading volume for the year reaching a record high of $361 billion.
With government funds running out again, the U.S. House of Representatives passed three appropriations bills.
On January 8th local time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed three government funding bills, taking another step forward in securing funding for the federal government before the January 30th shutdown deadline. The bill passed that day is a package of appropriations, dubbed the "mini-merge bill." This bill will provide funding for the Department of Energy, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Justice, water projects, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and federal research programs, with funding coverage continuing until the end of the fiscal year. The bills are expected to be submitted to the Senate for consideration next week. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the package of appropriations bills could be considered as early as next week.
Domestic News
National Energy Administration: Plans to support 43 projects and 10 cities in carrying out pilot projects to enhance the construction capabilities of new power systems.
To accelerate the construction of a new energy system and build a new power system, the National Energy Administration organized the application and review process for pilot projects for the construction of new power systems. Focusing on cutting-edge directions related to new power systems, the program explored and promoted the application of new technologies and models. Following review by third-party institutions, it is proposed to support 43 projects, including the wind-solar-thermal-storage integrated system-friendly new energy power station project in Huainan City, Anhui Province, and 10 cities, including Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, to carry out pilot projects to enhance their capacity for new power system construction.
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