Gold remains range-bound at high levels, awaiting a directional move.
2026-01-09 14:08:28
Gold prices weakened after rebounding from around $4,400 the previous day during Friday's Asian trading session, attracting some profit-taking. The US dollar index continued its upward trend over the past two weeks, reaching a near one-month high, which put significant pressure on dollar-denominated gold.
Nevertheless, the dollar's further upside potential was somewhat limited ahead of the non-farm payroll data release. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to potentially begin a rate-cutting cycle this year, and this dovish policy expectation has, to some extent, buffered the negative impact of a stronger dollar on gold and limited the downside for gold prices.
As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold remains attractive for investment amid rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is considered a key variable determining short-term price movements.
The market expects non-farm payrolls to increase by approximately 60,000 jobs in December, lower than the previous figure of 64,000, and the unemployment rate to potentially fall slightly to 4.5%. This data will directly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy path and provide new directional drivers for the US dollar and gold.
Beyond macroeconomic data risks, geopolitical uncertainty remains a significant factor supporting gold prices. Tensions surrounding the situation in Venezuela, diplomatic frictions in Asia, and expectations of a protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict could all drive safe-haven demand during periods of risk aversion, potentially providing support for gold prices.
Meanwhile, US President Trump's remarks about the US's long-term involvement in Venezuela's energy sector have also exacerbated market concerns about the uncertainty of the global energy and geopolitical landscape.
Overall, gold is still trading near historical highs, and the fundamental environment dictates that the market remains cautious about significant short selling in the absence of clear negative factors.
From a daily chart perspective, gold remains in a medium-term uptrend. The price is holding firmly above the rising 200-day exponential moving average, indicating that the long-term bullish framework remains intact, and the upward slope of this moving average provides significant technical support for any pullback.
In terms of technical indicators, the MACD is still below the zero line, indicating that the short-term adjustment pattern has not yet completely ended, but its green bar momentum continues to converge, and the fast and slow lines show signs of gradually flattening, suggesting that the downward pressure is weakening.
The RSI remains around 56, above the 50 midline, indicating that the overall momentum is still biased towards the bulls, while not entering the overbought zone, leaving room for further price movement.
Looking at key price levels, if gold prices can regain their footing and effectively break through the $4,500 mark, it will help the bulls regain control and open up further upside potential; conversely, if they fall below and confirm a breach of the 200-day moving average, we need to be wary of a wider pullback and a deeper technical correction.
Editor's Note:
In summary, gold is currently in a phase of high-level consolidation and directional decision-making. A stronger US dollar is putting downward pressure on short-term gold prices, but expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and geopolitical risks continue to provide support for the medium-term outlook.
Gold prices are more likely to remain range-bound rather than trend unilaterally before the release of non-farm payroll data.
Nevertheless, the dollar's further upside potential was somewhat limited ahead of the non-farm payroll data release. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to potentially begin a rate-cutting cycle this year, and this dovish policy expectation has, to some extent, buffered the negative impact of a stronger dollar on gold and limited the downside for gold prices.
As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold remains attractive for investment amid rising expectations of interest rate cuts. The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is considered a key variable determining short-term price movements.
The market expects non-farm payrolls to increase by approximately 60,000 jobs in December, lower than the previous figure of 64,000, and the unemployment rate to potentially fall slightly to 4.5%. This data will directly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy path and provide new directional drivers for the US dollar and gold.
Beyond macroeconomic data risks, geopolitical uncertainty remains a significant factor supporting gold prices. Tensions surrounding the situation in Venezuela, diplomatic frictions in Asia, and expectations of a protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict could all drive safe-haven demand during periods of risk aversion, potentially providing support for gold prices.
Meanwhile, US President Trump's remarks about the US's long-term involvement in Venezuela's energy sector have also exacerbated market concerns about the uncertainty of the global energy and geopolitical landscape.
Overall, gold is still trading near historical highs, and the fundamental environment dictates that the market remains cautious about significant short selling in the absence of clear negative factors.
From a daily chart perspective, gold remains in a medium-term uptrend. The price is holding firmly above the rising 200-day exponential moving average, indicating that the long-term bullish framework remains intact, and the upward slope of this moving average provides significant technical support for any pullback.
In terms of technical indicators, the MACD is still below the zero line, indicating that the short-term adjustment pattern has not yet completely ended, but its green bar momentum continues to converge, and the fast and slow lines show signs of gradually flattening, suggesting that the downward pressure is weakening.
The RSI remains around 56, above the 50 midline, indicating that the overall momentum is still biased towards the bulls, while not entering the overbought zone, leaving room for further price movement.
Looking at key price levels, if gold prices can regain their footing and effectively break through the $4,500 mark, it will help the bulls regain control and open up further upside potential; conversely, if they fall below and confirm a breach of the 200-day moving average, we need to be wary of a wider pullback and a deeper technical correction.
Editor's Note:
In summary, gold is currently in a phase of high-level consolidation and directional decision-making. A stronger US dollar is putting downward pressure on short-term gold prices, but expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and geopolitical risks continue to provide support for the medium-term outlook.
Gold prices are more likely to remain range-bound rather than trend unilaterally before the release of non-farm payroll data.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
