January 13th Financial Breakfast: Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding Powell's investigation send gold prices to a record high; concerns about declining Iranian exports push oil prices to a seven-week high.
2026-01-13 07:25:03
On Tuesday (January 13, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was around $4,584 per ounce. Gold prices hit a record high of $4,630.08 per ounce on Tuesday, as uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell drove investors to safe-haven assets. US crude oil was trading around $59.71 per barrel. Oil prices climbed to a seven-week high on Monday as Trump pressured the Iranian leadership, raising concerns about a potential decline in Iranian oil exports.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting record closing highs. Gains in technology stocks and retailer Walmart led the market as investors largely digested news of the Justice Department's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Walmart shares rose 3%, boosting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The retailer is scheduled to be included in the Nasdaq 100 index on January 20, which is expected to attract significant inflows from passive index funds. The consumer staples sector rose 1.4%, with the technology sector also climbing.
The market opened lower this morning due to news of an investigation into Powell. The U.S. Department of Justice's threat to prosecute Powell over his policy statements to Congress regarding building renovation programs has raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence. Powell called the move a "pretext" to try and influence interest rates. President Trump has repeatedly called for significant interest rate cuts since taking office in 2025.
Analysts point out that the market had already priced in the news, and support for Powell from former Federal Reserve officials eased concerns. Investors are focused on the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings season, with technology sector earnings expected to lead growth, and overall S&P 500 earnings projected to increase by 8.8% year-over-year. The earnings season begins Tuesday with results from major banks such as JPMorgan Chase.
Trump's call to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, starting January 20, put pressure on financial stocks. The S&P 500 Financials Index fell 0.8%, with shares of Citigroup, American Express, and Capital One all declining.
Investors are also awaiting Tuesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index report to assess the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The market currently expects at least two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each before the end of the year.
Gold prices broke through $4,600 an ounce on Monday, hitting a record high, while silver prices also reached a new all-time high. Market uncertainty stemmed from the Trump administration's criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, prompting investors to turn to safe-haven assets.
Spot gold rose 2.2% to $4,609.58 an ounce, hitting a high of $4,630.08 during the session. U.S. gold futures closed up 2.5% at $4,614.70 an ounce. Spot silver rose 6.8% to $85.39 an ounce, after hitting a record high of $86.22 during the session.
Analysts point out that the investigation into Powell has exacerbated market uncertainty, and the factors supporting gold prices in the short term are unlikely to change. Furthermore, market expectations that the Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates later this year have also increased demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.
Geopolitical tensions also provided support for gold prices. The Trump administration is considering a response to Iran's crackdown on protests, following the ouster of Venezuelan President Maduro and its offer to acquire Greenland.
In other precious metals, spot platinum rose 3% to $2,342.10 per ounce, while palladium rose 2.5% to $1,861.44.
Oil prices climbed to a seven-week high on Monday, primarily due to market concerns about a potential decline in Iranian oil exports. The country is facing internal protests, and US President Trump has indicated he may take measures, including military action, to pressure the Iranian leadership. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks from Russia and Venezuela also contributed to price volatility.
Brent crude rose 1.94% to settle at $64.20 a barrel, its highest level since November 18 last year. WTI crude rose 1.8% to settle at $59.84 a barrel, a new high since December 5 last year.
While supply risks from Iran are supporting oil prices, the anticipated resumption of oil exports from Venezuela following President Maduro's resignation is limiting price increases. Trump stated last week that Venezuela would transfer up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States, and oil companies are actively arranging tanker shipments.
Furthermore, the market is also focused on the risk of potential supply disruptions from Russia. Attacks in Ukraine targeting Russian energy facilities and the possibility of harsher US sanctions have exacerbated supply concerns. A Goldman Sachs report notes that geopolitical risks will continue to cause oil price volatility, but new supply could lead to a market surplus this year, putting downward pressure on oil prices.
The dollar index fell on Monday, mainly due to the U.S. Department of Justice's threat to bring criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. This move sparked concerns about the Fed's independence and the dollar's long-term prospects, halting the dollar's gains for the new year.
Powell called the Justice Department subpoena he received a "pretext" for the White House to try to influence interest rate policy. The White House denied that Trump instructed an investigation into Powell. Powell's term ends in May, and Trump is considering a successor, expected to choose a more dovish chairman.
Geopolitically, Iran has stated that it maintains open communication channels with the United States, while the Trump administration is considering a response to Iran's crackdown on protests.
The dollar index fell 0.37% to 98.87. The euro rose 0.29% against the dollar, while the Swiss franc performed strongly, causing the dollar to fall 0.54% against the Swiss franc. The dollar rose 0.15% against the yen to 158.12 yen, hitting a one-year high, mainly due to factors such as declining real wages in Japan.
The market's next focus is on the US December Consumer Price Index report, to be released on Tuesday. In addition, the upcoming ruling by the US Supreme Court on the legality of Trump's tariff policies could also influence the dollar's performance.
Trump is expected to interview Federal Reserve Chair candidate Riedel this week.
US President Donald Trump will interview Rick Riddell, chief bond investment manager at BlackRock, on the 15th for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman. Current information indicates that Riddell is one of the final candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman.
Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran is prepared for all possibilities.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated in an interview with Al Jazeera on the 12th that Iran is prepared for all possibilities and hopes the United States will make a "wise choice." He added that Iran is also prepared if the US chooses military means. Araqchi stated that compared to the Israeli attack on Iran in June that triggered the "12-Day War," Iran's military preparations this time are "more comprehensive and extensive."
Hungarian Foreign Minister: If Britain and France send troops to Ukraine, NATO may face direct conflict with Russia.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó stated on the 12th that if Britain and France send troops to Ukraine, it would pose a serious risk of direct conflict between NATO and Russia. As a neighbor of Ukraine, Hungary faces the possibility of being dragged into the war.
EU official: If the US seizes Greenland militarily, NATO will "come to an end".
EU senior defense official Alexis Kubilius said on the 12th that the EU could provide security support to Greenland if Denmark requested it, and warned that if the United States were to seize Greenland militarily, it would mean the "end of NATO." (Xinhua)
The Greenlandic government: Under no circumstances can it accept the US taking over Greenland.
The Greenlandic government issued a statement on the 12th, saying it would not accept a US takeover of Greenland under any circumstances. The statement said Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark and NATO, and its defense should be carried out through NATO. The statement further indicated that Greenland will always be part of the Western defense alliance. All NATO member states, including the United States, share a common interest in Greenland's defense. The Greenlandic government will work with Denmark to promote Greenland's defense within the NATO framework. (Xinhua)
Sanae Takaichi considers dissolving the House of Representatives; Japanese opposition parties discuss prospects for cooperation.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering dissolving the House of Representatives. Sources reveal that Takaichi has instructed the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to expedite the nomination of candidates for the House election. Facing the possibility of dissolving the House, Yoshihiko Noda and Tetsuo Saito have begun collaborative discussions. Takaichi's decision to dissolve the House may prioritize party interests, raising questions about its legitimacy. (CCTV News)
The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has impacted US market confidence.
Recently, reports have surfaced that U.S. federal prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The investigation primarily concerns the renovation project of the Fed's office building, which Powell spearheaded. The initial budget for the renovation project in 2019 was approximately $1.9 billion, but due to a significant increase in building material costs, the budget ballooned to nearly $2.5 billion, drawing criticism for its "luxury renovation." Powell responded with a statement on the 11th, calling the federal prosecutors' allegations against him "pretexts." Some analysts point out that the Trump administration's actions could lead to concerns that U.S. monetary policy is being influenced by political pressure, shaking market confidence in the Fed's policies. If the Fed succumbs to U.S. government pressure and unrealistically pursues low interest rates, monetary policy could lose its role in regulating the economy and weaken the stability of the dollar and the U.S. financial system. (CCTV News)
The Adriatic oil pipeline will resume supplying oil to key refineries in Serbia.
On January 12 local time, Serbian Energy Minister Samir Handanovic announced that the key Pancevo refinery in Serbia would resume crude oil supply via the Adriatic Oil Pipeline Company (JANAF) starting at midnight that day. This marks a significant step forward in the restoration of oil supply after a nearly 100-day disruption. JANAF, a Croatian state-owned energy company, operates a network of transnational oil pipelines connecting Adriatic ports to several Central and Eastern European countries, serving as a crucial channel for Serbia's crude oil imports via the Adriatic Sea. Handanovic stated that the first batch of crude oil would arrive on the morning of January 13 and would continue to be supplied throughout the week. This batch of approximately 85,000 tons of crude oil will be used to restore production at the Pancevo refinery, owned by Petroleum Industries, Serbia's state-owned oil company. She anticipates that after the restoration of crude oil supply and related preparations, the Pancevo refinery will restart production around January 16, with diesel and other products planned to enter the market around January 26 or 27. An additional 35,000–45,000 tons of crude oil are expected to arrive next week to support refinery operations. (CCTV News)
Trump says he will impose a 25% tariff on Iran’s business partners.
US President Donald Trump announced on social media on the afternoon of December 12 that any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff when conducting any business with the United States. Trump stated that this was a "final" decision and would "take effect immediately." Trump did not provide further details on social media. As of press time, the White House had not released any official document on this matter. Due to the long-standing and severe US sanctions against Iran, the two countries have no commercial relations or formal diplomatic ties, making it impossible for the US to effectively exert direct pressure on Iran through tariffs. White House Press Secretary Levitt said earlier that day that, given the current situation with Iran, Trump considers diplomacy the "preferred" option, but if he deems it necessary, he "will not hesitate to use the US military." Previously, several US media outlets reported that Trump had recently received a briefing on a military strike against Iran. (Xinhua)
Haihe Brain-Computer Lab: Developing a fifth-generation space station-based brain-computer interface system in the aerospace field, and completing humanity's first "space brain-computer interface experiment".
Recently, the journal *New Industrialization*, supervised by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and sponsored by the China Electronics and Information Industry Development Research Institute, published an article by Ming Dong, director of the Haihe Laboratory for Brain-Computer Interaction and Human-Computer Integration and vice president of Tianjin University, entitled "Breaking Through the Technology Chain and Completing the Talent Chain to Promote the Transformation and Application of Brain-Computer Interface Scientific and Technological Achievements." Ming Dong mentioned that the Haihe Laboratory team at Tianjin University focuses on the field of non-invasive brain-computer interfaces, continuously promoting technological innovation and industrialization. Currently, it has formed a complete chain layout, from high-performance devices, chips, algorithms, and platforms to system integration and key foundations and applications. In the field of clinical application, Tianjin University's "Shengong" brain-computer interaction innovative medical device series products have been launched successively, gradually covering clinical application scenarios such as stroke rehabilitation, spinal cord injury motor assistance, depression treatment, and hearing impairment treatment. In the aerospace field, the design and development of a fifth-generation space station on-orbit brain-computer interface system completed the first-ever human "space brain-computer interface experiment," and subsequently achieved important applications in multiple manned spaceflight missions. This system serves for the precise monitoring of astronauts' functional and emotional states, enhancing their performance and providing key technological support for the next-generation medical and human factors support systems of my country's manned space program. (CCTV)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting record closing highs. Gains in technology stocks and retailer Walmart led the market as investors largely digested news of the Justice Department's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Walmart shares rose 3%, boosting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The retailer is scheduled to be included in the Nasdaq 100 index on January 20, which is expected to attract significant inflows from passive index funds. The consumer staples sector rose 1.4%, with the technology sector also climbing.
The market opened lower this morning due to news of an investigation into Powell. The U.S. Department of Justice's threat to prosecute Powell over his policy statements to Congress regarding building renovation programs has raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence. Powell called the move a "pretext" to try and influence interest rates. President Trump has repeatedly called for significant interest rate cuts since taking office in 2025.
Analysts point out that the market had already priced in the news, and support for Powell from former Federal Reserve officials eased concerns. Investors are focused on the upcoming fourth-quarter earnings season, with technology sector earnings expected to lead growth, and overall S&P 500 earnings projected to increase by 8.8% year-over-year. The earnings season begins Tuesday with results from major banks such as JPMorgan Chase.
Trump's call to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, starting January 20, put pressure on financial stocks. The S&P 500 Financials Index fell 0.8%, with shares of Citigroup, American Express, and Capital One all declining.
Investors are also awaiting Tuesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index report to assess the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The market currently expects at least two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each before the end of the year.
Gold Market
Gold prices broke through $4,600 an ounce on Monday, hitting a record high, while silver prices also reached a new all-time high. Market uncertainty stemmed from the Trump administration's criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, prompting investors to turn to safe-haven assets.
Spot gold rose 2.2% to $4,609.58 an ounce, hitting a high of $4,630.08 during the session. U.S. gold futures closed up 2.5% at $4,614.70 an ounce. Spot silver rose 6.8% to $85.39 an ounce, after hitting a record high of $86.22 during the session.
Analysts point out that the investigation into Powell has exacerbated market uncertainty, and the factors supporting gold prices in the short term are unlikely to change. Furthermore, market expectations that the Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates later this year have also increased demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.
Geopolitical tensions also provided support for gold prices. The Trump administration is considering a response to Iran's crackdown on protests, following the ouster of Venezuelan President Maduro and its offer to acquire Greenland.
In other precious metals, spot platinum rose 3% to $2,342.10 per ounce, while palladium rose 2.5% to $1,861.44.
oil market
Oil prices climbed to a seven-week high on Monday, primarily due to market concerns about a potential decline in Iranian oil exports. The country is facing internal protests, and US President Trump has indicated he may take measures, including military action, to pressure the Iranian leadership. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks from Russia and Venezuela also contributed to price volatility.
Brent crude rose 1.94% to settle at $64.20 a barrel, its highest level since November 18 last year. WTI crude rose 1.8% to settle at $59.84 a barrel, a new high since December 5 last year.
While supply risks from Iran are supporting oil prices, the anticipated resumption of oil exports from Venezuela following President Maduro's resignation is limiting price increases. Trump stated last week that Venezuela would transfer up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States, and oil companies are actively arranging tanker shipments.
Furthermore, the market is also focused on the risk of potential supply disruptions from Russia. Attacks in Ukraine targeting Russian energy facilities and the possibility of harsher US sanctions have exacerbated supply concerns. A Goldman Sachs report notes that geopolitical risks will continue to cause oil price volatility, but new supply could lead to a market surplus this year, putting downward pressure on oil prices.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar index fell on Monday, mainly due to the U.S. Department of Justice's threat to bring criminal charges against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. This move sparked concerns about the Fed's independence and the dollar's long-term prospects, halting the dollar's gains for the new year.
Powell called the Justice Department subpoena he received a "pretext" for the White House to try to influence interest rate policy. The White House denied that Trump instructed an investigation into Powell. Powell's term ends in May, and Trump is considering a successor, expected to choose a more dovish chairman.
Geopolitically, Iran has stated that it maintains open communication channels with the United States, while the Trump administration is considering a response to Iran's crackdown on protests.
The dollar index fell 0.37% to 98.87. The euro rose 0.29% against the dollar, while the Swiss franc performed strongly, causing the dollar to fall 0.54% against the Swiss franc. The dollar rose 0.15% against the yen to 158.12 yen, hitting a one-year high, mainly due to factors such as declining real wages in Japan.
The market's next focus is on the US December Consumer Price Index report, to be released on Tuesday. In addition, the upcoming ruling by the US Supreme Court on the legality of Trump's tariff policies could also influence the dollar's performance.
International News
Trump is expected to interview Federal Reserve Chair candidate Riedel this week.
US President Donald Trump will interview Rick Riddell, chief bond investment manager at BlackRock, on the 15th for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman. Current information indicates that Riddell is one of the final candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman.
Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran is prepared for all possibilities.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated in an interview with Al Jazeera on the 12th that Iran is prepared for all possibilities and hopes the United States will make a "wise choice." He added that Iran is also prepared if the US chooses military means. Araqchi stated that compared to the Israeli attack on Iran in June that triggered the "12-Day War," Iran's military preparations this time are "more comprehensive and extensive."
Hungarian Foreign Minister: If Britain and France send troops to Ukraine, NATO may face direct conflict with Russia.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó stated on the 12th that if Britain and France send troops to Ukraine, it would pose a serious risk of direct conflict between NATO and Russia. As a neighbor of Ukraine, Hungary faces the possibility of being dragged into the war.
EU official: If the US seizes Greenland militarily, NATO will "come to an end".
EU senior defense official Alexis Kubilius said on the 12th that the EU could provide security support to Greenland if Denmark requested it, and warned that if the United States were to seize Greenland militarily, it would mean the "end of NATO." (Xinhua)
The Greenlandic government: Under no circumstances can it accept the US taking over Greenland.
The Greenlandic government issued a statement on the 12th, saying it would not accept a US takeover of Greenland under any circumstances. The statement said Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark and NATO, and its defense should be carried out through NATO. The statement further indicated that Greenland will always be part of the Western defense alliance. All NATO member states, including the United States, share a common interest in Greenland's defense. The Greenlandic government will work with Denmark to promote Greenland's defense within the NATO framework. (Xinhua)
Sanae Takaichi considers dissolving the House of Representatives; Japanese opposition parties discuss prospects for cooperation.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering dissolving the House of Representatives. Sources reveal that Takaichi has instructed the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to expedite the nomination of candidates for the House election. Facing the possibility of dissolving the House, Yoshihiko Noda and Tetsuo Saito have begun collaborative discussions. Takaichi's decision to dissolve the House may prioritize party interests, raising questions about its legitimacy. (CCTV News)
The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has impacted US market confidence.
Recently, reports have surfaced that U.S. federal prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The investigation primarily concerns the renovation project of the Fed's office building, which Powell spearheaded. The initial budget for the renovation project in 2019 was approximately $1.9 billion, but due to a significant increase in building material costs, the budget ballooned to nearly $2.5 billion, drawing criticism for its "luxury renovation." Powell responded with a statement on the 11th, calling the federal prosecutors' allegations against him "pretexts." Some analysts point out that the Trump administration's actions could lead to concerns that U.S. monetary policy is being influenced by political pressure, shaking market confidence in the Fed's policies. If the Fed succumbs to U.S. government pressure and unrealistically pursues low interest rates, monetary policy could lose its role in regulating the economy and weaken the stability of the dollar and the U.S. financial system. (CCTV News)
The Adriatic oil pipeline will resume supplying oil to key refineries in Serbia.
On January 12 local time, Serbian Energy Minister Samir Handanovic announced that the key Pancevo refinery in Serbia would resume crude oil supply via the Adriatic Oil Pipeline Company (JANAF) starting at midnight that day. This marks a significant step forward in the restoration of oil supply after a nearly 100-day disruption. JANAF, a Croatian state-owned energy company, operates a network of transnational oil pipelines connecting Adriatic ports to several Central and Eastern European countries, serving as a crucial channel for Serbia's crude oil imports via the Adriatic Sea. Handanovic stated that the first batch of crude oil would arrive on the morning of January 13 and would continue to be supplied throughout the week. This batch of approximately 85,000 tons of crude oil will be used to restore production at the Pancevo refinery, owned by Petroleum Industries, Serbia's state-owned oil company. She anticipates that after the restoration of crude oil supply and related preparations, the Pancevo refinery will restart production around January 16, with diesel and other products planned to enter the market around January 26 or 27. An additional 35,000–45,000 tons of crude oil are expected to arrive next week to support refinery operations. (CCTV News)
Trump says he will impose a 25% tariff on Iran’s business partners.
US President Donald Trump announced on social media on the afternoon of December 12 that any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff when conducting any business with the United States. Trump stated that this was a "final" decision and would "take effect immediately." Trump did not provide further details on social media. As of press time, the White House had not released any official document on this matter. Due to the long-standing and severe US sanctions against Iran, the two countries have no commercial relations or formal diplomatic ties, making it impossible for the US to effectively exert direct pressure on Iran through tariffs. White House Press Secretary Levitt said earlier that day that, given the current situation with Iran, Trump considers diplomacy the "preferred" option, but if he deems it necessary, he "will not hesitate to use the US military." Previously, several US media outlets reported that Trump had recently received a briefing on a military strike against Iran. (Xinhua)
Domestic News
Haihe Brain-Computer Lab: Developing a fifth-generation space station-based brain-computer interface system in the aerospace field, and completing humanity's first "space brain-computer interface experiment".
Recently, the journal *New Industrialization*, supervised by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and sponsored by the China Electronics and Information Industry Development Research Institute, published an article by Ming Dong, director of the Haihe Laboratory for Brain-Computer Interaction and Human-Computer Integration and vice president of Tianjin University, entitled "Breaking Through the Technology Chain and Completing the Talent Chain to Promote the Transformation and Application of Brain-Computer Interface Scientific and Technological Achievements." Ming Dong mentioned that the Haihe Laboratory team at Tianjin University focuses on the field of non-invasive brain-computer interfaces, continuously promoting technological innovation and industrialization. Currently, it has formed a complete chain layout, from high-performance devices, chips, algorithms, and platforms to system integration and key foundations and applications. In the field of clinical application, Tianjin University's "Shengong" brain-computer interaction innovative medical device series products have been launched successively, gradually covering clinical application scenarios such as stroke rehabilitation, spinal cord injury motor assistance, depression treatment, and hearing impairment treatment. In the aerospace field, the design and development of a fifth-generation space station on-orbit brain-computer interface system completed the first-ever human "space brain-computer interface experiment," and subsequently achieved important applications in multiple manned spaceflight missions. This system serves for the precise monitoring of astronauts' functional and emotional states, enhancing their performance and providing key technological support for the next-generation medical and human factors support systems of my country's manned space program. (CCTV)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
