Gold prices rose to record highs before retreating after mixed US CPI data.
2026-01-14 00:36:57
On Tuesday (January 13), during the US trading session, spot gold prices climbed to a record high of $4,634.25 per ounce before paring gains. Spot gold traded at approximately $4,602.59 per ounce, up 0.12%.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) was largely in line with expectations, while core inflation was lower than expected, making the Federal Reserve still inclined to further ease monetary policy.
Precious metals continue to be supported by stable safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties that keep investors cautious. The ongoing criminal investigation surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to unsettle markets, reigniting concerns about central bank independence.
Meanwhile, new geopolitical developments dampened risk sentiment after US President Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. This followed the US military action against President Maduro in Venezuela and Trump's renewed comments on US strategic interests in Greenland.
Market drivers: Justice Department investigation into Powell triggers market tensions; Federal Reserve independence becomes a focal point.
The U.S. Department of Justice has issued a grand jury subpoena as part of a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, related to his testimony before the Senate regarding the Fed's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project. Powell stated that the move was politically motivated and emphasized that the Fed will continue to formulate policy based on economic conditions, not political pressure.
Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have intensified as President Trump is expected to announce his potential successor to Jerome Powell later this month, whose term as Fed chair ends in May 2026. Markets widely anticipate Trump will nominate a candidate more aligned with his policy views, exacerbating uncertainty about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.
Regarding monetary policy, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates about twice this year. However, last week's U.S. jobs report showed that the labor market performed better than many had feared, which weakened expectations for aggressive rate cuts and reinforced the view that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting.
Market attention is also focused on the U.S. Supreme Court, which will hold an opinion day on Wednesday to discuss the legality of Trump-era tariffs. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is scheduled to hold a hearing on January 21 regarding Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from her post.
Major investment banks are generally optimistic about the outlook for gold. Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS predict that gold prices will remain in the $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce range in 2026, against the backdrop of expectations of Fed rate cuts, rising debt concerns, continued buying by central banks and ETFs, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Technical Analysis: Despite being in overbought territory, the strong trend continues.
(4-hour chart of spot gold source: EasyForex)
On the 4-hour chart, the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) has crossed above the 50-period SMA, and both are sloping upwards, reinforcing the current upward trend.
Price action remains easily above key moving averages, with the 21-period SMA at around $4,534.94 forming the first layer of dynamic support, followed by the 50-period SMA at around $4,468.91.
Momentum indicators remain positive. The MACD remains above the signal line in positive territory, while the slightly widening histogram suggests strong bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is at 67.3, having turned from overbought to falling, suggesting the upward momentum may pause or consolidate in the short term. However, any pullback is likely to be seen as a correction rather than a trend reversal, and the overall technical picture remains bullish.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) was largely in line with expectations, while core inflation was lower than expected, making the Federal Reserve still inclined to further ease monetary policy.
Precious metals continue to be supported by stable safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties that keep investors cautious. The ongoing criminal investigation surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to unsettle markets, reigniting concerns about central bank independence.
Meanwhile, new geopolitical developments dampened risk sentiment after US President Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. This followed the US military action against President Maduro in Venezuela and Trump's renewed comments on US strategic interests in Greenland.
Market drivers: Justice Department investigation into Powell triggers market tensions; Federal Reserve independence becomes a focal point.
The U.S. Department of Justice has issued a grand jury subpoena as part of a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, related to his testimony before the Senate regarding the Fed's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project. Powell stated that the move was politically motivated and emphasized that the Fed will continue to formulate policy based on economic conditions, not political pressure.
Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have intensified as President Trump is expected to announce his potential successor to Jerome Powell later this month, whose term as Fed chair ends in May 2026. Markets widely anticipate Trump will nominate a candidate more aligned with his policy views, exacerbating uncertainty about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy.
Regarding monetary policy, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates about twice this year. However, last week's U.S. jobs report showed that the labor market performed better than many had feared, which weakened expectations for aggressive rate cuts and reinforced the view that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting.
Market attention is also focused on the U.S. Supreme Court, which will hold an opinion day on Wednesday to discuss the legality of Trump-era tariffs. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is scheduled to hold a hearing on January 21 regarding Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from her post.
Major investment banks are generally optimistic about the outlook for gold. Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS predict that gold prices will remain in the $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce range in 2026, against the backdrop of expectations of Fed rate cuts, rising debt concerns, continued buying by central banks and ETFs, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Technical Analysis: Despite being in overbought territory, the strong trend continues.
(4-hour chart of spot gold source: EasyForex)
On the 4-hour chart, the 21-period simple moving average (SMA) has crossed above the 50-period SMA, and both are sloping upwards, reinforcing the current upward trend.
Price action remains easily above key moving averages, with the 21-period SMA at around $4,534.94 forming the first layer of dynamic support, followed by the 50-period SMA at around $4,468.91.
Momentum indicators remain positive. The MACD remains above the signal line in positive territory, while the slightly widening histogram suggests strong bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is at 67.3, having turned from overbought to falling, suggesting the upward momentum may pause or consolidate in the short term. However, any pullback is likely to be seen as a correction rather than a trend reversal, and the overall technical picture remains bullish.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
