On Tuesday (January 13), during the US trading session, COMEX gold (generally priced a dozen dollars higher than spot gold) was trading unchanged from the previous session, after reaching a record high of $4,644 per ounce at the open. COMEX gold futures rose sharply, reaching a record high of $89.215 per ounce during the session. Risk aversion remains high in the market due to the current active international political environment. February gold futures fell $2.50 to $4,612.20 during the session. March silver futures rose $2.764 to $87.855.



Data released that day showed that the U.S. annual inflation rate remained at 2.7% in December, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated a decline in energy prices, primarily due to lower gasoline prices, while food prices remained high. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.3%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, the core CPI remained at 2.6%, the lowest level since March 2021.

The CME Group will change its margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures due to sharp price increases and high trading volatility. In a notice, the group stated that the new method will set margins based on a so-called "notional amount." Previously, margins were based on dollar amounts. This change took effect after Tuesday's close and is a result of "normal reviews of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage." An analyst from the group stated, "A percentage-based approach intuitively determines the required margin, meaning less frequent adjustments are needed." However, if volatility exceeds historical levels or unforeseen circumstances arise, "they may still increase this percentage."

Markets are closely watching the escalating unrest in Iran. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made rather negative comments at a time when politicians and investors are weighing the possibility of the Islamic Republic's collapse and its implications for geopolitical and energy markets. This situation is driving safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

Current major indicators in the international market show a rise in the US dollar index. Crude oil prices continue to climb, reaching a three-month high, and are currently trading at approximately $61.25 per barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note is currently around 4.2%.


(COMEX Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678)

From a technical perspective, gold bulls' next upside target in February is to break through the strong resistance level of $4,750 and close above it. Bears' next short-term downside target is to break below the strong technical support level of $4,400. The first resistance level is seen at today's all-time high of $4,644, followed by $4,675. The first support level is seen at today's low of $4,582.80, followed by $4,550.


(COMEX silver daily chart source: FX678)

Silver futures bulls have regained dominance in March, with their next upside target being a close above the solid technical resistance level of $90.00. Bears' next downside target is a close below the solid support level of $75.00. The first resistance level is seen at today's all-time high of $89.215, followed by $90.00. The next support level is seen at the overnight low of $83.355, then $82.00.

Note: The gold market operates primarily through two pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, where prices are based on immediate purchase and delivery. The second is the futures market, where prices are based on delivery at a future date. Due to year-end market liquidity arrangements, the December gold futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is currently the most actively traded contract.