January 15th Financial Breakfast: The market is in a structural bull market, with gold and silver continuing to hit new historical highs, driven by geopolitical factors, and oil prices are experiencing increased volatility.
2026-01-15 07:29:13
On Thursday (January 15, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,609 per ounce. Spot gold hit a record high of $4,642.77 per ounce on Wednesday, while spot silver also rose, reaching a record high of $93.67. The market is in a structural bull market, with multiple factors driving this round of gains. US crude oil was trading around $60.50 per barrel. Short-term geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, but fundamental risks have not been eliminated, leading to increased volatility in oil prices.
U.S. stocks closed lower across the board on Wednesday. Technology and bank stocks were the main drags down as investor sentiment shifted towards defensive sectors. The Nasdaq Composite Index led the decline, falling 1.00%; the S&P 500 Index fell 0.53%; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.09%. Trading was active, with total volume significantly higher than recent daily averages.
Bank stocks were generally under pressure, with the S&P 500 Banks Index closing lower. Wells Fargo shares plunged 4.6% after missing fourth-quarter profit expectations. Citigroup and Bank of America shares also declined despite better-than-expected earnings. Continued concerns about President Trump's proposed credit card interest rate cap, coupled with warnings from JPMorgan executives that it could squeeze consumer spending and damage financial industry profits, exacerbated the sector's pessimism.
The technology sector also weakened, with the S&P 500 technology index falling. Some individual stocks were impacted by negative news, with companies like Broadcom and Fortinet experiencing declines. Market strategists noted that investors are seeking to shift from high-priced large-cap technology stocks to value stocks and more defensive targets.
In contrast, defensive sectors performed strongly, with the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index rising. Small-cap stocks were strong, with the Russell 2000 index hitting a record closing high and the S&P 500 Industrials Index also setting a new closing record. Energy stocks initially rose due to concerns about Iranian supply, but subsequently retreated as oil prices fell.
On the macroeconomic front, investors digested the expected November producer price index and stronger-than-expected retail sales data. Market expectations for the interest rate outlook remained stable, with widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting and predicting at least two rate cuts before the end of the year.
Precious metals markets continued their strong rally on Wednesday. Spot gold prices hit a record high of $4,642.77 per ounce, while spot silver also rose, reaching a record high of $93.67. Analysts pointed out that the market is in a structural bull market, with multiple factors driving this round of gains.
Geopolitical tensions continue to provide support. Iran has warned that it will strike US military bases in neighboring countries if the US intervenes in its domestic protests. Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland will meet with their US counterparts to discuss President Trump's demand for control over Greenland.
Macroeconomic data and expectations for Federal Reserve policy constitute another major driver. Despite strong US retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in November, combined with weaker-than-expected core CPI data, traders maintain their expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year. Furthermore, lingering concerns about the Fed's independence, following the Trump administration's threat to sue Chairman Powell, prompted a collective outcry from central bank governors worldwide.
Market sentiment was generally optimistic. Alex Ebcalian, Chief Operating Officer of Allegiance Gold, stated that market volatility may increase, but the upward trend in precious metals is expected to continue in the first quarter. He specifically noted that the short-term target price for silver is between $100 and $144. Other precious metals also generally rose, with platinum and palladium recording gains of 2.4% and 1.3%, respectively.
Oil prices experienced a rollercoaster ride on Wednesday. Prices initially surged in early trading due to concerns about supply disruptions from Iran, but quickly reversed course and fell after US President Trump stated in the afternoon that "the killings in Iran's crackdown on unrest are waning." Brent crude closed down 1.41% at $64.55 per barrel, while WTI crude closed down 1.57% at $60.19 per barrel.
The dramatic market reversal stemmed from a sudden easing of geopolitical tensions. Trump's remarks eased market concerns about potential disruptions to Iranian supplies. Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, noted, "The market now believes that an attack on Iran is unlikely, hence the rapid drop in oil prices."
While short-term tensions have eased somewhat, the fundamental risks remain. Iran has warned that it will strike US bases in the Middle East if the US attacks. A US official revealed on the same day that, given the escalating regional tensions, the US is withdrawing some personnel from key bases as a precaution.
Fundamental data also put pressure on oil prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.4 million barrels last week, while the market expected a decrease; gasoline inventories surged by 9 million barrels, far exceeding expectations, reflecting weak demand or oversupply.
Citigroup analysts pointed out that the Iranian protests primarily affect oil prices by increasing geopolitical risk premiums, rather than actual supply. Since the protests have not spread to major oil-producing regions, their direct impact on physical supply is limited. Meanwhile, optimistic comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari regarding weakening inflation have also influenced market expectations for the economy and energy demand to some extent.
The yen rebounded against the dollar on Wednesday, recovering from an intraday low of 159.45 (its lowest level since July 2024) to ultimately rise 0.43% to close at 158.46 yen per dollar. This rebound was largely driven by verbal warnings of intervention from Japanese officials.
The market had been selling the yen due to concerns that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi might call an early election and implement more expansionary fiscal and monetary policies (the "high-market trade" logic). However, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated his warning that day, stating that the authorities would "take appropriate action against excessive exchange rate volatility, without ruling out any options," which provided support for the yen.
Meanwhile, the US dollar remained generally stable. Rising market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months provided fundamental support for the dollar. Last Friday's lower-than-expected unemployment data further solidified this expectation. Morgan Stanley has postponed its first rate cut expectation from January to June.
Geopolitical tensions (such as Iran's warning of a possible strike on US military bases) and persistent market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have created a complex backdrop for the current foreign exchange market. Analysts believe that although warnings of intervention by Japanese authorities have increased two-way risks, a break above the key psychological level of 160 for the USD/JPY exchange rate could still trigger new market movements.
Several European countries will send military personnel to Greenland.
The German Ministry of Defense announced on the evening of January 14th, local time, that at Denmark's request, Germany will send 13 soldiers to Greenland on January 15th as part of a joint mission with other European countries. The Ministry stated that the mission aims to explore possible military measures to strengthen security in the region. That same day, the French military announced that France would participate in a military mission in Greenland with several European partners to support Denmark in maintaining local security. Earlier that day, Sweden and Norway also announced they would send military personnel to Greenland.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Fully prepared to respond to enemy actions
On March 14 local time, Mohammad Pakpour, commander-in-chief of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), issued a statement saying that the IRGC, as a "powerful people's armed force," is fully prepared to resolutely respond to any miscalculations by the enemy and by internal and external mercenary forces of the "Islamic State." Mohammad Pakpour stated that the crimes committed by mercenaries of US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will never be forgotten, and they will be punished "at the appropriate time." (CCTV News)
Federal Reserve Governor Milan included government deregulation in his arguments for cutting interest rates.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan said the Trump administration's deregulation agenda provides additional justification for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. Speaking at an event in Athens on Wednesday, Milan said, "I believe the massive deregulation efforts currently underway in the U.S. will significantly boost competition, productivity, and potential growth rates, leading to faster economic growth without pushing up inflationary pressures." Milan said he expects 30% of the regulatory restrictions in the Codex Alimentarius to be eliminated by 2030, based on the Trump administration's pace of deregulation until 2025. Milan stated, "Overall, I believe the massive deregulation already implemented by 2025 will continue for at least the next three years, which will have a significant positive impact on productivity, thus putting downward pressure on prices. The net effect is that this supports a more accommodative monetary policy stance."
The French government survived a vote of no confidence in parliament.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the French National Assembly held a vote on two motions of no confidence against the government proposed by the opposition parties on the 14th. Both motions failed to pass, and the government led by Prime Minister Le Corny will continue to perform its duties as normal.
Report: The EU will allow member states to postpone the shutdown of their copper wire networks until 2035.
According to sources, the European Commission will allow member states to postpone the closure of traditional copper wire telecommunications networks until 2035 (the industry initially discussed and anticipated 2030), aiming to give the industry more time to transition to faster fiber optic networks. This move will grant national governments discretion to set their own copper wire retirement timelines based on local market conditions, network readiness, and the impact on consumers. This adjustment appears in the latest draft of the Digital Networks Act, a comprehensive update to EU telecommunications regulations, with any final rules requiring approval from EU legislators and member states.
The US threatens to cut off Venezuela's oil supplies to Cuba.
On January 11, US President Trump threatened Cuba with "zero oil and zero capital" inflows. Against this backdrop, Cuba, an island nation already facing widespread power outages and resource shortages, faces an even more uncertain future, forcing Cubans to prepare for the impending shock. It is reported that Cuba's current domestic crude oil production is approximately 40,000 barrels per day, meeting only about one-third of its domestic consumption needs. Limited by refining facilities, Cuba's domestically produced crude oil cannot be further processed and is mainly used directly for power generation in thermal power plants. According to shipping data and internal documents from Venezuela's state-owned oil company, PDVSA, Venezuela, as Cuba's largest oil supplier, has not shipped crude oil or fuel to Cuba for about a month. Mexican President Sinbaum recently stated that, due to the changing situation, Mexico has become an important oil supplier for Cuba. (CCTV International News)
Hamas: The start of the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire is an "important and positive development".
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qasim issued a statement on the 14th, saying that the US announcement that day of the launch of the second phase of the "20-point plan" to end the Gaza conflict was an "important and positive development." The statement called on the US government to urge Israel to fulfill its obligations under the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and to advance the ceasefire to the second phase. The statement indicated that Hamas is prepared to participate in intra-Palestinian discussions on the issue of "weapons for resistance," but the immediate priority is to launch a genuine humanitarian aid operation to save the cities in the Gaza Strip.
US media: The United States will suspend all visa processing for 75 countries starting January 21.
According to Fox News, the U.S. State Department will suspend all visa processing for 75 countries to strengthen scrutiny of applicants deemed potentially "public charge." An internal State Department memo indicates that consular officials will deny visa applications under current law while the department reassesses its visa vetting and background check procedures. Affected countries include Somalia, Russia, Afghanistan, Brazil, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Nigeria, Thailand, and Yemen. The suspension will begin on January 21 and will continue indefinitely until the State Department completes its reassessment of the visa processing procedures.
General Administration of Customs: my country will become a net exporter of industrial robots by 2025.
Wang Jun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that exports of high-tech products are projected to increase by 13.2% year-on-year in 2025, contributing 2.4 percentage points to my country's overall export growth. Specifically, exports of specialized equipment, high-end machine tools, and industrial robots increased by 20.6%, 21.5%, and 48.7%, respectively. Notably, exports of industrial robots exceeded imports last year, making my country a net exporter of industrial robots.
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks closed lower across the board on Wednesday. Technology and bank stocks were the main drags down as investor sentiment shifted towards defensive sectors. The Nasdaq Composite Index led the decline, falling 1.00%; the S&P 500 Index fell 0.53%; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.09%. Trading was active, with total volume significantly higher than recent daily averages.
Bank stocks were generally under pressure, with the S&P 500 Banks Index closing lower. Wells Fargo shares plunged 4.6% after missing fourth-quarter profit expectations. Citigroup and Bank of America shares also declined despite better-than-expected earnings. Continued concerns about President Trump's proposed credit card interest rate cap, coupled with warnings from JPMorgan executives that it could squeeze consumer spending and damage financial industry profits, exacerbated the sector's pessimism.
The technology sector also weakened, with the S&P 500 technology index falling. Some individual stocks were impacted by negative news, with companies like Broadcom and Fortinet experiencing declines. Market strategists noted that investors are seeking to shift from high-priced large-cap technology stocks to value stocks and more defensive targets.
In contrast, defensive sectors performed strongly, with the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index rising. Small-cap stocks were strong, with the Russell 2000 index hitting a record closing high and the S&P 500 Industrials Index also setting a new closing record. Energy stocks initially rose due to concerns about Iranian supply, but subsequently retreated as oil prices fell.
On the macroeconomic front, investors digested the expected November producer price index and stronger-than-expected retail sales data. Market expectations for the interest rate outlook remained stable, with widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting and predicting at least two rate cuts before the end of the year.
Gold Market
Precious metals markets continued their strong rally on Wednesday. Spot gold prices hit a record high of $4,642.77 per ounce, while spot silver also rose, reaching a record high of $93.67. Analysts pointed out that the market is in a structural bull market, with multiple factors driving this round of gains.
Geopolitical tensions continue to provide support. Iran has warned that it will strike US military bases in neighboring countries if the US intervenes in its domestic protests. Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland will meet with their US counterparts to discuss President Trump's demand for control over Greenland.
Macroeconomic data and expectations for Federal Reserve policy constitute another major driver. Despite strong US retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in November, combined with weaker-than-expected core CPI data, traders maintain their expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year. Furthermore, lingering concerns about the Fed's independence, following the Trump administration's threat to sue Chairman Powell, prompted a collective outcry from central bank governors worldwide.
Market sentiment was generally optimistic. Alex Ebcalian, Chief Operating Officer of Allegiance Gold, stated that market volatility may increase, but the upward trend in precious metals is expected to continue in the first quarter. He specifically noted that the short-term target price for silver is between $100 and $144. Other precious metals also generally rose, with platinum and palladium recording gains of 2.4% and 1.3%, respectively.
oil market
Oil prices experienced a rollercoaster ride on Wednesday. Prices initially surged in early trading due to concerns about supply disruptions from Iran, but quickly reversed course and fell after US President Trump stated in the afternoon that "the killings in Iran's crackdown on unrest are waning." Brent crude closed down 1.41% at $64.55 per barrel, while WTI crude closed down 1.57% at $60.19 per barrel.
The dramatic market reversal stemmed from a sudden easing of geopolitical tensions. Trump's remarks eased market concerns about potential disruptions to Iranian supplies. Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group, noted, "The market now believes that an attack on Iran is unlikely, hence the rapid drop in oil prices."
While short-term tensions have eased somewhat, the fundamental risks remain. Iran has warned that it will strike US bases in the Middle East if the US attacks. A US official revealed on the same day that, given the escalating regional tensions, the US is withdrawing some personnel from key bases as a precaution.
Fundamental data also put pressure on oil prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.4 million barrels last week, while the market expected a decrease; gasoline inventories surged by 9 million barrels, far exceeding expectations, reflecting weak demand or oversupply.
Citigroup analysts pointed out that the Iranian protests primarily affect oil prices by increasing geopolitical risk premiums, rather than actual supply. Since the protests have not spread to major oil-producing regions, their direct impact on physical supply is limited. Meanwhile, optimistic comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari regarding weakening inflation have also influenced market expectations for the economy and energy demand to some extent.
Foreign exchange market
The yen rebounded against the dollar on Wednesday, recovering from an intraday low of 159.45 (its lowest level since July 2024) to ultimately rise 0.43% to close at 158.46 yen per dollar. This rebound was largely driven by verbal warnings of intervention from Japanese officials.
The market had been selling the yen due to concerns that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi might call an early election and implement more expansionary fiscal and monetary policies (the "high-market trade" logic). However, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated his warning that day, stating that the authorities would "take appropriate action against excessive exchange rate volatility, without ruling out any options," which provided support for the yen.
Meanwhile, the US dollar remained generally stable. Rising market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months provided fundamental support for the dollar. Last Friday's lower-than-expected unemployment data further solidified this expectation. Morgan Stanley has postponed its first rate cut expectation from January to June.
Geopolitical tensions (such as Iran's warning of a possible strike on US military bases) and persistent market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have created a complex backdrop for the current foreign exchange market. Analysts believe that although warnings of intervention by Japanese authorities have increased two-way risks, a break above the key psychological level of 160 for the USD/JPY exchange rate could still trigger new market movements.
International News
Several European countries will send military personnel to Greenland.
The German Ministry of Defense announced on the evening of January 14th, local time, that at Denmark's request, Germany will send 13 soldiers to Greenland on January 15th as part of a joint mission with other European countries. The Ministry stated that the mission aims to explore possible military measures to strengthen security in the region. That same day, the French military announced that France would participate in a military mission in Greenland with several European partners to support Denmark in maintaining local security. Earlier that day, Sweden and Norway also announced they would send military personnel to Greenland.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: Fully prepared to respond to enemy actions
On March 14 local time, Mohammad Pakpour, commander-in-chief of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), issued a statement saying that the IRGC, as a "powerful people's armed force," is fully prepared to resolutely respond to any miscalculations by the enemy and by internal and external mercenary forces of the "Islamic State." Mohammad Pakpour stated that the crimes committed by mercenaries of US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will never be forgotten, and they will be punished "at the appropriate time." (CCTV News)
Federal Reserve Governor Milan included government deregulation in his arguments for cutting interest rates.
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan said the Trump administration's deregulation agenda provides additional justification for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. Speaking at an event in Athens on Wednesday, Milan said, "I believe the massive deregulation efforts currently underway in the U.S. will significantly boost competition, productivity, and potential growth rates, leading to faster economic growth without pushing up inflationary pressures." Milan said he expects 30% of the regulatory restrictions in the Codex Alimentarius to be eliminated by 2030, based on the Trump administration's pace of deregulation until 2025. Milan stated, "Overall, I believe the massive deregulation already implemented by 2025 will continue for at least the next three years, which will have a significant positive impact on productivity, thus putting downward pressure on prices. The net effect is that this supports a more accommodative monetary policy stance."
The French government survived a vote of no confidence in parliament.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the French National Assembly held a vote on two motions of no confidence against the government proposed by the opposition parties on the 14th. Both motions failed to pass, and the government led by Prime Minister Le Corny will continue to perform its duties as normal.
Report: The EU will allow member states to postpone the shutdown of their copper wire networks until 2035.
According to sources, the European Commission will allow member states to postpone the closure of traditional copper wire telecommunications networks until 2035 (the industry initially discussed and anticipated 2030), aiming to give the industry more time to transition to faster fiber optic networks. This move will grant national governments discretion to set their own copper wire retirement timelines based on local market conditions, network readiness, and the impact on consumers. This adjustment appears in the latest draft of the Digital Networks Act, a comprehensive update to EU telecommunications regulations, with any final rules requiring approval from EU legislators and member states.
The US threatens to cut off Venezuela's oil supplies to Cuba.
On January 11, US President Trump threatened Cuba with "zero oil and zero capital" inflows. Against this backdrop, Cuba, an island nation already facing widespread power outages and resource shortages, faces an even more uncertain future, forcing Cubans to prepare for the impending shock. It is reported that Cuba's current domestic crude oil production is approximately 40,000 barrels per day, meeting only about one-third of its domestic consumption needs. Limited by refining facilities, Cuba's domestically produced crude oil cannot be further processed and is mainly used directly for power generation in thermal power plants. According to shipping data and internal documents from Venezuela's state-owned oil company, PDVSA, Venezuela, as Cuba's largest oil supplier, has not shipped crude oil or fuel to Cuba for about a month. Mexican President Sinbaum recently stated that, due to the changing situation, Mexico has become an important oil supplier for Cuba. (CCTV International News)
Hamas: The start of the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire is an "important and positive development".
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qasim issued a statement on the 14th, saying that the US announcement that day of the launch of the second phase of the "20-point plan" to end the Gaza conflict was an "important and positive development." The statement called on the US government to urge Israel to fulfill its obligations under the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and to advance the ceasefire to the second phase. The statement indicated that Hamas is prepared to participate in intra-Palestinian discussions on the issue of "weapons for resistance," but the immediate priority is to launch a genuine humanitarian aid operation to save the cities in the Gaza Strip.
US media: The United States will suspend all visa processing for 75 countries starting January 21.
According to Fox News, the U.S. State Department will suspend all visa processing for 75 countries to strengthen scrutiny of applicants deemed potentially "public charge." An internal State Department memo indicates that consular officials will deny visa applications under current law while the department reassesses its visa vetting and background check procedures. Affected countries include Somalia, Russia, Afghanistan, Brazil, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Nigeria, Thailand, and Yemen. The suspension will begin on January 21 and will continue indefinitely until the State Department completes its reassessment of the visa processing procedures.
Domestic News
General Administration of Customs: my country will become a net exporter of industrial robots by 2025.
Wang Jun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that exports of high-tech products are projected to increase by 13.2% year-on-year in 2025, contributing 2.4 percentage points to my country's overall export growth. Specifically, exports of specialized equipment, high-end machine tools, and industrial robots increased by 20.6%, 21.5%, and 48.7%, respectively. Notably, exports of industrial robots exceeded imports last year, making my country a net exporter of industrial robots.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
