Former Icelandic President Grímsson issued a stern warning that a US military takeover of Greenland would lead to an "unprecedented" crisis for the Western alliance and the international order. While this event did not directly drive up gold prices in the short term, it significantly reinforced the core narrative supporting the long-term bull market for gold: the fragmentation of the international order.

Gold prices trended lower in Asian trading on Thursday (January 15), falling approximately 0.65% on the day, as reports indicated a decrease in Iranian repression-related killings and no plans for mass executions, alleviating some geopolitical risks but not altering the long-term bullish outlook. Gold had touched a record high of $4,642.77 per ounce in the previous session and is currently trading around $4,595, not far from that historical high.

Former Icelandic President issues warning

Former Icelandic President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson stated, "A US attempt to seize Greenland by force would have extremely serious consequences for the Western alliance and the global order." Meanwhile, US President Trump is intensifying his rhetoric regarding control of this Arctic territory.

"The consequences will be on a scale we have never seen in our lifetimes," Grimsson warned on the program. Grimsson served as President of Iceland from 1996 to 2016, the longest-serving president, and currently chairs the Arctic Circle Forum, the world's largest annual conference on Arctic issues.

Trump views Greenland—an autonomous region within the Kingdom of Denmark—as central to U.S. national security.

The White House meeting highlighted fundamental differences.

A Danish official said after the meeting that officials from Greenland, Denmark, and the United States met at the White House on Wednesday and found “fundamental differences” on the issue of Greenland’s ownership , adding that the two sides will continue to engage in dialogue.

Ahead of the talks, Trump further reinforced his rhetoric about Greenland, stating on social media that it was "unacceptable" unless Greenland became part of the United States.

Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederic Nilsson made it clear on Tuesday that if forced to choose, the country would choose Denmark over the United States.

The United States should focus on its own territory rather than buying Greenland.

Grimson also believes that if Trump's goal is to strengthen the U.S. presence in the Arctic, Washington should focus on domestic capabilities. He points out that the U.S. "is itself an Arctic nation," with an Arctic region larger than Texas, so instead of "buying Greenland," it should "first establish itself domestically."

The Arctic affairs leader added that the Trump administration and his predecessors' insufficient investment in Arctic infrastructure, such as icebreakers and ports, has caused the United States to lag behind its competitors. Grimson noted, "To enhance our presence in the Arctic, we must start at home," adding that the United States doesn't even have a single major port in the Arctic.

It remains unclear what strategic or economic advantages Washington could gain from controlling Greenland. Grimsson emphasized that existing agreements already grant the United States ample room for maneuver. He stated, "There are currently no obstacles preventing the United States from strengthening its security or commercial presence in Greenland, and it is difficult to grasp its true purpose because we haven't heard a more detailed explanation of this intention."

Real Estate Developers' Mindset and Strategic Fog

Grimson goes on to point out that Trump’s worldview—shaped by his real estate background—may be influencing his obsession with territory. “He is perhaps the first major world leader to have gained all his experience and mindset entirely through the real estate business, where the real estate mindset is location-centric,” Grimson says.

When asked whether Trump might take Greenland by force, Grimsson said that given the disparity in strength and Greenland's small population, military action was indeed possible, but he warned that such a move would come at an unprecedented political cost.

He said, "Yes, that's certainly possible, but the question is... what exactly is the purpose of this move besides planting an American flag and acquiring a piece of land?"

Gold Market: Long-Term Narrative Strengthening and Short-Term Pressure

This reinforces the long-standing narrative of "de-alliance" and "fragmentation of the international order," which is one of the foundations of the long-term bull market in gold .

This provides the market with yet another new and imaginable "black swan" scenario, making investors more inclined to hold gold in their asset allocation.

Further developments need to be observed in conjunction with US policies toward countries such as Iran and Venezuela. If Trump simultaneously adopts an aggressive stance on multiple geopolitical hotspots, the cumulative effect will exponentially amplify market demand for safe-haven assets, making gold the most direct beneficiary.



(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)

At 14:04 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4598.39 per ounce.