January 20th Financial Breakfast: The situation in Greenland spurs safe-haven demand, pushing gold prices close to the $4700 mark; oil prices are focused on trade tensions between Europe and the US.
2026-01-20 07:28:43
On Tuesday (January 20, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,670.60 per ounce. Gold prices hit a record high of $4,690.46 per ounce on Monday, mainly driven by safe-haven demand triggered by US President Trump's warning of additional tariffs on several European countries in the Greenland dispute. US crude oil was trading around $59.36 per barrel. Oil prices were basically stable on Monday. The easing of unrest in Iran reduced the risk of a US military strike against the major oil producer and disrupting its supply. Market attention then shifted to the trade tensions between the US and Europe, which could affect demand.
U.S. stock markets were closed on Monday, but global financial markets were reeling from President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on several European countries. European stocks fell significantly, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index dropping more than 1%, led by trade-sensitive sectors such as automobiles and luxury goods (e.g., BMW, LVMH).
U.S. stock index futures also fell, while European defense stocks bucked the trend and rose. Morgan Stanley stated that the impact of U.S. tariffs varies across companies, with tariffs related to Greenland expected to affect approximately 2.2% of the revenue of companies in the MSCI Europe Index. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate the impact will be concentrated in companies in the luxury goods, automotive, and pharmaceutical sectors, with Denmark being the European country most affected by the U.S. tariff increases.
George Saravelos of Deutsche Bank believes that European countries may reduce their massive holdings of U.S. assets. Europe's $8 trillion in U.S. stocks and bonds is nearly twice the combined holdings of the rest of the world. Saravelos said, "It's unclear why Europeans would be willing to play this role in an environment where the geoeconomic stability of the Western alliance is fundamentally undermined."
Spot gold and silver both hit record highs on Monday, primarily driven by safe-haven demand sparked by US President Trump's warnings of tariffs on several European countries in the Greenland dispute. Spot gold rose 1.7% to $4,672.49 an ounce, hitting a record high of $4,690.46 during the session. US gold futures for February delivery rose 1.8% to $4,677.70 an ounce. Spot silver performed even stronger, surging 5% and hitting a new record high of $94.68 in early Tuesday morning, bringing its year-to-date gain to nearly 32%.
This surge stems directly from geopolitical and trade risks. Trump previously threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries, including Denmark, Sweden, France, and Germany, until the US is allowed to purchase Greenland. Linh Tran, senior market analyst at XS, noted, "When institutional and policy risks resurface, markets tend to react quickly, reallocating safe-haven assets, and gold once again becomes the preferred choice."
Meanwhile, the US dollar index weakened due to trade war risks, further enhancing the appeal of safe-haven assets such as gold. Furthermore, recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicating a "readiness to cut interest rates again if necessary," and market expectations of at least two rate cuts this year, also provided macroeconomic support for precious metals.
Oil prices were largely steady on Monday as the easing of unrest in Iran reduced the risk of a U.S. military strike against the major oil producer and disruption of its supply, shifting market focus to trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe that could impact demand.
Brent crude rose slightly by 0.02% to $64.14 a barrel; WTI crude settled at $59.44 a barrel, unchanged from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading activity was relatively light due to a US public holiday.
On the one hand, geopolitical risks have shifted. Iran quelled the protests through a crackdown, and US President Trump appeared to have withdrawn his earlier threats of intervention, eliminating some of the supply risk premium that supported oil prices. On the other hand, a new focus has emerged. Market attention has turned to the escalating tensions between the US and Europe over the Greenland sovereignty dispute. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on several European countries, while the EU stated it was prepared to retaliate and planned an emergency summit. Analysts point out that any escalation of the trade war could damage the outlook for oil demand.
In addition, colder weather is expected in the Northern Hemisphere, which has exacerbated market concerns about tight distillate fuel supplies, providing some support for oil prices.
The dollar index fell on Monday as renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump over Greenland tensions in Europe sent investors to safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc, triggering widespread safe-haven trading.
Trump announced over the weekend that he would impose a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries, including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and France, starting February 1, until the United States is allowed to purchase Greenland. In response, EU leaders are stepping up their efforts to dissuade him and are preparing countermeasures.
The initial market reaction was a sell-off of the dollar, with European currencies rebounding after overnight declines. The euro rose 0.3% against the dollar to 1.1638, and the pound rose 0.34% to 1.342. The typical safe-haven currency, the Swiss franc, performed strongly, with the dollar falling 0.7% against the franc to 0.797, its biggest one-day gain in a month. The dollar also fell 0.14% against the yen to 157.9.
Analysts are divided on the outlook for the US dollar. Strategists at Societe Generale believe that if the trade war escalates, it will hurt Europe more than the US, while the dollar may not necessarily suffer; in fact, heightened tensions could even prompt capital to flow back to the dollar.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to attend a hearing before the U.S. Supreme Court regarding the Cook case.
A source familiar with the matter revealed that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell plans to appear before the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday in a hearing regarding President Donald Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Last October, the Supreme Court refused to allow Trump to immediately fire Cook while she was suing to retain her position. This ruling means Cook can remain in her post, at least until the Supreme Court hears oral arguments this week and issues its final decision. Trump ordered Cook's dismissal in late August on unsubstantiated mortgage fraud allegations, which Cook has denied. Federal Reserve watchers and legal analysts say the outcome of this case will have profound implications for the president's ability to dismiss Federal Reserve governors, and consequently, the central bank's ability to set interest rates free from political interference.
Vujcic to become Vice President of the European Central Bank; Breakthrough achieved in Eastern Europe.
Boris Vujcic, governor of the Central Bank of Croatia, is poised to become the next vice president of the European Central Bank (ECB), becoming the first Eastern European to join the institution's Executive Board. Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis said the 61-year-old policymaker received the support of eurozone finance ministers on Monday to succeed Luis de Guindos, who will step down at the end of May. "We are moving as planned, and Boris Vujcic will assume his post at the ECB on June 1," Pierrakakis, who also serves as Greece's finance minister, told reporters in Brussels. Prior to that, he will undergo hearings at the European Parliament and be consulted by the ECB's Governing Council. EU leaders have the final say on the appointment. They typically follow the eurogroup's votes. This decision is a breakthrough for Eastern Europe. Although the region now comprises one-third of the eurozone's 21 member states, no one from the region has ever served on the ECB's Executive Board before.
British Prime Minister tells US: Trade war is not in anyone's interest
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer addressed the nation on the 19th, stating that a trade war is not in the interest of either side, and that the United States' use of tariffs against its allies is "completely wrong." Starmer said that any decision regarding Greenland's future status "depends entirely on the people of Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark itself." He stated that his current focus is on ensuring "we do not get bogged down in a trade war." Starmer also indicated that Europe needs to "do more" in its own defense and security. (Xinhua)
Norway and Sweden have announced their readiness to participate in NATO's Arctic missions.
On the 19th, Norwegian Defense Minister Sandvik stated after meeting with the Danish Defense Minister at NATO headquarters in Brussels that Norway would not refuse to participate in NATO military operations around Greenland, initiated at the request of Danish Defense Minister Poulsen. Sandvik indicated that political dialogue between Denmark and the United States is essential, and he hoped it would proceed constructively. Furthermore, NATO must continue its efforts to strengthen its presence in the Arctic region. On the same day, Swedish Defense Minister Jonsson, after meeting with Danish Defense Minister Poulsen and others at NATO headquarters in Brussels, stated that Sweden does not rule out participation in NATO's Arctic missions. Jonsson said, "I do not rule out this possibility at all. But the first step is to conduct reconnaissance missions with some other countries." (CCTV)
The Israeli military claims it is fully prepared to respond to threats on "multiple fronts".
On the 19th local time, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Zamir, during a visit to the IDF Homeland Defense Command, stated that the IDF is fully prepared to respond to threats on "multi-fronts." Zamir indicated that facing a large-scale potential threat against Israeli territory, the IDF is on high alert and possesses the capability to protect civilian lives in such attacks. Zamir stated that the IDF is prepared to utilize "unprecedented" offensive capabilities to retaliate against any attempt to harm Israel. Zamir also stated that the IDF has fully learned from the lessons of the "12-day war" with Iran in June 2025. As part of its strategic deployment, the IDF is currently preparing for a possible "sudden war." (CCTV)
Nearly 400 UNDP jobs will be relocated from New York to Europe.
On January 19 local time, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) announced a restructuring of some positions at its New York headquarters, with nearly 400 positions being relocated to Europe. Approximately three-quarters of these positions will move to Bonn, Germany, while the remainder will relocate to Madrid, Spain. The UNDP stated that this adjustment is part of its institutional reforms aimed at adapting to the changing global financial and development environment, strengthening ties with host countries and partners, and enhancing its capacity to support the world's most vulnerable populations. Following the restructuring, the UNDP's staff in Bonn, Germany, will exceed 400. Bonn is also the long-term home of the United Nations Volunteers. The UNDP expressed its gratitude to Germany and Spain for agreeing to accept the positions, stating that this move will further solidify their cooperative relationship. The UNDP emphasized that New York will remain its global headquarters. Currently, the UNDP operates in approximately 170 countries and territories, with a total of about 22,000 employees, the vast majority of whom work in frontline and regional agencies in various countries, with less than 7% based at its New York headquarters. (CCTV)
China's series of measures to integrate domestic and foreign trade have benefited export-to-domestic sales products worth 12.5 billion yuan.
On the 19th, it was learned that the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) is focusing on promoting the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, strengthening the connection between domestic and international certification systems, and guiding local market supervision departments to provide assistance. A series of measures have benefited export-to-domestic sales products worth 12.5 billion yuan. The SAMR has established a dedicated working mechanism to guide mandatory product certification (CCC certification) implementing agencies to further optimize certification procedures, reduce certification costs, and shorten certification cycles. It also requires CCC certification implementing agencies with relevant international certification qualifications to integrate domestic and international certification evaluation schemes and build a one-stop service system, ensuring that enterprises can simultaneously obtain multiple domestic and international access qualifications with a single testing and certification evaluation. In addition, the SAMR requires local market supervision departments to guide designated mandatory product certification implementing agencies to open green and fast-track access channels for enterprises, accelerating the process of obtaining CCC certification and entering the domestic market for products that meet mandatory national standards and are already included in the CCC certification scope. (CCTV News)
Beijing establishes its first professional title in robotics, with the first evaluation to begin in July this year.
Recently, the Beijing Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau officially issued the "Trial Measures for the Evaluation of Professional Titles in Robotics in Beijing," along with new policy interpretations. The measures add a robotics professional title evaluation category to the engineering and technical series, precisely matching the talent evaluation needs in the robotics field and helping Beijing build a new highland for innovative development in the robotics industry. The measures will officially take effect in 2026, with the first evaluation scheduled to begin this July. (CCTV News)
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stock markets were closed on Monday, but global financial markets were reeling from President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on several European countries. European stocks fell significantly, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index dropping more than 1%, led by trade-sensitive sectors such as automobiles and luxury goods (e.g., BMW, LVMH).
U.S. stock index futures also fell, while European defense stocks bucked the trend and rose. Morgan Stanley stated that the impact of U.S. tariffs varies across companies, with tariffs related to Greenland expected to affect approximately 2.2% of the revenue of companies in the MSCI Europe Index. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate the impact will be concentrated in companies in the luxury goods, automotive, and pharmaceutical sectors, with Denmark being the European country most affected by the U.S. tariff increases.
George Saravelos of Deutsche Bank believes that European countries may reduce their massive holdings of U.S. assets. Europe's $8 trillion in U.S. stocks and bonds is nearly twice the combined holdings of the rest of the world. Saravelos said, "It's unclear why Europeans would be willing to play this role in an environment where the geoeconomic stability of the Western alliance is fundamentally undermined."
Gold Market
Spot gold and silver both hit record highs on Monday, primarily driven by safe-haven demand sparked by US President Trump's warnings of tariffs on several European countries in the Greenland dispute. Spot gold rose 1.7% to $4,672.49 an ounce, hitting a record high of $4,690.46 during the session. US gold futures for February delivery rose 1.8% to $4,677.70 an ounce. Spot silver performed even stronger, surging 5% and hitting a new record high of $94.68 in early Tuesday morning, bringing its year-to-date gain to nearly 32%.
This surge stems directly from geopolitical and trade risks. Trump previously threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries, including Denmark, Sweden, France, and Germany, until the US is allowed to purchase Greenland. Linh Tran, senior market analyst at XS, noted, "When institutional and policy risks resurface, markets tend to react quickly, reallocating safe-haven assets, and gold once again becomes the preferred choice."
Meanwhile, the US dollar index weakened due to trade war risks, further enhancing the appeal of safe-haven assets such as gold. Furthermore, recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicating a "readiness to cut interest rates again if necessary," and market expectations of at least two rate cuts this year, also provided macroeconomic support for precious metals.
oil market
Oil prices were largely steady on Monday as the easing of unrest in Iran reduced the risk of a U.S. military strike against the major oil producer and disruption of its supply, shifting market focus to trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe that could impact demand.
Brent crude rose slightly by 0.02% to $64.14 a barrel; WTI crude settled at $59.44 a barrel, unchanged from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading activity was relatively light due to a US public holiday.
On the one hand, geopolitical risks have shifted. Iran quelled the protests through a crackdown, and US President Trump appeared to have withdrawn his earlier threats of intervention, eliminating some of the supply risk premium that supported oil prices. On the other hand, a new focus has emerged. Market attention has turned to the escalating tensions between the US and Europe over the Greenland sovereignty dispute. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on several European countries, while the EU stated it was prepared to retaliate and planned an emergency summit. Analysts point out that any escalation of the trade war could damage the outlook for oil demand.
In addition, colder weather is expected in the Northern Hemisphere, which has exacerbated market concerns about tight distillate fuel supplies, providing some support for oil prices.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar index fell on Monday as renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump over Greenland tensions in Europe sent investors to safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc, triggering widespread safe-haven trading.
Trump announced over the weekend that he would impose a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries, including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and France, starting February 1, until the United States is allowed to purchase Greenland. In response, EU leaders are stepping up their efforts to dissuade him and are preparing countermeasures.
The initial market reaction was a sell-off of the dollar, with European currencies rebounding after overnight declines. The euro rose 0.3% against the dollar to 1.1638, and the pound rose 0.34% to 1.342. The typical safe-haven currency, the Swiss franc, performed strongly, with the dollar falling 0.7% against the franc to 0.797, its biggest one-day gain in a month. The dollar also fell 0.14% against the yen to 157.9.
Analysts are divided on the outlook for the US dollar. Strategists at Societe Generale believe that if the trade war escalates, it will hurt Europe more than the US, while the dollar may not necessarily suffer; in fact, heightened tensions could even prompt capital to flow back to the dollar.
International News
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to attend a hearing before the U.S. Supreme Court regarding the Cook case.
A source familiar with the matter revealed that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell plans to appear before the U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday in a hearing regarding President Donald Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Last October, the Supreme Court refused to allow Trump to immediately fire Cook while she was suing to retain her position. This ruling means Cook can remain in her post, at least until the Supreme Court hears oral arguments this week and issues its final decision. Trump ordered Cook's dismissal in late August on unsubstantiated mortgage fraud allegations, which Cook has denied. Federal Reserve watchers and legal analysts say the outcome of this case will have profound implications for the president's ability to dismiss Federal Reserve governors, and consequently, the central bank's ability to set interest rates free from political interference.
Vujcic to become Vice President of the European Central Bank; Breakthrough achieved in Eastern Europe.
Boris Vujcic, governor of the Central Bank of Croatia, is poised to become the next vice president of the European Central Bank (ECB), becoming the first Eastern European to join the institution's Executive Board. Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis said the 61-year-old policymaker received the support of eurozone finance ministers on Monday to succeed Luis de Guindos, who will step down at the end of May. "We are moving as planned, and Boris Vujcic will assume his post at the ECB on June 1," Pierrakakis, who also serves as Greece's finance minister, told reporters in Brussels. Prior to that, he will undergo hearings at the European Parliament and be consulted by the ECB's Governing Council. EU leaders have the final say on the appointment. They typically follow the eurogroup's votes. This decision is a breakthrough for Eastern Europe. Although the region now comprises one-third of the eurozone's 21 member states, no one from the region has ever served on the ECB's Executive Board before.
British Prime Minister tells US: Trade war is not in anyone's interest
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer addressed the nation on the 19th, stating that a trade war is not in the interest of either side, and that the United States' use of tariffs against its allies is "completely wrong." Starmer said that any decision regarding Greenland's future status "depends entirely on the people of Greenland and the Kingdom of Denmark itself." He stated that his current focus is on ensuring "we do not get bogged down in a trade war." Starmer also indicated that Europe needs to "do more" in its own defense and security. (Xinhua)
Norway and Sweden have announced their readiness to participate in NATO's Arctic missions.
On the 19th, Norwegian Defense Minister Sandvik stated after meeting with the Danish Defense Minister at NATO headquarters in Brussels that Norway would not refuse to participate in NATO military operations around Greenland, initiated at the request of Danish Defense Minister Poulsen. Sandvik indicated that political dialogue between Denmark and the United States is essential, and he hoped it would proceed constructively. Furthermore, NATO must continue its efforts to strengthen its presence in the Arctic region. On the same day, Swedish Defense Minister Jonsson, after meeting with Danish Defense Minister Poulsen and others at NATO headquarters in Brussels, stated that Sweden does not rule out participation in NATO's Arctic missions. Jonsson said, "I do not rule out this possibility at all. But the first step is to conduct reconnaissance missions with some other countries." (CCTV)
The Israeli military claims it is fully prepared to respond to threats on "multiple fronts".
On the 19th local time, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Zamir, during a visit to the IDF Homeland Defense Command, stated that the IDF is fully prepared to respond to threats on "multi-fronts." Zamir indicated that facing a large-scale potential threat against Israeli territory, the IDF is on high alert and possesses the capability to protect civilian lives in such attacks. Zamir stated that the IDF is prepared to utilize "unprecedented" offensive capabilities to retaliate against any attempt to harm Israel. Zamir also stated that the IDF has fully learned from the lessons of the "12-day war" with Iran in June 2025. As part of its strategic deployment, the IDF is currently preparing for a possible "sudden war." (CCTV)
Nearly 400 UNDP jobs will be relocated from New York to Europe.
On January 19 local time, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) announced a restructuring of some positions at its New York headquarters, with nearly 400 positions being relocated to Europe. Approximately three-quarters of these positions will move to Bonn, Germany, while the remainder will relocate to Madrid, Spain. The UNDP stated that this adjustment is part of its institutional reforms aimed at adapting to the changing global financial and development environment, strengthening ties with host countries and partners, and enhancing its capacity to support the world's most vulnerable populations. Following the restructuring, the UNDP's staff in Bonn, Germany, will exceed 400. Bonn is also the long-term home of the United Nations Volunteers. The UNDP expressed its gratitude to Germany and Spain for agreeing to accept the positions, stating that this move will further solidify their cooperative relationship. The UNDP emphasized that New York will remain its global headquarters. Currently, the UNDP operates in approximately 170 countries and territories, with a total of about 22,000 employees, the vast majority of whom work in frontline and regional agencies in various countries, with less than 7% based at its New York headquarters. (CCTV)
Domestic News
China's series of measures to integrate domestic and foreign trade have benefited export-to-domestic sales products worth 12.5 billion yuan.
On the 19th, it was learned that the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) is focusing on promoting the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, strengthening the connection between domestic and international certification systems, and guiding local market supervision departments to provide assistance. A series of measures have benefited export-to-domestic sales products worth 12.5 billion yuan. The SAMR has established a dedicated working mechanism to guide mandatory product certification (CCC certification) implementing agencies to further optimize certification procedures, reduce certification costs, and shorten certification cycles. It also requires CCC certification implementing agencies with relevant international certification qualifications to integrate domestic and international certification evaluation schemes and build a one-stop service system, ensuring that enterprises can simultaneously obtain multiple domestic and international access qualifications with a single testing and certification evaluation. In addition, the SAMR requires local market supervision departments to guide designated mandatory product certification implementing agencies to open green and fast-track access channels for enterprises, accelerating the process of obtaining CCC certification and entering the domestic market for products that meet mandatory national standards and are already included in the CCC certification scope. (CCTV News)
Beijing establishes its first professional title in robotics, with the first evaluation to begin in July this year.
Recently, the Beijing Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau officially issued the "Trial Measures for the Evaluation of Professional Titles in Robotics in Beijing," along with new policy interpretations. The measures add a robotics professional title evaluation category to the engineering and technical series, precisely matching the talent evaluation needs in the robotics field and helping Beijing build a new highland for innovative development in the robotics industry. The measures will officially take effect in 2026, with the first evaluation scheduled to begin this July. (CCTV News)
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