A Tumultuous Winter: Trump's Policy Variables Continue to Disrupt Markets, Safe-Haven Gold Continues to Rise
2026-01-21 14:37:33
The world is currently at the eye of multiple storms in geopolitics, financial stability, and the political landscape, all of which are driving up demand for gold as a safe haven and store of value. On Wednesday (January 21), spot gold fluctuated upwards during the Asian and European sessions, currently trading around $4885 per ounce, with a daily increase of approximately 2.55%. As of 14:28, the price of gold had briefly touched a record high of $4888.17 per ounce.
On Tuesday local time, US President Donald Trump answered questions at a press conference. When asked whether a Supreme Court ruling against tariffs would affect US security policy toward Greenland, Trump stated that if existing tariff tools were restricted, he could utilize alternatives such as licensing regimes.
He also emphasized that the current methods are the best, most powerful, fastest, simplest, and least complicated, but not the only option.
On Tuesday local time, reports indicated that President Trump stated his goal of controlling Greenland remains unchanged and refused to rule out the possibility of seizing the island by force. On social media, Trump explicitly stated his objective: to seize sovereignty over Greenland from NATO ally Denmark .
The day before, CCTV reporters learned that Trump declined to comment on whether he would use force to seize Greenland during an interview.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated at his annual press conference in Moscow on the 20th that Russia will continue to seek a diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Lavrov pointed out that Russia has always been open to resolving the Ukraine issue diplomatically, but the West is doing everything it can to undermine a peace agreement. He believes that British, French, and German officials have no interest in resolving the Ukraine issue and are unwilling to reach an agreement to end the conflict. Whenever Russia shows goodwill in resolving the issue, the process is obstructed by the West. Lavrov added that the West's attempt to isolate Russia is no secret, but it has failed.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's decision to dissolve the House of Representatives and call a snap election has sparked a strong public reaction. Citizens held rallies to oppose the decision, and experts and media also expressed their dissatisfaction, arguing that dissolving the House of Representatives under the current circumstances is a baseless abuse of power.
The opposition accused Sanae Takaichi of selfishness and disregard for people's livelihoods. The Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito stated they would expedite internal personnel changes and other procedures to unite against the ruling coalition led by Takaichi in the upcoming House of Representatives election.
The saga surrounding President Trump's efforts to "reshape" the Federal Reserve has taken a new turn, with the focus now on whether Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will step down at the end of his term. While Treasury Secretary Bessant stated on Tuesday that a highly anticipated replacement could be chosen as early as next week, Powell's 14-year term as a Fed governor will extend to January 31, 2028.
Historical practice shows that almost all outgoing Federal Reserve chairs also step down from their governorships. However, if Powell believes the threat to the Fed's independence is serious enough, he may decide to break this tradition and remain on the governorship. Marina Eccles did something similar in the late 1940s.
Some on Wall Street believe that the prospect of Trump gaining further control of the Federal Reserve Board and thereby dominating monetary policy may prompt Powell and Fed Governor Michael Barr to remain in office after their terms expire in May.
Similarly, Philip Jefferson, vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) responsible for interest rate decisions—whose term will last until January 2036—can also choose to remain in office or leave. Wall Street increasingly speculates that threats to the Fed's independence may increase the likelihood that all current governors will remain in their positions.
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxem announced on Wednesday that a parliamentary election will be held on Saturday, November 7, and that Parliament is scheduled to be dissolved on October 1. A center-right coalition government led by Luxem and comprised of the National Party, New Zealand First, and the ACT Party has been in power since the 2023 general election. The former aviation executive's approval ratings have declined over the past year due to the weak economy. Current polls show a close race, with neither the ruling coalition nor the center-left Labour Party led by former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins securing a clear majority.
According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials revealed that although the planned strike against Iran was withdrawn last week, President Trump continues to ask his staff for military solutions with "decisive" effects. These discussions are proceeding in parallel with the U.S. deployment of additional aircraft carriers and fighter jets to the Middle East, potentially laying the foundation for a large-scale military buildup.
Trump's repeated use of the word "decisive" in describing the desired effect has prompted his aides to refine various options, including directly targeting regime change in Iran. At the same time, more moderate options are being developed, potentially including strikes against facilities linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. No final orders have been issued, but Trump's continued demands suggest he has not ruled out "punitive" action against Iran.
The current environment provides a near-perfect macro narrative for gold: multiple geopolitical crises offer explosive themes, doubts about the dollar's credibility provide a long-term structural reason for buying, and potential inflationary pressures provide supplementary support.
Unless there are major turning points (such as a swift diplomatic resolution to the Greenland issue, the easing of the Federal Reserve's personnel crisis and the maintenance of its independence, or a significant de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East), the gold market will continue to be boosted by these factors.
Any pullback in gold prices is likely to be seen as a buying opportunity by the market, because what drives its upward movement is not short-term sentiment, but deep concerns about the instability of the global political order and the rupture of trust in the financial system. Gold has evolved from a traditional portfolio hedging tool into a core asset allocation for dealing with "world order uncertainty."
From a technical perspective, one thing is clear: the current trend remains firmly bullish . Therefore, close attention needs to be paid to the closing price at support levels. Initial support is near Monday's breakout high, around $4690, which has now become the first line of defense. A break below this level would bring the hammer candlestick pattern high of $4620, the next key level to watch. A deeper pullback could expose $4550, the previous all-time high reached in December 2025, while $4500 remains a significant psychological support level. As long as this level holds, the bulls will remain firmly in control.
On the upside, with strong safe-haven buying, the key $5,000 level may be within reach.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 14:37 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4878.25 per ounce.
Trump: If the Supreme Court restricts federal tariff policy, other means can also be used.
On Tuesday local time, US President Donald Trump answered questions at a press conference. When asked whether a Supreme Court ruling against tariffs would affect US security policy toward Greenland, Trump stated that if existing tariff tools were restricted, he could utilize alternatives such as licensing regimes.
He also emphasized that the current methods are the best, most powerful, fastest, simplest, and least complicated, but not the only option.
Trump: The possibility of taking Greenland by force cannot be ruled out.
On Tuesday local time, reports indicated that President Trump stated his goal of controlling Greenland remains unchanged and refused to rule out the possibility of seizing the island by force. On social media, Trump explicitly stated his objective: to seize sovereignty over Greenland from NATO ally Denmark .
The day before, CCTV reporters learned that Trump declined to comment on whether he would use force to seize Greenland during an interview.
Russian Foreign Minister emphasizes seeking a diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated at his annual press conference in Moscow on the 20th that Russia will continue to seek a diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Lavrov pointed out that Russia has always been open to resolving the Ukraine issue diplomatically, but the West is doing everything it can to undermine a peace agreement. He believes that British, French, and German officials have no interest in resolving the Ukraine issue and are unwilling to reach an agreement to end the conflict. Whenever Russia shows goodwill in resolving the issue, the process is obstructed by the West. Lavrov added that the West's attempt to isolate Russia is no secret, but it has failed.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's decision to dissolve the House of Representatives has sparked sharp criticism.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's decision to dissolve the House of Representatives and call a snap election has sparked a strong public reaction. Citizens held rallies to oppose the decision, and experts and media also expressed their dissatisfaction, arguing that dissolving the House of Representatives under the current circumstances is a baseless abuse of power.
The opposition accused Sanae Takaichi of selfishness and disregard for people's livelihoods. The Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito stated they would expedite internal personnel changes and other procedures to unite against the ruling coalition led by Takaichi in the upcoming House of Representatives election.
The market continues to bet that Powell will remain in office despite a possible demotion.
The saga surrounding President Trump's efforts to "reshape" the Federal Reserve has taken a new turn, with the focus now on whether Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will step down at the end of his term. While Treasury Secretary Bessant stated on Tuesday that a highly anticipated replacement could be chosen as early as next week, Powell's 14-year term as a Fed governor will extend to January 31, 2028.
Historical practice shows that almost all outgoing Federal Reserve chairs also step down from their governorships. However, if Powell believes the threat to the Fed's independence is serious enough, he may decide to break this tradition and remain on the governorship. Marina Eccles did something similar in the late 1940s.
Some on Wall Street believe that the prospect of Trump gaining further control of the Federal Reserve Board and thereby dominating monetary policy may prompt Powell and Fed Governor Michael Barr to remain in office after their terms expire in May.
Similarly, Philip Jefferson, vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) responsible for interest rate decisions—whose term will last until January 2036—can also choose to remain in office or leave. Wall Street increasingly speculates that threats to the Fed's independence may increase the likelihood that all current governors will remain in their positions.
New Zealand has announced a general election on November 7, with the ruling coalition facing challenges and the election race remaining close.
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxem announced on Wednesday that a parliamentary election will be held on Saturday, November 7, and that Parliament is scheduled to be dissolved on October 1. A center-right coalition government led by Luxem and comprised of the National Party, New Zealand First, and the ACT Party has been in power since the 2023 general election. The former aviation executive's approval ratings have declined over the past year due to the weak economy. Current polls show a close race, with neither the ruling coalition nor the center-left Labour Party led by former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins securing a clear majority.
Even after withdrawing the strike plan, Trump still asked his staff to develop a decisive military plan against Iran.
According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials revealed that although the planned strike against Iran was withdrawn last week, President Trump continues to ask his staff for military solutions with "decisive" effects. These discussions are proceeding in parallel with the U.S. deployment of additional aircraft carriers and fighter jets to the Middle East, potentially laying the foundation for a large-scale military buildup.
Trump's repeated use of the word "decisive" in describing the desired effect has prompted his aides to refine various options, including directly targeting regime change in Iran. At the same time, more moderate options are being developed, potentially including strikes against facilities linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. No final orders have been issued, but Trump's continued demands suggest he has not ruled out "punitive" action against Iran.
Multiple risk factors combined to boost gold
The current environment provides a near-perfect macro narrative for gold: multiple geopolitical crises offer explosive themes, doubts about the dollar's credibility provide a long-term structural reason for buying, and potential inflationary pressures provide supplementary support.
Unless there are major turning points (such as a swift diplomatic resolution to the Greenland issue, the easing of the Federal Reserve's personnel crisis and the maintenance of its independence, or a significant de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East), the gold market will continue to be boosted by these factors.
Any pullback in gold prices is likely to be seen as a buying opportunity by the market, because what drives its upward movement is not short-term sentiment, but deep concerns about the instability of the global political order and the rupture of trust in the financial system. Gold has evolved from a traditional portfolio hedging tool into a core asset allocation for dealing with "world order uncertainty."
From a technical perspective, gold prices are firmly in the hands of bulls.
From a technical perspective, one thing is clear: the current trend remains firmly bullish . Therefore, close attention needs to be paid to the closing price at support levels. Initial support is near Monday's breakout high, around $4690, which has now become the first line of defense. A break below this level would bring the hammer candlestick pattern high of $4620, the next key level to watch. A deeper pullback could expose $4550, the previous all-time high reached in December 2025, while $4500 remains a significant psychological support level. As long as this level holds, the bulls will remain firmly in control.
On the upside, with strong safe-haven buying, the key $5,000 level may be within reach.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 14:37 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4878.25 per ounce.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
