Soaring jet fuel prices have severely impacted the profitability of airlines worldwide. Due to the conflict in Iran, jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the past month. In response to this crisis, many airlines have begun raising ticket prices and canceling some flights to alleviate cost pressures and operational risks.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted the supply of crude oil and petroleum products, forcing Asian refineries to reduce operating rates. Asian countries have also implemented measures to restrict or ban fuel exports to prioritize domestic supplies. This chain reaction has made aviation fuel the most pressured commodity in the current global petroleum product market.

Aviation fuel has become the most scarce fuel, with a significant supply shortage.

Compared to the crude oil market, the refined oil market was more severely impacted. The war caused serious disruptions to oil and fuel supplies, pushing the premium of jet fuel and diesel over Brent crude to extremely high levels. The jet fuel crack spread and spot prices were hit the hardest, indicating that airlines and end consumers will face even heavier cost pressures in the future.

"Jet fuel is currently the most stressed petroleum product," said June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities. She pointed out that jet fuel requires highly specialized storage facilities, and global storage levels are far lower than other fuels such as diesel and gasoline. Due to these storage limitations, jet fuel supplies were most directly and severely impacted in the early stages of a conflict.

June Goh added, "There are no alternative production methods for aviation fuel, nor are there strategic reserves. Some airlines have been forced to take demand-disrupting measures, and prices have now doubled."

Even if the strait reopens, market recovery will still take several months.

In her analysis last week, June Goh pointed out that even if the Strait of Hormuz were unconditionally open to all ships today, global oil production and refining supply chains would need at least three to six months to gradually recover to pre-war levels. She stated, "The damage has already been done, and it will take months to return to normal. Until things truly return to normal in any sense, the most stressed oil products, such as jet fuel and diesel, will face an even more severe situation."

James Noel-Beswick, head of commodities at Sparta Commodities, warned in his April trading outlook: "A global jet fuel shortage is emerging, and there is currently no clear mechanism to alleviate it." He added that despite prices being at extreme levels, major arbitrage windows to Europe and Los Angeles have closed, and jet fuel inventories in the U.S. Gulf Coast are also very tight, signaling a "real shortage with limited rebalancing capacity."

International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol also clearly stated that jet fuel and diesel are currently the most stressed commodities in the global oil market. He pointed out this week: "The biggest problem right now is the shortage of jet fuel and diesel, a challenge that has already manifested in Asia, and by April or early May, this problem will spread further to Europe."

Airlines are facing increasing pressure and have resorted to raising prices and reducing flights.

The aviation fuel supply crisis is spreading rapidly. Qantas, the Australian airline, became one of the first major airlines to raise international fares in early March. The company stated that despite some hedging, the doubling of aviation fuel prices has significantly increased overall operating costs.

Korean Air, the flagship airline of South Korea, has entered a state of emergency. Two weeks after the outbreak of the conflict, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) pointed out that aviation fuel is the largest cost item for airlines, and "the damage is most severe when fuel prices rise rapidly and airlines are unable to adjust their strategies in time."

Asian airlines have begun cancelling some flights, while European airlines are deeply concerned about a potential genuine fuel shortage in May and beyond. Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair, Europe's largest low-cost carrier, said on Wednesday: "We don't expect any supply disruptions before early May, but there is indeed a risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June if the war continues. We hope the war will end as soon as possible to eliminate this risk."

He added that Ryanair has hedged well on 80% of its fuel supply, but the remaining 20% is currently nearly doubled in price, reaching about $150 per barrel.

Lufthansa, Europe’s largest airline group, is also developing crisis response plans based on the severity of soaring prices and fuel shortages, and is prepared to ground about 5% of its capacity, or about 40 aircraft.

In conclusion , the aviation fuel supply crisis triggered by the conflict in Iran has already had a substantial impact on the global aviation industry. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the future, it will take several months for the market to return to normal. During this period, the aviation fuel shortage will continue to drive up airline operating costs, ultimately affecting ordinary passengers. Airlines are responding to the crisis by raising prices and reducing flights, while consumers are forced to face higher travel costs.

This situation is unlikely to ease in the short term, and the prospects for recovery in the global aviation industry face new uncertainties.