Gold and silver maintained strong gains despite a slight decline in risk appetite.
2026-02-04 01:16:40
Gold and silver prices surged in the midday US trading session on Tuesday (February 3), with bulls actively buying on dips after recent sharp declines. Gold jumped more than 6% and silver rose more than 8% during the session, with gold poised to record its biggest single-day gain since November 2008.
After a sharp pullback from near its all-time high of $5,600 last week, bargain hunters returned to the market. Spot gold was trading around $4,952 during the session, having fallen to a four-week low of around $4,402 on Monday before rebounding.
April gold futures rose 6.93% to $4,975.00 per ounce, a daily increase of $322.4. March silver futures surged 11.6% to $85.94 per ounce, a daily increase of $8.931. Silver experienced a record single-day plunge of 27% last Friday, followed by a further 6% drop on Monday, before rebounding strongly on Tuesday, with intraday gains approaching 10%. Overall volatility in the precious metals market remains high.
Both precious metals rose sharply today, also benefiting from a slight decline in overall market risk appetite compared to overnight; at the same time, a weaker US dollar index and stronger crude oil prices also provided favorable support for gold and silver prices.
Fundamental Outlook
This round of sharp sell-off in precious metals is mainly a technical market movement, driven by position liquidation and margin-related settlements, rather than a significant deterioration in fundamentals. The macroeconomic backdrop for gold still provides strong support.
"I believe the recent decline is a technical correction within a long-term uptrend," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zana Metals. He added that the core fundamental factors that have driven gold higher in recent years remain solid. "The market is likely entering a consolidation phase, with key support at $4,400 and resistance around $5,100."
Despite sharp short-term fluctuations, analysts generally expect the current bull market to continue, with gold potentially hitting new record highs this year. Jeffrey Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group, stated, "Investors' concerns about the economic and political situation remain, and we expect gold and silver prices to resume their long-term upward trend at a more stable pace."
Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments. However, without new positive catalysts, gold may enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Meanwhile, signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran could weaken safe-haven demand to some extent; a renewed strengthening of the US dollar would also limit the upside potential of spot gold.
Market drivers: US-Iran tensions, US-India trade, and a rebounding US dollar.
Tensions between the US and Iran have shown signs of easing. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Tuesday that he had instructed his foreign minister to "seek fair and just negotiations with the United States," and reports indicate that both sides plan to send senior envoys to Istanbul later this week to discuss Iran's nuclear program. This statement comes after Trump said Iran was "taking negotiations seriously."
On Monday, Trump announced that the United States and India had reached a trade agreement: the tariffs imposed by the United States on Indian goods will be reduced from about 50% to 18%; in return, India will increase its purchases of U.S. goods, pledging to buy up to $500 billion worth of goods.
The US dollar index (DXY) is currently trading around 97.40, near a one-week high, after stabilizing and rebounding last week after falling to a four-year low.
Positive U.S. manufacturing data reinforced the Federal Reserve's view of remaining patient before initiating monetary easing. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI jumped sharply to 52.6 in January from 47.9 in December, far exceeding market expectations of 48.5; the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 52.4 from 51.9.
Technical Analysis
(COMEX Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678)
April gold futures prices formed a large and bearish "key reversal" downtrend on the daily chart last week, a chart clue indicating a market top. The next upside target for the bulls is a close above the strong resistance level of $5,250.00. The next near-term downside target for the bears is to push futures prices below the strong technical support level of this week's low of $4,423.20. First resistance is at today's high of $4,977.70, followed by $5,000.00. First support is at $4,750.00, followed by the overnight low of $4,690.20.
The next upside price target for March silver futures bulls is a close above the strong technical resistance level of $100.00. The next downside price target for bears is a close below the strong support level of $70.00. The first resistance level is at today's high of $89.10, followed by $90.00. The next support level is at $84.00, followed by $80.00.
Note: There are two main pricing mechanisms in the gold market: the spot market, where prices correspond to immediate delivery; and the futures market, where prices correspond to a future agreed-upon delivery date. Due to year-end liquidity factors, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
After a sharp pullback from near its all-time high of $5,600 last week, bargain hunters returned to the market. Spot gold was trading around $4,952 during the session, having fallen to a four-week low of around $4,402 on Monday before rebounding.
April gold futures rose 6.93% to $4,975.00 per ounce, a daily increase of $322.4. March silver futures surged 11.6% to $85.94 per ounce, a daily increase of $8.931. Silver experienced a record single-day plunge of 27% last Friday, followed by a further 6% drop on Monday, before rebounding strongly on Tuesday, with intraday gains approaching 10%. Overall volatility in the precious metals market remains high.
Both precious metals rose sharply today, also benefiting from a slight decline in overall market risk appetite compared to overnight; at the same time, a weaker US dollar index and stronger crude oil prices also provided favorable support for gold and silver prices.
Fundamental Outlook
This round of sharp sell-off in precious metals is mainly a technical market movement, driven by position liquidation and margin-related settlements, rather than a significant deterioration in fundamentals. The macroeconomic backdrop for gold still provides strong support.
"I believe the recent decline is a technical correction within a long-term uptrend," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zana Metals. He added that the core fundamental factors that have driven gold higher in recent years remain solid. "The market is likely entering a consolidation phase, with key support at $4,400 and resistance around $5,100."
Despite sharp short-term fluctuations, analysts generally expect the current bull market to continue, with gold potentially hitting new record highs this year. Jeffrey Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group, stated, "Investors' concerns about the economic and political situation remain, and we expect gold and silver prices to resume their long-term upward trend at a more stable pace."
Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments. However, without new positive catalysts, gold may enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Meanwhile, signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran could weaken safe-haven demand to some extent; a renewed strengthening of the US dollar would also limit the upside potential of spot gold.
Market drivers: US-Iran tensions, US-India trade, and a rebounding US dollar.
Tensions between the US and Iran have shown signs of easing. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Tuesday that he had instructed his foreign minister to "seek fair and just negotiations with the United States," and reports indicate that both sides plan to send senior envoys to Istanbul later this week to discuss Iran's nuclear program. This statement comes after Trump said Iran was "taking negotiations seriously."
On Monday, Trump announced that the United States and India had reached a trade agreement: the tariffs imposed by the United States on Indian goods will be reduced from about 50% to 18%; in return, India will increase its purchases of U.S. goods, pledging to buy up to $500 billion worth of goods.
The US dollar index (DXY) is currently trading around 97.40, near a one-week high, after stabilizing and rebounding last week after falling to a four-year low.
Positive U.S. manufacturing data reinforced the Federal Reserve's view of remaining patient before initiating monetary easing. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI jumped sharply to 52.6 in January from 47.9 in December, far exceeding market expectations of 48.5; the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 52.4 from 51.9.
Technical Analysis
(COMEX Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678)
April gold futures prices formed a large and bearish "key reversal" downtrend on the daily chart last week, a chart clue indicating a market top. The next upside target for the bulls is a close above the strong resistance level of $5,250.00. The next near-term downside target for the bears is to push futures prices below the strong technical support level of this week's low of $4,423.20. First resistance is at today's high of $4,977.70, followed by $5,000.00. First support is at $4,750.00, followed by the overnight low of $4,690.20.
The next upside price target for March silver futures bulls is a close above the strong technical resistance level of $100.00. The next downside price target for bears is a close below the strong support level of $70.00. The first resistance level is at today's high of $89.10, followed by $90.00. The next support level is at $84.00, followed by $80.00.
Note: There are two main pricing mechanisms in the gold market: the spot market, where prices correspond to immediate delivery; and the futures market, where prices correspond to a future agreed-upon delivery date. Due to year-end liquidity factors, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
