Strong US jobs data helped gold and silver maintain their gains.
2026-02-12 01:03:47
Gold and silver prices rose around midday on Wednesday (February 11), with silver leading the gains again. Despite stronger-than-expected US employment data pushing up the dollar index and US Treasury yields, which is favorable for the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy stance, the precious metals market held onto most of its significant overnight gains. With ongoing geopolitical tensions, safe-haven demand became the main theme of the market today.
April gold futures rose $65.60 to $5,096.60 an ounce; March silver futures rose $3.121 to $83.505 an ounce.
The U.S. Labor Department announced today that nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, far exceeding the revised 48,000 increase in December and significantly surpassing market expectations of 55,000. This is the strongest nonfarm payroll data since December 2024.
Surprisingly, despite the strong jobs report pushing up US Treasury yields and the dollar index, while US stocks rose, gold and silver futures held onto their significant overnight gains. Most market observers had expected the strong jobs data to put downward pressure on precious metals, primarily based on the assumption that a stronger US economy would reduce the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
According to Bloomberg, the market now sees the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March as below 15%, with the federal funds rate expected to remain in the 3.5%–3.75% range. CNBC reported after today's jobs data release that traders and investors have adjusted their expectations, believing the Fed may only cut rates twice this year, rather than taking immediate action.
Today's gold and silver market movements indicate that the core supply and demand fundamentals—namely, safe-haven demand, hoarding behavior, and central bank gold purchases—remain robust, and their impact has outweighed the negative expectations brought about by "a stronger US economy and fewer interest rate cuts."
The Chinese market continues to squeeze silver supply.
The report states that although silver volatility has decreased after a period of sharp fluctuations, the continued depletion of inventories by Chinese investment and industrial demand has kept silver supply tight.
The report points out: "Domestic producers and traders are struggling to fulfill backlogged orders, pushing up near-term prices and causing spot prices to be higher than forward prices, resulting in a spot premium. The premium of near-month contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has hit a record high, indicating that the market has an extreme preference for spot delivery."
Zhang Ting, a senior analyst at Sichuan Tianfu Bank, said: "Such a large spot premium stems from the inventory crisis and the depletion of deliverable goods. Institutions still have the incentive to continue squeezing the market to make profits."
Meanwhile, short sellers on the Shanghai Gold Exchange who bet on a decline in silver prices have been paying deferred fees to long positions since late December to avoid delivery, highlighting the scarcity of silver available for settlement.
Overview of peripheral markets
Among today's key external markets, the US dollar index strengthened; crude oil prices rose, trading around $65 per barrel; and the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note was 4.172%.
Technical Analysis
(COMEX Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678)
April Gold Futures <br /> Bulls' next target: A close firmly above the strong resistance level of $5250.00. Bears' short-term target: A break below last week's low of $4670.00. Strong support: First resistance: Overnight high of $5144.50, followed by $5200.00. First support: Today's low of $5036.30, followed by $5000.00.
(COMEX silver daily chart source: FX678)
March Silver Futures <br /> Bulls' next target: A close above last week's high of $92.015, a strong resistance level. Bears' short-term target: A break below the February low of $63.90, a strong support level. First resistance: Overnight high of $86.12, followed by $87.50. First support: Overnight low of $80.41, followed by $80.00.
Note: There are two main pricing mechanisms in the gold market: the spot market, where prices correspond to immediate purchase and delivery; and the futures market, which sets prices for future delivery. Due to year-end position adjustments and market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
April gold futures rose $65.60 to $5,096.60 an ounce; March silver futures rose $3.121 to $83.505 an ounce.
The U.S. Labor Department announced today that nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, far exceeding the revised 48,000 increase in December and significantly surpassing market expectations of 55,000. This is the strongest nonfarm payroll data since December 2024.
Surprisingly, despite the strong jobs report pushing up US Treasury yields and the dollar index, while US stocks rose, gold and silver futures held onto their significant overnight gains. Most market observers had expected the strong jobs data to put downward pressure on precious metals, primarily based on the assumption that a stronger US economy would reduce the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
According to Bloomberg, the market now sees the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March as below 15%, with the federal funds rate expected to remain in the 3.5%–3.75% range. CNBC reported after today's jobs data release that traders and investors have adjusted their expectations, believing the Fed may only cut rates twice this year, rather than taking immediate action.
Today's gold and silver market movements indicate that the core supply and demand fundamentals—namely, safe-haven demand, hoarding behavior, and central bank gold purchases—remain robust, and their impact has outweighed the negative expectations brought about by "a stronger US economy and fewer interest rate cuts."
The Chinese market continues to squeeze silver supply.
The report states that although silver volatility has decreased after a period of sharp fluctuations, the continued depletion of inventories by Chinese investment and industrial demand has kept silver supply tight.
The report points out: "Domestic producers and traders are struggling to fulfill backlogged orders, pushing up near-term prices and causing spot prices to be higher than forward prices, resulting in a spot premium. The premium of near-month contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has hit a record high, indicating that the market has an extreme preference for spot delivery."
Zhang Ting, a senior analyst at Sichuan Tianfu Bank, said: "Such a large spot premium stems from the inventory crisis and the depletion of deliverable goods. Institutions still have the incentive to continue squeezing the market to make profits."
Meanwhile, short sellers on the Shanghai Gold Exchange who bet on a decline in silver prices have been paying deferred fees to long positions since late December to avoid delivery, highlighting the scarcity of silver available for settlement.
Overview of peripheral markets
Among today's key external markets, the US dollar index strengthened; crude oil prices rose, trading around $65 per barrel; and the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note was 4.172%.
Technical Analysis
(COMEX Gold Daily Chart Source: FX678)
April Gold Futures <br /> Bulls' next target: A close firmly above the strong resistance level of $5250.00. Bears' short-term target: A break below last week's low of $4670.00. Strong support: First resistance: Overnight high of $5144.50, followed by $5200.00. First support: Today's low of $5036.30, followed by $5000.00.
(COMEX silver daily chart source: FX678)
March Silver Futures <br /> Bulls' next target: A close above last week's high of $92.015, a strong resistance level. Bears' short-term target: A break below the February low of $63.90, a strong support level. First resistance: Overnight high of $86.12, followed by $87.50. First support: Overnight low of $80.41, followed by $80.00.
Note: There are two main pricing mechanisms in the gold market: the spot market, where prices correspond to immediate purchase and delivery; and the futures market, which sets prices for future delivery. Due to year-end position adjustments and market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
