Super Week is Coming: A Global Market Outlook Amid the Lunar New Year Holiday and Data Intensity
2026-02-13 20:32:29
Next week (February 16-20) coincides with the 2026 Spring Festival holiday and the concentrated release of key data and central bank events from multiple countries, presenting a crucial trading window for global markets. From CFTC positioning, inflation and GDP data from various countries, to central bank decisions, meeting minutes, and PMI indicators, a multitude of core information will be released. Coupled with holiday closures and international summits, each event could trigger significant market volatility. Investors need to plan ahead to mitigate potential risks and opportunities.
On Saturday, the CFTC will release COT positions. We can observe whether institutions will make any significant moves to replenish their positions in precious metals.
Monday (February 16th) is Lunar New Year's Eve. The 2026 Spring Festival will begin on February 15th and end on February 23rd, a total of nine days. Note that on this day, US stocks will be closed for President's Day, but CME futures will trade for half a day.
The 2026 India AI Impact Summit will be held from February 16 to 20. Canada will release its CPI, and Japan will release its adjusted GDP for the fourth quarter.
On Tuesday (February 17), the UK will release its December wage growth and unemployment rate, Germany will release its January CPI, Germany and the Eurozone will release their ZEW economic sentiment indices, and the US will release its February New York Fed manufacturing index.
Australia released its February monetary policy minutes, revealing that the Reserve Bank of Australia had raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% on February 3.
On Wednesday (February 18), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision, Japan will hold a prime ministerial election which may affect the yen, Japan will release its January trade balance representing imports and exports, the UK will release its CPI and retail sales index, and the US will release its durable goods orders and capacity utilization rate.
Federal Reserve Governors Barr and Daly will deliver speeches on artificial intelligence, employment, and the economy.
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its FOMC interest rate meeting early Thursday morning (February 19), and the US will release the number of continuing jobless claims this week, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February, and the US adjusted January existing home sales rate in the evening.
Neel Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member and president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, delivered a speech.
Friday (February 20th) is also the highlight of the week, with China announcing the 1-year and 5-year LPR interest rates for February, and the US, UK, France, Germany, and the Eurozone releasing their February SPGI manufacturing PMIs, which are important reference indicators for the equity market.
The US released its December PCE price index. Although it was a belated release, it is still the most important inflation data for the Federal Reserve. The University of Michigan's February consumer confidence index and inflation expectations will be released later. We can observe US inflation in conjunction with the PCE price index.
In addition to core economic data, investors should be wary of three potential risks: First, events such as the Japanese prime ministerial election and the Indian AI summit may trigger market sentiment fluctuations; second, speeches and decisions by central bank officials such as the Federal Reserve, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Reserve Bank of Australia may release policy signals that could quickly revise market expectations and cause short-term fluctuations in corresponding currencies; and third, unexpected changes in global manufacturing PMI and US PCE data will affect sentiment in equity, foreign exchange, and commodity markets.
CFTC positioning data released; precious metals institutional activity becomes available.
On Saturday, the CFTC will release COT positions. We can observe whether institutions will make any significant moves to replenish their positions in precious metals.
With the Lunar New Year holiday coinciding with market closures, multiple countries' data releases and summits will be held simultaneously.
Monday (February 16th) is Lunar New Year's Eve. The 2026 Spring Festival will begin on February 15th and end on February 23rd, a total of nine days. Note that on this day, US stocks will be closed for President's Day, but CME futures will trade for half a day.
The 2026 India AI Impact Summit will be held from February 16 to 20. Canada will release its CPI, and Japan will release its adjusted GDP for the fourth quarter.
Data from Europe and the US comes first, followed by the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes.
On Tuesday (February 17), the UK will release its December wage growth and unemployment rate, Germany will release its January CPI, Germany and the Eurozone will release their ZEW economic sentiment indices, and the US will release its February New York Fed manufacturing index.
Australia released its February monetary policy minutes, revealing that the Reserve Bank of Australia had raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% on February 3.
Central bank decisions and data from multiple countries draw attention to Japanese politics.
On Wednesday (February 18), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision, Japan will hold a prime ministerial election which may affect the yen, Japan will release its January trade balance representing imports and exports, the UK will release its CPI and retail sales index, and the US will release its durable goods orders and capacity utilization rate.
Federal Reserve Governors Barr and Daly will deliver speeches on artificial intelligence, employment, and the economy.
The Federal Reserve minutes have been released, and US employment and manufacturing data have been updated.
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its FOMC interest rate meeting early Thursday morning (February 19), and the US will release the number of continuing jobless claims this week, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February, and the US adjusted January existing home sales rate in the evening.
Neel Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member and president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, delivered a speech.
Global PMI and PCE data releases conclude; LPR becomes the core focus.
Friday (February 20th) is also the highlight of the week, with China announcing the 1-year and 5-year LPR interest rates for February, and the US, UK, France, Germany, and the Eurozone releasing their February SPGI manufacturing PMIs, which are important reference indicators for the equity market.
The US released its December PCE price index. Although it was a belated release, it is still the most important inflation data for the Federal Reserve. The University of Michigan's February consumer confidence index and inflation expectations will be released later. We can observe US inflation in conjunction with the PCE price index.
Risk Warning
In addition to core economic data, investors should be wary of three potential risks: First, events such as the Japanese prime ministerial election and the Indian AI summit may trigger market sentiment fluctuations; second, speeches and decisions by central bank officials such as the Federal Reserve, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Reserve Bank of Australia may release policy signals that could quickly revise market expectations and cause short-term fluctuations in corresponding currencies; and third, unexpected changes in global manufacturing PMI and US PCE data will affect sentiment in equity, foreign exchange, and commodity markets.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
