Gold prices retreated slightly and remained range-bound.
2026-02-16 09:00:04
Spot gold prices edged down 0.3% to $5,025 an ounce in early Asian trading on Monday, after rising about 2.4% in the previous session, returning above $5,000.
The short-term pullback is mainly due to technical position adjustments and profit-taking by long positions, rather than a significant weakening of fundamentals. Market focus remains on US inflation data and its impact on the path of monetary policy.
Latest data shows that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month in January, lower than the higher increase previously feared by the market, easing pressure on inflation to accelerate again.
This modest data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more aggressive easing policy. The Sucden Financial Research team pointed out that after the inflation data was released, the interest rate market clearly adjusted its pricing of future policy paths.
The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to implement more than two rate cuts in 2026, with the first cut likely occurring between June and July. Rising expectations of rate cuts typically weaken the dollar and lower real interest rates, thereby increasing the attractiveness of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
Looking back at recent price movements, gold prices surged to over $5,595 per ounce in late January, setting a new record high. A surge in speculative buying pushed the rally to extremes, but the market subsequently corrected quickly, with prices briefly falling below $4,500 at the end of the month.
Since its low, gold prices have gradually recovered about half of their losses amid fluctuations and are currently trading above $5,000, indicating that market sentiment is becoming more rational.
From a daily chart perspective, gold prices have entered a period of high-level consolidation after experiencing significant volatility. The $5,000 level has become an important psychological support level, and prices are currently fluctuating around this area.
The short-term moving averages have turned upwards again, indicating that the momentum for a phased rebound has recovered. However, the overall volatility is still significantly higher than normal, reflecting that market sentiment has not yet fully stabilized.
If gold prices firmly establish themselves above $5050 and break through the $5100 resistance zone, they could potentially challenge previous highs. On the downside, $5000 is the first line of defense, followed by the $4950 area.
A break below this range could trigger renewed technical selling pressure. In terms of momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from overbought territory to neutral territory, suggesting the market is transitioning from extreme sentiment to equilibrium.
Overall, although gold prices have seen a short-term pullback, medium-term support remains amid rising expectations of interest rate cuts.
Editor's Review:
The current correction in gold prices is more of a technical adjustment than a trend reversal. Moderate US inflation and rising expectations of interest rate cuts provide fundamental support. $5,000 has become a key level; if it holds, gold may maintain a high-level consolidation with a slightly bullish bias.
If the macroeconomic environment shifts back to risk aversion or real interest rates decline more rapidly, gold prices still have upward potential.
The short-term pullback is mainly due to technical position adjustments and profit-taking by long positions, rather than a significant weakening of fundamentals. Market focus remains on US inflation data and its impact on the path of monetary policy.
Latest data shows that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-on-month in January, lower than the higher increase previously feared by the market, easing pressure on inflation to accelerate again.
This modest data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more aggressive easing policy. The Sucden Financial Research team pointed out that after the inflation data was released, the interest rate market clearly adjusted its pricing of future policy paths.
The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to implement more than two rate cuts in 2026, with the first cut likely occurring between June and July. Rising expectations of rate cuts typically weaken the dollar and lower real interest rates, thereby increasing the attractiveness of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
Looking back at recent price movements, gold prices surged to over $5,595 per ounce in late January, setting a new record high. A surge in speculative buying pushed the rally to extremes, but the market subsequently corrected quickly, with prices briefly falling below $4,500 at the end of the month.
Since its low, gold prices have gradually recovered about half of their losses amid fluctuations and are currently trading above $5,000, indicating that market sentiment is becoming more rational.
From a daily chart perspective, gold prices have entered a period of high-level consolidation after experiencing significant volatility. The $5,000 level has become an important psychological support level, and prices are currently fluctuating around this area.
The short-term moving averages have turned upwards again, indicating that the momentum for a phased rebound has recovered. However, the overall volatility is still significantly higher than normal, reflecting that market sentiment has not yet fully stabilized.
If gold prices firmly establish themselves above $5050 and break through the $5100 resistance zone, they could potentially challenge previous highs. On the downside, $5000 is the first line of defense, followed by the $4950 area.
A break below this range could trigger renewed technical selling pressure. In terms of momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from overbought territory to neutral territory, suggesting the market is transitioning from extreme sentiment to equilibrium.
Overall, although gold prices have seen a short-term pullback, medium-term support remains amid rising expectations of interest rate cuts.
Editor's Review:
The current correction in gold prices is more of a technical adjustment than a trend reversal. Moderate US inflation and rising expectations of interest rate cuts provide fundamental support. $5,000 has become a key level; if it holds, gold may maintain a high-level consolidation with a slightly bullish bias.
If the macroeconomic environment shifts back to risk aversion or real interest rates decline more rapidly, gold prices still have upward potential.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
